2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

与全球气候变化紧密相关的能源消费问题是当今世界各国关注的热点,特别是中国能源消费规模、能源消费峰值和消费结构等更是关注的重点.论文在简要评述中国能源消费峰值、能源消费预测方法和模型的基础上,系统回顾了国内外对中国能源消费预测研究成果,侧重于人口和经济等驱动中国能源消费的两大主要因素,参考主要发达国家经济发展过程中人均能源消耗及人均累计能耗变化规律,对中国未来能源消费趋势进行了定量预测分析.结果表明:① 中国人均能耗、总量和人均累计消费量均有较大的发展潜力.2050年中国人均能耗大致在4.75~9.31 tce,上限也只相当于美国人均能耗峰值的76%;中国能源消费总量还将持续增长,2050 年的能源消费总量在61.91×10⁸~121.33×10⁸tce;1870-2050 年,中国人均累计能耗最佳分布区间为207~294 tce,只相当于1870-2012 年美国人均累计能耗的46%、德国的56%、英国的57%.② 文献梳理表明,当前预测中国能源消费峰值的各种研究成果大多认为在62×10⁸~79×10⁸tce,而峰值年份则出现在2035-2045 年,论文认为除美国、英国和德国情景将有峰值出现外,其他情景尚不可能出现峰值;③ 法国情景下中国能源消费“零”增长将于2040 年左右出现;日本、韩国以及基准情景预测显示,2035 年以后中国能源消费将进入到2%左右的低速增长期.上述研究结果表明,中国未来能源消费预测采用法国、日本、韩国情景较为合理,2035 年以后,中国能源消费将进入低速增长期.当前,中国人均收入不高,人均能耗尤其人均累计能耗处于较低水平,过早乐观承诺能源消费峰值,易使气候变化谈判陷入被动;从中国国情出发,需给中国社会经济发展留有能源消耗空间;促进能源资源的节约集约使用,积极倡导节能型生产生活方式,是中国社会经济可持续发展、保障能源安全、积极应对全球气候变化的现实需要.     

巢湖表层沉积物重金属生物有效性与生态风险评价

以巢湖表层沉积物为对象,对重金属(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Ni和Pb)总量及形态进行分析并运用潜在风险指数法和风险评价编码两种方法对巢湖表层沉积物重金属的生态风险进行了评价.结果表明,巢湖表层沉积物中的重金属含量表现为西部湖区高,东部湖区低的特征,其中南淝河入湖区重金属含量是全湖的1.09~1.21倍.BCR形态分析表明,巢湖表层沉积物中Cr、Ni和Cu以残渣态为主(分别占总量82.99%、63.63%和54.25%),Cd和Zn以弱酸提取态为主(分别占总量55.96%和35.84%),Pb以可还原态和可氧化态为主(分别占总量39.66%和24.56%).潜在生态风险危害指数(RI)表明,南淝河入湖河口区域具有较大生态风险(RI值范围为351.54~381.17).风险评价编码方法(RAC) 的结果显示,Cd处于极高风险水平,Zn基本处于高风险水平,Cu 和Ni处于中低风险,Pb处于低风险水平,Cr各采样点均处于无风险.因此, 对需着重考虑对南淝河入湖湖区的Cd和Zn元素的重点治理.     

催化湿式氧化复合催化剂对偶氮染料废水的降解

以C包覆海绵铁(SI-C)为载体,La、Mn、Ni的硝酸盐为前驱物,采用混合浸渍焙烧法制备了SI-C表层负载金属催化剂(Mn-Ni/C、Mn-La/C、Ni-La/C、Mn-Ni-La/C),以H2O2为氧化剂,研究常温常压下H2O2与催化剂协同作用处理偶氮染料模拟废水的效果,并对其制备条件和性能进行探讨.结果表明,负载型Mn-Ni-La/C在催化湿式过氧化氢氧化(CWPO)中降解效果最好,且0.02 mol·L-1的La、Mn、Ni硝酸盐金属浸渍液以体积比1:1:1均匀混合,300℃焙烧2 h条件下制得的催化剂效果最佳;通过海绵铁固定床外加高频交变磁场,实现一种新型热传递方式下的感应热非均相反应处理有机废水.以海绵铁为感应磁核,形成固-液界面高温微反应区,促进非均相催化反应的进行.实验结果显示直接蓝D-3GL的去除率达98.39%,对直接紫D-BL的去除率达97.56%,对直接大红D-GLN的去除率达92.18%.     

