Environmental Assessment Framework for Policy Applications: Life Cycle Assessment,External Costs and Multi-criteria Analysis

The paper presents a framework for the analysis of external costs of environmental burdens, namely an impact pathway analysis, often coupled with the inventory stage of life cycle assessment (LCA). The ground rule is: quantify as much as possible in terms of burdens (pollutant emissions, etc.), impacts, and their monetary equivalent, then use multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for any remaining impacts that are considered to be too uncertain or defy quantification through to monetization. Although MCA could be used directly on estimates of burdens or impacts, monetary valuation provides a mechanism for consistent weighting of impacts categories based on assessment of public preference. Further advantages of extending LCA through detailed impact assessment combined with monetary valuation are that it greatly simplifies MCA by combining a large number of different environmental impact categories, thereby avoiding an unmanageably large number of criteria, and also facilitates cost benefit analysis (CBA). The risks are noted of inappropriate use of the tools or interpretation/use of the results, and recommendations are made for improved practice. These points are illustrated with examples. The key messages are: (1) that policies should be targeted correctly to give a clear signal which source of a burden should be reduced by how much; (2) that analysts should take into account the needs of policy makers and the link between the analysis and possible policy applications; and (3) that current LCA practice gives limited guidance in both areas, largely through a lack of consideration of the relative and absolute importance of different types of impact. However, this is precisely the strength of external costs analysis, particularly when used with MCA.     

Sub-cooled and flashing liquid jets and droplet dispersion I. Overview and model implementation/validation

Many accidents involve two-phase releases of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. This paper describes the results of a third phase of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The aim of the project is to increase the understanding of the behaviour of sub-cooled non-flashing and superheated flashing liquid jets, and to improve the prediction of initial droplet size, droplet dispersion and rainout.Phase III of the JIP first included scaled experiments for materials with a range of volatilities (water, cyclohexane, butane, propane and gasoline). These experiments were carried out by Cardiff University including measurements of flow rate and initial droplet size across the full relevant range of superheats. See the companion paper II for further details of these experiments and the derivation of new refined correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter. Furthermore large-scale butane experiments were carried out by INERIS (France) to ensure that for more realistic scenarios the derived droplet size correlations are accurate.Model validation and model improvements were carried out by DNV Software, including validation of release rate and initial droplet size against the above scaled and large-scale experiments. New correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) were implemented into the Phast discharge model. These were compared against a range of other droplet size and rainout correlations published in the literature, in conjunction with validation against an extensive set of experiments. It was shown that the new droplet size correlation agrees better against experimental data than the existing Phast correlation. To further improve the rainout prediction, the Phast dispersion model (UDM) was also extended to allow simultaneous modelling of a range of droplet sizes and distributed rainout (rather than rainout at one point).     

In harm's way: children's environmental health

2002 has been a landmark year for children's environmental health, with several major international conferences dedicated to the issue and the publication of numerous reports and studies. In this article we review how and why children's health has emerged as a key environmental policy issue and what the analytical sciences can contribute.     

Evaluation and Improvement of a Dry Deposition Model using SO2 and O3 Measurements over a Mixed Forest

A dry deposition model (RDM) for operational application has beenevaluated and modified in the present study. Field measurements of friction velocity and dry deposition velocity of SO₂ andO₃ over a mixed forest have been used to evaluate RDM. It was found that RDM predicts friction velocities very close to measurements and thus it can predict reasonable aerodynamic resistance. RDM overestimated O₃ deposition during dry nighttime conditions and underestimated both O₃ andSO₂deposition for early morning hours. It could not predict the mean diurnal variation in deposition velocity for either O₃ or SO₂ deposition under wet surface conditions. Modifications have been made for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition based on the comparison of results and based upon additional published data. Compared to an earlier version of RDM, the modified versionpredicts better results for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition,especially under rain and dew conditions.     

Family Forest Landowners’ Interest in Forest Carbon Offset Programs: Focus Group Findings from the Lake States,USA

In 2012, focus groups were organized with individuals owning 20+ acres in the Lake States region of the United States (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to discuss various issues related to forest carbon offsetting. Focus group participants consisted of landowners who had responded to an earlier mail-back survey (2010) on forest carbon offsets. Two focus groups were held per state with an average of eight participants each (49 total). While landowner participant types varied, overall convergence was reached on several key issues. In general, discussion results found that the current payment amounts offered for carbon credits are not likely, on their own, to encourage participation in carbon markets. Landowners are most interested in other benefits they can attain through carbon management (e.g., improved stand species mix, wildlife, and trails). Interestingly, landowner perceptions about the condition of their own forest land were most indicative of prospective interest in carbon management. Landowners who felt that their forest was currently in poor condition, or did not meet their forest ownership objectives, were most interested in participating. While the initial survey sought landowner opinions about carbon markets, a majority of focus group participants expressed interest in general carbon management as a means to achieve reduced property taxes.     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.     

