Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Modeling and interpretation of fiber orientation-based failure mechanisms in machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites

The development and implementation of a microstructure-based finite element model for the machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites is presented. A new approach to interfacial modeling is introduced where the material interface is modeled using continuum elements, allowing failure to take place in either tension or compression. The model is capable of describing the fiber failure mode occurring throughout the chip formation process. Characteristic fiber length in the chips, and machining forces for microstructures with fibers orientated at 0°, 45°, 90°, and 135° are examined. For model validation purposes, the model-based machining performance predictions are compared to the machining responses from a set of orthogonal machining experiments. A parametric study is presented that identifies a robust tool geometry, which minimizes the effects of fiber orientation and size on the machining forces.     

Artiodactyls from the Pondaung Formation (Myanmar): new data and reevaluation of the South Asian Faunal Province during the Middle Eocene

Although Asia is thought to have played a critical role in the radiation of artiodactyls, the fossil record of stem selenodonts (“dichobunoids”) remains dramatically poor in tropical Asian regions. In this study, we report a new dichobunid genus and species Cadutherium kyaukmagyii and a new basal ruminant genus and species Irrawadymeryx pondaungi, from the late Middle Eocene Pondaung Formation, Central Myanmar. Although the scarcity of the present material prevents any attempts to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Cadutherium with contemporaneous forms from other Holarctic landmasses, this new form shed new light on the diversity of these small rabbit-like ungulates during a key period of their evolutionary history. Reexamination of the small-bodied artiodactyls from Pondaung leads us to propose new identifications of certain published specimens and, in turn, to investigate the temporal and geographic distribution of taxa recognized in the Pondaung Formation. Although fragmentary, these potential new taxa reveal an unsuspected diversity of small forms among artiodactyls of Pondaung. This addition to the Eocene record of dichobunoids and early ruminants provides further insight in the diversity of dental patterns among small artiodactyls from the Pondaung Formation and attests to the antiquity of these groups in Southeast Asia.     

Sperm bundle and reproductive organs of carabid beetles tribe Pterostichini (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

The morphological characteristics of sperm and reproductive organs may offer clues as to how reproductive systems have evolved. In this paper, the morphologies of the sperm and male reproductive organs of carabid beetles in the tribe Pterostichini (Coleoptera: Carabidae) are described, and the morphological associations among characters are examined. All species form sperm bundles in which the head of the sperm was embedded in a rod-shaped structure, i.e., spermatodesm. The spermatodesm shape (left-handed spiral, right-handed spiral, or without conspicuous spiral structure) and the condition of the sperm on the spermatodesm surface (with the tail free-moving or forming a thin, sheetlike structure) vary among species. In all species, the spiral directions of the convoluted seminal vesicles and vasa deferentia are the same on both sides of the body; that is, they show an asymmetric structure. The species in which the sperm bundle and the seminal vesicles both have a spiral structure could be classified into two types, with significant differences in sperm-bundle length between the two types. The species with a sperm-bundle spiral and seminal-vesicle spiral of almost the same diameter have longer sperm bundles than the species with a sperm-bundle spiral and seminal-vesicle tube of almost the same diameter. In the former type, the spiral directions of the sperm bundles and seminal vesicles are inevitably the same, whereas they differ in some species with the later type. Therefore, increased sperm bundle length appears to have been facilitated by the concordance of the sperm bundle’s coiling direction with the coiling direction of the seminal vesicle.     

Soil and preen waxes influence the expression of carotenoid-based plumage coloration

The signaling function of carotenoid-based plumage is mainly determined by the concentration of pigments in feathers. For this reason, most studies of the proximate control of coloration focus on processes during and preceding moult. In great tits Parus major, past research demonstrates that carotenoid-based plumage coloration honestly indicates male quality and, thus, may be a sexually selected signal. In this study, we investigate how dirt and preen oil influence the coloration of carotenoid-based feathers in the great tit. We collected six feathers from each individual bird; three feathers served as controls while the remaining three feathers were washed with a chloroform/methanol mixture to remove soil and preen waxes. We assessed plumage coloration using digital photography. This cleaning procedure slightly enhanced ornamentation; the experimentally cleaned feathers expressed hues shifted towards shorter wavelengths and expressed brighter overall coloration than control feathers. This is the first experimental study conducted on wild birds demonstrating that, in addition to pigment concentration, the presence of preen waxes and soils on feathers may contribute to variation in coloration.     