Effects of dissolved organic matter on the desorption of Cd in freeze–thaw treated Cd-contaminated soils

Lab-scale experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of dissolved organic matter (DOM) on the desorption of Cd in freeze–thaw treated Cd-contaminated soils. The results indicated that DOM significantly facilitated the desorption of Cd from freeze–thaw treated soils when comparing with that of non-frozen soils. Effects of DOM on the Cd desorption were highly dependent on the soil type and contamination concentration. The maximum desorption ratios of Cd by DOM generated from straw and sludge were 15.6% and 13.65%, respectively, in brown soils, and the maximum desorption ratios reached 14.7% and 9.3%, respectively, when using black soils through the same treatment. The higher the Cd contamination concentration in soils, the higher the ratio of Cd desorption by DOM. This was because of the integrated effects of the soil properties changed by the freeze–thaw treatment and the species transformation of Cd. The characteristics of DOM, such as its concentration and properties, had shown obvious impacts on the Cd desorption by DOM. The desorption was promoted with the increased DOM concentration and the hydrophilic fraction, and lowered pH and the low-molecular-weight of DOM.     

Construction of carbon nanotube-based microcapsules by self-assembly

Carbon nanotubes possess unique structures and outstanding properties. However, dispersion and manipulation of carbon nanotubes in solvents severely limit their application. A solution is building carbon nanotube-based microcapsules that combine both the properties of carbon nanotubes and capsules. Carbon nanotube-based microcapsules have indeed great potential applications including catalysts, adsorbents, and controlled-release materials. Here, we built carbon nanotube-based microcapsules by electrostatic self-assembly to develop novel composite materials. The construction and morphology of microcapsules were characterized by Raman spectroscopy, infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Pre-films composed of poly(sodium 4-styrenesulfonate) and poly(diallyldimethylammoinum chloride) were assembled onto calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) microparticles to construct positive solid templates. The carboxylated carbon nanotubes were then successfully assembled on the CaCO₃ template using a self-assembly technique. Ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA) was used as a powerful chelating agent to remove the CaCO₃ cores by chelation between EDTA and calcium, thus completing the construction of carbon nanotube-based hollow microcapsules. The spherical shapes of the microcapsules were well retained, and the carbon nanotubes were anchored evenly in the polyelectrolyte layers.     

MiRNA-451 is a potential biomarker for estrogenicity in mouse uterus

The uterotrophic assay has been commonly used to test environmental estrogens in vivo, however, it is often not sensitive enough sometimes. An alternative way is to evaluate estrogenicity through biomarker genes. MicroRNA （miRNA） is a class of regulatory gene, which has been shown to be a good biomarker for many diseases and toxicological effects in recent years, and some evidences showed that estrogen induced response was partially mediated by miRNAs. In this study, two types of microarrays were used to test the 17[3-estradiol （E2） induced miRNA expression profile at different time points in the immature mouse uterus. Statistical analysis showed the aldehyde slide based array had less variation than the amino slide based array, and 11 dysregulated miRNAs were screened out for significant fold change. Real-time PCR was performed to further confirm that 4 out of 7 selected miRNAs, namely miR-451, miR-155, miR-335- 5p, and miR-365, are E2 regulated miRNAs in the uterus. The function of the predicted targets of these miRNAs is involved in cell grow control, which is consistent with the main E2 function in the uterus. MiR-451 had similar strong responses to E2 in the uterus of both immature and overiectomized mice, and could be a potential biomarker for estrogenicity in the uterus.     

大气环境质量灰色聚类关联分析法的应用研究

在讨论大气环境质量灰色聚类关联评价法的基础上,通过应用实例和与灰色聚类法及灰色关联法的比较分析,验证了这种评价法的合理性和可靠性。     

聚合氯化铝铁在纺织印染废水处理中的应用

主要探讨聚合氯化铝铁（PAFC）在纺织印染废水处理的应用,并对影响絮凝效果的主要因素,如投加量、pH值等进行研究,找出最佳反应条件.     

基于径向基函数神经网络方法的城市生态压力预测

针对城市生态压力影响因素复杂,难以对城市未来可持续发展状况做出准确判断的问题,提出了城市生态压力的径向基函数神经网络预测模型,分析了影响城市生态系统的主要因素.以抚顺市1995-2009年数据为基础,验证了模型的准确性并预测了该市2010-2015年城市生态系统的压力情况.研究结果表明:能源消耗指标是影响城市生态系统压力的主要因素;运用径向基函数神经网络模型对训练样本的拟合精度以及对测试样本的仿真精度分别达97.91%和94.16%;抚顺市2015年的人均生态足迹、 生态承载力和生态赤字分别达到7.013、 0.523和6.49 hm²/人.     

Project tocoen. The fate of selected organic pollutants in the environment—iv. soil,earthworms and vegetation 1988

The samples of soils, earthworms and vegetation (needles, lichens, mosses) were collected for the realization of Project TOCOEN (Toxic Organic Compounds in the ENvironment). The samples were collected from three TOCOEN model areas in Czechoslovakia—one city and two rural areas. The samples were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), chlorinated pesticides (C1‐PEST) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).