A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Trends in Natural Resource Economics in JEEM 1974–1997: Breakpoint and Nonparametric Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to identify trends in natural resource economics as reflected in publications in JEEM over the period since its inception in 1974. A secondary purpose is to suggest an explanation for any patterns we observe in the data. The data base consists of all articles published during this period, classified by topic and method. We apply statistical techniques of increasing sophistication to determine the existence of trends, and interpret the results by appealing to what we characterize as forces of demand and supply.     

Relatedness and avoidance of inbreeding in the lizard, Tiliqua rugosa

Two potential mechanisms for reducing the level of inbreeding, sex-biased dispersal and kin avoidance, were examined in the Australian sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa. The home range centres, and the genotypes at four polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci were determined for adult lizards in a 70-ha study area near Mount Mary, South Australia. From estimates of genetic relatedness, females were as closely related to other females as they were to males, both within the whole study area, and within home ranges. Similarly, males were as closely related to other males as they were to females. This suggests that dispersal in the population is not sex-biased. Sleepy lizards form monogamous pairs during the spring. Partners were less closely related to each other than to other potential partners in the home range area. This suggests active choice of unrelated partners. The mechanism for recognising related from unrelated individuals is unknown, but the behaviour could reduce inbreeding. Received: 7 November 1998 / Accepted: 30 May 1999     

Developmental Instability in Fragmented Populations of Prairie Phlox: A Cautionary Tale

Abstract: Considerable attention has recently been focused on using levels of developmental instability among members of a population to detect environmental or genetic stresses on animals or plants. It is not yet clear, however, that high developmental instability in a sample of individuals always indicates environmental stress or poor genetic quality. We studied 13 fragmented populations of prairie phlox (   Phlox pilosa L.) to test the hypothesis that developmental instability should decrease with increasing population size—as expected if small populations suffer genetic problems associated with inbreeding or are exposed to more environmental stress than larger populations. We used two different measures of developmental instability, each calculated for two different traits: radial asymmetry of flowers (for petal width and petal length) and modular fluctuating asymmetry of leaves (  for leaf widths at two points along the leaf  ). There were weak but significant correlations among individuals for four of six pairwise combinations of these measures. Surprisingly, three of our four measures of developmental instability showed strong population size effects that were opposite to those expected: developmental instability increased with population size. We conclude that measures of developmental instability cannot be applied uncritically for biomonitoring without considerable knowledge of developmental mechanisms, natural history, and population biology of the species in question.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

Darwin's Fox: A Distinct Endangered Species in a Vanishing Habitat

The temperate rain forest of Chiloé Island, Chile, is inhabited by an endemic fox ( Dusicyon fulvipes ) first described by Charles Darwin and now designated Darwin's fox. Despite morphological differences, Darwin's fox has been considered only an insular subspecies of the mainland chilla fox ( D. griseus ). This follows the assumption that the island population, with an estimated population of less than 500, has been separated from the mainland chilla fox for only about 15,000 years and may have received occasional immigrants from the mainland. Consequently, this island population has not been protected as endangered or bred in captivity. Recently, a population of Darwin's fox was discovered on the Chilean mainland 600 km north of Chiloé Island. This population exists in sympatry with chilla and possibly culpeo ( D. culpaeus ) foxes, which suggests that Darwin's fox may be reproductively isolated. To clarify the phylogenetic position of Darwin's fox, we analyzed 344 bp of mitochondrial DNA control-region sequence of the three species of Chilean foxes. Darwin's foxes from the island and mainland populations compose a monophyletic group distinct from the two other Chilean fox species. This indicates that Darwin's fox was probably an early inhabitant of central Chile, and that its present distribution on the mainland may be a relict of a once much wider distribution. Our results highlight the ability of molecular genetic techniques to uncover historical relationships masked by recent events, such as local extinctions. The "rediscovery" of Darwin's fox as a distinct species implies that greater significance should be given to the protection of this species and its unique habitat and to documenting the extent of its mainland distribution.     

Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

A number of waste life cycle assessment (LCA) models have been gradually developed since the early 1990s, in a number of countries, usually independently from each other. Large discrepancies in results have been observed among different waste LCA models, although it has also been shown that results from different LCA studies can be consistent. This paper is an attempt to identify, review and analyse methodologies and technical assumptions used in various parts of selected waste LCA models. Several criteria were identified, which could have significant impacts on the results, such as the functional unit, system boundaries, waste composition and energy modelling. The modelling assumptions of waste management processes, ranging from collection, transportation, intermediate facilities, recycling, thermal treatment, biological treatment, and landfilling, are obviously critical when comparing waste LCA models.This review infers that some of the differences in waste LCA models are inherent to the time they were developed. It is expected that models developed later, benefit from past modelling assumptions and knowledge and issues. Models developed in different countries furthermore rely on geographic specificities that have an impact on the results of waste LCA models. The review concludes that more effort should be employed to harmonise and validate non-geographic assumptions to strengthen waste LCA modelling.     

Chloroethene dechlorination in acidic groundwater: Implications for combining fenton's treatment with natural attenuation

A sulfuric acid leak in 1988 at a chloroethene‐contaminated groundwater site at the Naval Air Station Pensacola has resulted in a long‐term record of the behavior of chloroethene contaminants at low pH and a unique opportunity to assess the potential impact of source area treatment technologies, which involve acidification of the groundwater environment (e.g., Fenton's‐based in situ chemical oxidation), on downgradient natural attenuation processes. The greater than 75 percent decrease in trichloroethene (TCE) concentrations and the shift in contaminant composition toward predominantly reduced daughter products (dichloroethene [DCE] and vinyl chloride [VC]) that were observed along a 30‐m groundwater flow path characterized by highly acidic conditions (pH = 3.5 ± 0.4) demonstrated that chloroethene reductive dechlorination can continue to be efficient under persistent acidic conditions. The detection of Dehalococcoides‐type bacteria within the sulfuric acid/chloroethene co‐contaminant plume was consistent with biotic chloroethene reductive dechlorination. Microcosm studies conducted with ¹⁴C‐TCE and ¹⁴C‐VC confirmed biotic reductive dechlorination in sediment collected from within the sulfuric acid/chloroethene co‐contaminant plume. Microcosms prepared with sediment from two other locations within the acid plume, however, demonstrated only a limited mineralization to ¹⁴CO₂ and ¹⁴CO, which was attributed to abiotic degradation because no significant differences were observed between experimental and autoclaved control treatments. These results indicated that biotic and abiotic mechanisms contributed to chloroethene attenuation in the acid plume at NAS Pensacola and that remediation techniques involving acidification of the groundwater environment (e.g., Fenton's‐based source area treatment) do not necessarily preclude efficient chloroethene degradation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

End‐state land uses,sustainably protective systems,and risk management: A challenge for remediation and multigenerational stewardship

This article discusses creating a sustainably protective engineered and human management system in perpetuity for sites with long‐lived radiological and chemical hazards. This is essential at this time because the federal government is evaluating its property as assets and attempting to reduce its holdings, while seeking to assure that health and ecosystems are not put at risk. To assist those who have a stake in the remediation, management, and stewardship of these and analogous privately owned sites, this article discusses current end‐state planning by reviewing the federal government's accelerated efforts to reduce its footprint and how those efforts relate to sustainability. The article also provides a list of questions organized around six elements of risk management and primary, secondary, and tertiary disease and injury prevention. Throughout the article, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is used as an example of an organization that seeks to reduce its footprint, manage its budget, and be a steward of the sites that it is responsible for. However, the approach and questions are appropriate for land controlled by the Department of Defense (DOD), the General Services Administration (GSA), and other public and private owners of sites with residual contamination. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Concepts for sediment restoration on the palos verdes shelf,California

This article summarizes a study conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station to develop technical information and to evaluate the engineering feasibility of restoration alternatives for DDT-and PCB-contaminated sediments on the Palos Verdes shelf and slope near Los Angeles, California. The study evaluated the nonremoval alternative of in-place capping of contaminated sediments on the shelf and slope; removal of contaminated sediments using conventional and specialized dredging equipment and deep ocean mining equipment; treatment of contaminated sediments; and disposal of contaminated sediments in confined (diked) disposal facilities (CDFs), contained aquatic disposal (CAD) sites, upland landfills, and deep ocean basin sites. Cost estimates of the various alternatives were also prepared. This article concludes that restoration of the contaminated sediments is technically feasible. Sediments on the shelf and slope can be removed using available dredging technologies for deep water environments. In-place capping, CAD, and CDF alternatives are technically feasible. The deep ocean basin disposal alternative is not feasible from the technical or regulatory standpoint. The treatment alternative is not feasible from the implementability and economic standpoint.