Daytime light intensity affects seasonal timing via changes in the nocturnal melatonin levels

Daytime light intensity can affect the photoperiodic regulation of the reproductive cycle in birds. The actual way by which light intensity information is transduced is, however, unknown. We postulate that transduction of the light intensity information is mediated by changes in the pattern of melatonin secretion. This study, therefore, investigated the effects of high and low daytime light intensities on the daily melatonin rhythm of Afro-tropical stonechats (Saxicola torquata axillaris) in which seasonal changes in daytime light intensity act as a zeitgeber of the circannual rhythms controlling annual reproduction and molt. Stonechats were subjected to light conditions simulated as closely as possible to native conditions near the equator. Photoperiod was held constant at 12.25 h of light and 11.75 h of darkness per day. At intervals of 2.5 to 3.5 weeks, daytime light intensity was changed from bright (12,000 lux at one and 2,000 lux at the other perch) to dim (1,600 lux at one and 250 lux at the other perch) and back to the original bright light. Daily plasma melatonin profiles showed that they were linked with changes in daytime light intensity: Nighttime peak and total nocturnal levels were altered when transitions between light conditions were made, and these changes were significant when light intensity was changed from dim to bright. We suggest that daytime light intensity could affect seasonal timing via changes in melatonin profiles. Professor Dr. E. Gwinner died on 07 September 2004.     

Study of vehicle speeds on a major highway in Ghana: implication for monitoring and control

OBJECTIVE: Vehicular speeds have been identified to be at the core of road accident severity and frequency globally. Whereas speed control is a fundamental priority and the cornerstone of road safety in the developed world, the subject is at rudimentary stages in most developing countries thus making research into vehicle speeds in developing nations imperative. The main aim of the study was to establish two major speed parameters, namely the mean speed and dispersion, and their implications for more extensive and long-term speed monitoring in Ghana. METHODS: Research workers stationed themselves in a parked car and used a radar gun to unobtrusively measure the travelling speeds of 4,163 vehicles over two 24-hour periods at two separate sites on one of the main inter-urban roads (Accra-Kumasi). Both sites were settled areas with posted speed limits of 50 km/hr. RESULTS: Over 95% of vehicles travelled above the posted speed limit of 50 km/hr. Vehicles on an average travelled at 87 km/hr, (95% CI=87, 88). Variation in speeds was wide, with a standard deviation of 18 km/hr for all classes of vehicles, and with a range of 40 to 187 km/hr. The highest vehicular speed was associated with the private car (97.6+/-18.3 km/hr) followed by large buses (93.6+/-13.3 km/hr) and the least was with heavy trucks (73.8+/-12.9 km/hr). CONCLUSION: The excessive vehicular speeds coupled with the wide speed variations explain in part the high incidence of traffic crashes and fatalities on the Accra-Kumasi highway. An integrated speed monitoring and control program, and realigning the highway to by-pass small and medium settlements would be required as a long-term measure for the reduction of speed-related road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries in Ghana.     

Establishment of facultative sexuals

The existence of sex is one of the major unsolved problems in biology. We use computer simulations to model conditions in which sex may first become established. We develop an individual-based population model and show that a hypothetical facultative sex gene can fix, provided that the initial cost is low. It is demonstrated that the equilibrium fitness in the population increases with increasing population size and decreasing mutation rate. The probability of the establishment of the sex gene is found not to be directly related to the fitness difference between the asexual and sexual populations. This change in fitness on changing the parameters of the model is investigated.     

The impact of agroforestry combined with water harvesting on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in central Chile evaluated using the ICBM/N model

Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N) stocks in an agroforestry system with water harvesting were analysed in a field experiment and the results compared with those of other crop management systems in the Mediterranean zone of central Chile. Agroforestry with water harvesting showed higher positive effects on N stocks, mainly in the upper soil layer, than the other crop management systems. However, soil analysis revealed a lack of differences between treatments, a fact that might be related mainly to the short study time (12 years) and the high spatial variability in these soil properties at the experimental site. In addition, the Introductory Carbon Balance Model that simulates N processes (ICBM/N) was evaluated for simulating trends in SOC and N stocks in the field experiment. Soil data collected between 1996 and 2008 in the field experiment and primarily literature data sets were used to test ICBM/N and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainty in model inputs using Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The GLUE estimates (5% and 95%) and measured SOC and N stocks were in satisfactory agreement. The observed SOC and N stocks were bracketed by the uncertainty bands in 70% and 80% of the simulations, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed the model to be most sensitive to C parameters, such as the humification coefficient (h). The results of this study show that ICBM/N can be an effective tool for estimating SOC and N stocks from agroforestry combined with water harvesting systems in the Mediterranean zone of central Chile over the medium term. However, they also indicate that additional data sets are needed to redefine the parameter distributions in the model and thus to predict trends in SOC and N stocks in the future.