The health benefits of reduced tropospheric ozone in California

Californians are exposed daily to concentrations of ozone (O3) that are among the highest in the United States. Recently, the state adopted a new 8-hr ambient standard of 0.070 ppm, more stringent than the current federal standard. The new standard is based on controlled human studies and on dozens of epidemiologic studies reporting associations between O3 at current ambient levels and a wide range of adverse health outcomes. Clearly, the new O3 standards will require further reductions in the precursor pollutants and additional expenditures for pollution control. Therefore, it is important to quantify the incremental health benefits of moving from current conditions to the new California standard. In this paper, a standard methodology is applied to quantify the health benefits associated with O3 concentration reductions in California. O3 concentration reductions are estimated using ambient monitoring data and a proportional rollback approach in which changes are specific to each air basin, and control strategies may impact concentrations both below and above the standard. Health impacts are based on published epidemiologic studies, including O3-related mortality and morbidity, and economic values are assigned to these outcomes based on willingness-to-pay and cost-of-illness studies. Central estimates of this research indicate that attaining the California 8-hr standard, relative to current concentrations, would result in annual reductions of 630 cases of premature mortality, 4200 respiratory hospital admissions, 660 pediatric emergency room visits for asthma, 4.7 million days of school loss, and 3.1 million minor restricted activity days, with a median estimated economic value of dollar 4.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these findings are robust with respect to exposure assessment methods but are influenced by assumptions about the slope of the concentration-response function in threshold models and the magnitude of the O3-mortality relationship. Although uncertainties exist for several components of the methodology, these results indicate that the benefits of reducing O3 to the California standard may be substantial and that further research on the shape of the O3-mortality concentration-response function and economic value of O3-related mortality would best reduce these uncertainties.     

The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 x 0(-5)), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 x 10(-6)), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 x 10(-6)), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 x 10(-6)). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R(2) between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be estimated with reasonable precision and summarized using simple regression models. The results should be useful for informing future decisions about power-plant locations and controls.     

The impact of storm events on a riverbed system and its hydraulic conductivity at a site of induced infiltration

The spatial and temporal variability of riverbed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) was investigated at a site of induced infiltration, associated with a municipal well field, to assess the impact of high-stage events on scour and subsequently the riverbed K(v). Such impacts are important when considering the potential loss of riverbank filtration capacity due to storm events. The study site, in and along the Great Miami River in southwest Ohio, overlaid a highly productive glacial-outwash aquifer. A three-layer model for this system was conceptualized: a top layer of transient sediment, a second layer comprising large sediment resistant to scour, but clogged with finer sediment (the armor/colmation layer), and a third layer that was transitional to the underlying higher-K(v) aquifer. One location was studied in detail to confirm and quantify the conceptual model. Methods included seepage meters, heat-flow modeling, grain-size analyses, laboratory permeameter tests, slug tests and the use of scour chains and pressure-load cells to directly measure the amount of sediment scour and re-deposition. Seepage meter measured riverbed K(v) ranged from 0.017 to 1.7 m/d with a geometric mean of 0.19 m/d. Heat-transport model-calibrated estimates were even lower, ranging from 0.0061 to 0.046 m/d with a mean of 0.017 m/d. The relatively low K(v) was indicative of the clogged armor layer. In contrast, slug tests in the underlying riverbed sediment yielded K(v) values an order of magnitude greater. There was a linear relationship between scour chain measured scour and event intensity with a maximum scour of only 0.098 m. Load-cell pressure sensor data over a 7-month period indicated a total sediment-height fluctuation of 0.42 m and a maximum storm-event scour of 0.28 m. Scour data indicated that the assumed armor/colmation layer almost always remained intact. Based on measured layer conductivities and thicknesses, the overall K(v) of this conceptualized system was 1.6 m/d. Sensitivity analyses indicated that even complete scour of the armor/colmation layer would likely increase the overall K(v) only by a factor of 1.5. Most scour events observed removed only the transient sediment, having very little effect on the entire system indicating low risk of losing filtration capacity during storms. The research, however, focused on the point bar, depositional side of the river. More research of the entire river profile is necessary.