NATIONWIDE REGRESSION MODELS FOR PREDICTING URBAN RUNOFF WATER QUALITY AT UNMONITORED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Regression models are presented that can be used to estimate mean loads for chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, dissolved solids, total nitrogen, total ammonia plus nitrogen, total phosphorous, dissolved phosphorous, total copper, total lead, and total zinc at unmonitored sites in urban areas. Explanatory variables include drainage area, imperviousness of drainage basin to infiltration, mean annual rainfall, a land-use indicator variable, and mean minimum January temperature. Model parameters are estimated by a generalized-least-squares regression method that accounts for cross correlation and differences in reliability of sample estimates between sites. The regression models account for 20 to 65 percent of the total variation in observed loads.     

The Development and Implementation of Indicators of Ecosystem Health in the Great Lakes Basin

This paper describes a process for the selection of a suite of ecosystem health indicators for the Great Lakes, as called for in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The paper also presents some preliminary data on status and trends in ecosystem components based on those indicators. The indicator selection process was carried out by over 150 scientists and managers from both Canada and the USA, and involved the presentation of the proposed indicators at the State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conferences (SOLECs). An open period for comment followed the conferences where input from scientists involved in Great Lakes programs was received. The suite of indicators will, over time, present information in an understandable format that will allow for more informed management decisions.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

CREATING MEANINGFUL STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN WATERSHED PLANNING IN PIERCE COUNTY,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: Since 1989, the government of Pierce County, Washington, has prepared four watershed action plans. The watersheds cover almost 800,000 acres and include about 600,000 residents and diverse land uses, from the city of Tacoma to Mount Rainier National Park. The primary purpose of these plans was to address water quality impacts from nonpoint sources of pollution and to protect beneficial uses of water. Pierce County has experienced problems such as shellfish bed closures and the Federal Clean Water Act Section 303(d) listing of local water bodies as a result of declining water quality. Pierce County achieved improvements by engaging diverse groups of stakeholders in generating solutions to nonpoint sources of water pollution through our watershed planning process. Using participatory methods borrowed from private industry, Pierce County was able to reach consensus, build trust, maximize participation, facilitate learning, encourage creativity, develop partnerships, shorten time frames for the planning processes, and increase the level of commitment participants had to implementing the plans. As a result, the earliest plans have a high rate of voluntary implementation. This indicates that the process and methodology used to develop watershed plans has a significant, if not critical, impact on their success.     

The Nexus Between CO2 Emissions and Genetically Modified Crops: a Perspective from Order Theory

Genetically modified crops (GMCs) and climate change have been two ecological issues intensely debated over the years. The search for global solutions to the effects of climate change on agriculture has led to the proposal of GMCs as a tool to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural practices and to improve their efficiency of production. At least 27 countries, all over the world, have cultivated GMCs. The purpose of the present paper is to provide insights about the possible linkages between the cultivated areas and the CO₂ emissions in these countries. In addition, the study intends to establish meaningful relationships between attributes related to the particular socio-economic situations and the environmental impacts of GMCs. Some examples are the connection between acreages of GMCs and the status of each country with respect to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, as well as their classification according to the mean income per capita and their CO₂ emissions. In order to give the mathematical support to these links, the methodology known as Order Theory was employed. The results show that Paraguay, India, Burkina Faso, Brazil and Pakistan could be the best contributors to the mitigation of the climate change by the reduction of their CO₂ emission levels through GMCs.

     

Wind modeling of Chihuahuan Desert dust outbreaks

The Chihuahuan Desert region of North America is a significant source of mineral aerosols in the Western Hemisphere, and Chihuahuan Desert dust storms frequently impact the Paso del Norte (El Paso, USA/Ciudad Juarez, Mexico) metropolitan area. A statistical analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectory residence times evaluated airflow into El Paso on all days and on days with synoptic (non-convective) dust events in 2001–2005. The incremental probability—a measure of the areas most likely to have been traversed by air masses arriving at El Paso during dusty days—was only strongly positively associated with the region west–southwest of the city, a zone of known dust source areas. Focused case studies were made of major dust events on 15 April and 15 December 2003. Trajectories approached the surface and MM5 (NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model) wind speeds increased at locations consistent with dust sources observed in satellite imagery on those dates. Back trajectory and model analyses suggested that surface cyclones adjacent to the Chihuahuan Desert were associated with the extreme dust events, consistent with previous studies of dust storms in the Southern High Plains to the northeast. The recognition of these meteorological patterns serves as a forecast aid for prediction of dust events likely to impact the Paso del Norte.     