Visitor payback: panacea or pandora's box for conservation in the UK?

This paper assesses the efficacy and relevance of visitor payback as a tool for recreation management in the UK. Visitor payback is essentially a voluntary payment made by visitors towards conservation, differing significantly from the compulsory tourist or bed tax practised in other countries. Attention has recently focused on this technique as a means to supplement the limited funds available for conservation work. However, whilst there are several schemes operating in the UK, there is a dearth of published research that has critically reviewed the concept and operationalization of visitor payback. The research reported here utilizes primary and secondary data to include case studies, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The findings reveal that visitor payback is a complex concept to evaluate, both in theory and practice, involving a range of benefits and disbenefits. Financial benefits appear less prevalent than the more esoteric ‘feel good’ factor, increased awareness about conservation and partnerships that are evident in payback schemes. Support for visitor payback varies considerably with visitors strongly receptive, whilst the tourism business interests are more cautious. It is concluded that visitor payback needs to be re-conceptualized in more positive terms as a ‘visitor investment scheme’ where conservation takes precedence over financial considerations. Further research is required to try and demystify the tourism business resistance to visitor payback as its potential seems somewhat constrained in the present climate.     

California's graduated driver license law: Effect on teenage drivers' deaths through 2005

PROBLEM: While many researchers believe Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) laws save lives by imposing restrictions and delayed licensure on drivers under age 18, longer term effects on older teenagers have not been studied. METHOD: The effects of California's strict GDL law on deaths of drivers ages 16-19 were analyzed for 1995-2005 using Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis of Fatality Analysis Reporting System mortality data. RESULTS: The two methods yielded similar results. IRR analysis found California 16-year-old drivers subject to the GDL experienced a 15% fatality decline (95% CI, 0.70-0.99), while 18 year-old drivers experienced a 15% increase (95% CI, 1.02-1.27). ARIMA analysis found 16 year-old drivers experienced a near-significant 20% fatality decline (p=0.07), while 18 year-olds experienced a 24% increase (p=0.01). Unlicensed teenage drivers and older teen drivers driving alone and transporting teenage passengers suffered significant fatality increases. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION: California's GDL may negatively affect older teenagers and other driver subpopulations and merits reevaluation.     

Response of sea urchin pluteus larvae (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) to reduced seawater pH: a comparison among a tropical, temperate, and a polar species

Ocean acidification, as a result of increased atmospheric CO₂, is predicted to lower the pH of seawater to between pH 7.6 and 7.8 over the next 100 years. The greatest changes are expected in polar waters. Our research aimed to examine how echinoid larvae are affected by lower pH, and if effects are more pronounced in polar species. We examined the effects of lowered pH on larvae from tropical (Tripneustes gratilla), temperate (Pseudechinus huttoni, Evechinus chloroticus), and a polar species (Sterechinus neumayeri) in a series of laboratory experiments. Larvae were reared in a range of lower pH seawater (pH 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 7.7, 7.8 and ambient), adjusted by bubbling CO₂ gas. The effect of pH on somatic and skeletal growth, calcification index, development and survival were quantified, while SEM examination of the larval skeleton provided information on the effects of seawater pH on the fine-scale skeletal morphology. Lowering pH resulted in a decrease in survival in all species, but only below pH 7.0. The size of larvae were reduced at lowered pH, but the external morphology (shape) was unaffected. Calcification of the larval skeleton was significantly reduced (13.8–36.9% lower) under lowered pH, with the exception of the Antarctic species, which showed no significant difference. SEM examination revealed a degradation of the larval skeletons of Pseudechinus and Evechinus when grown in reduced pH. Sterechinus and Tripneustes showed no apparent difference in the skeletal fine structure under lowered pH. The study confirms the need to look beyond mortality as a single endpoint when considering the effects of ocean acidification that may occur through the 21st century, and instead, look for a suite of more subtle changes, which may indirectly affect the functioning of larval stages.     

发展一种估算石油工业温室气体排放的一致的方法

要获得有意义的温室气体清单,重要的是清单中包括的内容的方法论和定义应该是一致的.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPIECA)、国际石油和天然气生产者协会(OGP)以及美国石油学会(API)已经制定了温室气体排放计算和报告的准则.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPITCA)报告温室气体排放的石油工业指南的重点是放在石油工业温室气体排放的计算和报告上.为了提供排放估算一致的方法论,美国石油工业协会制定了石油和天然气工业温室气体排放估算方法论概要.从美国石油学会可以得到一个估算排放的工具--SANGEATM能源和排放估算系统.