Challenges to achieving a successful transition to a low carbon economy in South Africa: examples from poor urban communities

South Africa faces several development challenges including those linked to climate change. Energy usage in South Africa, for example, is already constrained because of a range of development challenges (the dependence on cheap coal as a heating source; energy availability; access; affordability of alternative energy sources; and a range of health impacts, including air pollution). Notwithstanding calls for a transition to a low carbon economy, there have been few, recent assessments in South Africa of the costs associated with such a transition, particularly the social and economic costs for the poor who use energy in a variety of ways. In this paper we focus on trying to unravel some of the complex energy-use behaviour including understanding what drives consumers in resource-poor areas to choose and use persistently risky energy options. Analysis of qualitative data in two township areas, Doornkop and Kwaguqa, shows that township households, whether electrified or not, continue to burn coal. In both study areas, an estimated 80% of electrified households burn coal for space heating and cooking and also make use of multiple fuel sources for a range of activities. Although the major obstacles preventing people from discontinuing domestic coal combustion are poverty, the ready availability and social acceptability of coal together with other social customs cannot be underrated. This paper therefore highlights some of the persistent challenges associated with sustainable energy transitions in South Africa including implications for improved mitigation and adaptation for the energy sector in wider climate change efforts.     

Aortic isthmus Doppler velocimetry: role in assessment of preterm fetal growth restriction

Intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR) is an important pregnancy complication associated with significant adverse clinical outcome, stillbirth, perinatal morbidity and cerebral palsy. To date, no uniformly accepted management protocol of Doppler surveillance that reduces mortality and cognitive morbidity has emerged. Aortic isthmus (AoI) evaluation has been proposed as a potential monitoring tool for IUGR fetuses. In this review, the current knowledge of the relationship between AoI Doppler velocimetry and preterm fetal growth restriction is reviewed. Relevant technical aspects and reproducibility data are reviewed as we discuss AoI Doppler and its place within the existing repertoire of Doppler assessments in placental insufficiency. The AoI is a link between the right and left ventricles which perfuse the lower and upper body, respectively. The clinical use of AoI waveforms for monitoring fetal deterioration in IUGR has been limited, but preliminary work suggests that abnormal AoI impedance indices are an intermediate step between placental insufficiency-hypoxemia and cardiac decompensation. Further prospective studies correlating AoI indices with arterial and venous Doppler indices and perinatal outcome are required before encorporating this index into clinical practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Copper marketing with forward and futures contracts: state-owned and private Chilean firms during the 1990s

The use of futures in copper marketing became common during the 1990s, but little attention has been put on the reasons for it and its relationship with other elements of marketing such as forward sales and premiums. This study focuses on these issues and the benefit of futures relative to annual forward contracts. It argues futures complement annual forward contracts to secure the average market price rather than to maximize revenue. The paper analyzes empirical evidence for the six largest Chilean copper producers. This sample reflects well the entire Chilean industry during the 1990s. The analysis shows that forward sales became more volatile and futures seem to be the instrument to avoid income fluctuation at the end of the marketing process. However, the benefits of futures compared to forward sales are very modest. In the last section we suggest a better marketing instrument to maximize revenue may be premiums.     

低温下丝状菌膨胀污泥的微生物多样性

为探究低温下丝状菌污泥膨胀过程中微生物多样性的变化特征,实验采用低温-SBR反应器成功诱发污泥膨胀,并借助Illumina MiSeq高通量测序技术,考察了不同沉降性能下活性污泥微生物群落的整体变化特征、各特定菌群及特定菌属的变化特征.结果表明,在系统运行温度降至(14±1)℃后可成功诱发丝状菌污泥膨胀,SVI可恶化至663.99 mL·g~(-1),且膨胀后COD去除率和TN去除率仍能维持在90%和86%左右.低温下污泥膨胀的发生不仅会导致系统内微生物整体多样性和均一性的降低,使特定菌群中丝状菌群的丰度由0.49%增至26.04%,还会使脱氮菌群的丰度由21.04%减少至13.99%、除磷菌群的丰度由4.25%减少至1.93%.发现的5种丝状菌属中,以Thiothrix为代表的3种菌属的丰度递增,仅Haliscomenobacter的丰度递减;发现的19种脱氮菌属中,以Nitrosomonas为代表的5种菌属的丰度递增,以Nitrospira为代表的7种菌属的丰度递减;发现的8种除磷菌属中,Pseudomonas和Tetrasphaera的丰度递增,以Candidatus_Competibacter为代表的5种菌属的丰度递减.虽然污泥膨胀对微生物菌群结构产生较大影响,但不同泥样中始终存在的477个OTUs和227个菌属说明膨胀过程中反应器内主体微生物仍呈相对稳定状态.     

Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations

We explored the effect of varying pseudo-absence data in species distribution modelling using empirical data for four real species and simulated data for two imaginary species. In all analyses we used a fixed study area, a fixed set of environmental predictors and a fixed set of presence observations. Next, we added pseudo-absence data generated by different sampling designs and in different numbers to assess their relative importance for the output from the species distribution model. The sampling design strongly influenced the predictive performance of the models while the number of pseudo-absences had minimal effect on the predictive performance. We attribute much of these results to the relationship between the environmental range of the pseudo-absences (i.e. the extent of the environmental space being considered) and the environmental range of the presence observations (i.e. under which environmental conditions the species occurs). The number of generated pseudo-absences had a direct effect on the predicted probability, which translated to different distribution areas. Pseudo-absence observations that fell within grid cells with presence observations were purposely included in our analyses. We discourage the practice of excluding certain pseudo-absence data because it involves arbitrary assumptions about what are (un)suitable environments for the species being modelled.     

Use of Market Data to Assess Bushmeat Hunting Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Abstract: Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less‐accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market‐based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Translocation Options for a Threatened Waterbird

Abstract: Reintroduction of captive‐reared animals has become increasingly popular in recent decades as a conservation technique, but little is known of how demographic factors affect the success of reintroductions. We believe whether the increase in population persistence associated with reintroduction is sufficient to warrant the cost of rearing and relocating individuals should be considered as well. We examined the trade‐off between population persistence and financial cost of a reintroduction program for Crested Coots (Fulica cristata). This species was nearly extirpated from southern Europe due to unsustainable levels of hunting and reduction in amount and quality of habitat. We used a stochastic, stage‐based, single‐sex, metapopulation model with site‐specific parameters to examine the demographic effects of releasing juveniles or adults in each population for a range of durations. We parameterized the model with data from an unsuccessful reintroduction program in which juvenile captive‐bred Crested Coots were released between 2000 and 2009. Using economic data from the captive‐breeding program, we also determined whether the strategy that maximized abundance coincided with the least expensive strategy. Releasing adults resulted in slightly larger final abundance than the release of nonreproductive juveniles. Both strategies were equally poor in achieving a viable metapopulation, but releasing adults was 2–4 times more expensive than releasing juveniles. To obtain a metapopulation that would be viable for 30 years, fecundity in the wild would need to increase to the values observed in captivity and juvenile survival would need to increase to almost unity. We suggest that the most likely way to increase these vital rates is by increasing habitat quality at release sites.     

The importance of monitoring and evaluation in adaptive maritime spatial planning

Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional indicators need to be developed and monitored.     

Spore inhibition-based enzyme substrate assay for monitoring of aflatoxin M1 in milk

A spore germination-based concept and its transformation into a field level prototype for monitoring aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in milk was developed. Initially, 15 strains of Bacillus spp. procured from different culture collection were screened for AFM₁ sensitivity using spot assay and marker strain showing inhibition at 0.5 ppb was selected based upon maximum zone of inhibition. The selected strain B. megaterium 2949 was further screened for different enzymes activities and subsequently its spores were produced to an extent of 73.13% ± 3.197% in newly developed sporulation medium containing beef extract (0.0075% ± 0.0004%), yeast extract (0.015% ± 0.001%), peptone (0.0375% ± 0.0016%), and sodium chloride (0.0375% ± 0.0018%). A spore germination-based concept/ assay was optimized by immobilizing spores in eppendorf with pretreated milk (80°C/15 min) containing germinant and chromogenic substrate followed by incubation at 37°C. The appearance of sky blue color within real time of 45 min indicated spores germination and release of specific marker enzyme such as acetyl esterase and its specific action on chromogenic substrate which demonstrates absence of AFM₁ in milk. However, if there was no color change, presence of AFM₁ at 0.5 ppb MRL was denoted by Codex. The developed concept on AFM₁ detection was validated and a correlation of 0.97 was established with AOAC approved Charm 6602 and ELISA at Codex MRL with minimal false positive and negative results. The cost effective test has potential application in dairy farms, manufacturing, and R&D units for routine monitoring of AFM₁ in milk.