North–South Investment Flows and Optimal Environmental Policies

In the context of a simple North–South model that focuses on the international movement of capital, we show how neglect of pollution-generating effects of foreign investment may lead to distorted and misleading policy recommendations. Such a neglect has recently received emphasis in the empirical literature on East Asian economies, as in Bello and Rosenfeld (1990, “Dragons in Distress: Asia's Miracle Economics in Crisis,” Food First, San Francisco), and was shown to overlook resulting tendencies in these economies toward specialization, away from agriculture and toward manufacturing. Our simple model formalizes this observation and allows us to show that even for an unspecialized capital-poor, resource-rich South, such pollution-generating effects provide incentives for the North to encourage, rather than to discourage, foreign investment abroad and strengthen Southern incentives to restrict foreign investment more sharply than is conventionally assumed. In a nutshell, it brings out the implications of Northern capital “creating its own demand” as a consequence of its adverse impact on the Southern resource base. Despite its simplicity, the model thus sheds light on three interrelated aspects of international trading relations: production asymmetry, incomplete markets, and monopolistic advantage.     

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing uptake. However, experimental evidence is inconclusive. Numerous results suggest that pollutants and factors subject to global change (drought, CO(2)) may interact and even exacerbate effects, probably because antioxidative defense systems are involved in both, defense against pollutant effects and protection from natural stress. An effective pollutant dose, which is weighted by physiological defense capacity, would better predict such effects. In this review paper we argue that the flux-based approach is imperfect, because global change effects may also modify the physiological susceptibility to ozone. Instead, a flux concept weighted by defense capacity should be tested.     

A Multilevel Modeling Approach to Assessing Regional and Local Landscape Features for Lake Classification and Assessment of Fish Growth Rates

The ecoregion and watershed frameworks are landscape-based classifications that have been used to group waterbodies with respect to measures of community structure; however, they have yet to be evaluated for grouping lakes for demographic characteristics of fish populations. We used a multilevel modeling approach to determine if variability in mean fish length at age could be partitioned by ecoregions and watersheds. For the ecoregions analysis, we then examined if within-ecoregion variability could be explained by local water quality and lake morphometry characteristics. We used data from agency surveys conducted during 1974-1984 for age 2 and 3 fish of seven common warm and coolwater fish species. Variance in mean length at age between ecoregions for all species was not significant, and between-watershed variance estimates were only significant in 3 out of 14 analyses; however, the total amount of variation between watersheds was very small (ranging from 1.8% to 3.7% of the total variance), indicating that ecoregions and watersheds were ineffective in partitioning variability in mean length at age. Within ecoregions, water quality and lake morphometric characteristics accounted for 2%-23% of the variation in mean length at age. Measures of lake productivity were the most common significant covariates, with mean length at age increasing with increasing lake productivity. Much of the variability in mean length at age was not accounted for, suggesting that other local factors such as biotic interactions, fish density, and exploitation are important. The results indicate that the development of an effective regional framework for managing inland lakes will require a substantial effort to understand sources of demographic variability and that managers should not rely solely on ecoregions or watersheds for grouping lakes with similar growth rates.     

An evaluation pattern for antimacrofouling procedures: Limnoperna fortunei larvae study in a hydroelectric power plant in South America

The effects of global change and globalization of trade on the biosphere spur an increase in bioinvasions and their subsequent impact on ecosystems. Continental invading bivalves are important because of their impact on artificially-constructed structures. Limnoperna fortunei was first found in the Neotropical region in 1991. Since then it has dispersed upstream in the Plata and Guaíba basins at a rate of 240 km y(-1). This species causes macrofouling in a manner similar to that caused by Dreissena polymorpha. This paper describes the biology of L. fortunei larvae from a hydroelectric power plant in South America. We suggest the importance of knowing the biology of the invading species and the need to consider the settlement patterns and densities of larvae in each of the sectors of the facility in order to achieve a sustainable prevention/control of macrofouling. This study acquires a global significance under the assumption that L. fortunei will eventually invade North America and Europe.