Modelling count data based on weakly dependent spatial covariates using a copula approach: application to rat sightings

Not all environmental processes are observed in a way that allows a straight forward easy modelling. Nevertheless, insights can also be gained by exploring weakly dependent covariates paying attention to details of the distribution. Using the concept of copulas, it is possible to explore the dependence of a multivariate distribution without the distortion of the marginal distribution functions acting on typical correlation measures. Furthermore, copulas turn the attention to the dependence across the entire range of the multivariate distribution and do not only summarise it in a single correlation measure. In our application, we study counts of rat sightings in the city of Madrid. The brown rat lives with mankind and adversely affects public health by transmission of diseases, bites and allergies. Better understanding behavioural and spatial correlation aspects of this species can contribute to its effective management and control. We explore weakly to moderately correlated covariates based on distances to broken sewers, feeding grounds and markets as well as population density. The use of copulas is motivated by the different dependence structures of the four covariates and the asymmetries therein. In order to deal with the discrete zero-inflated counts, we present a new approach that assigns conditional random ranks to discrete data. This way, we mimic an underlying continuous variable easing the vine copula estimation, but do not destroy the dependence as in a uniform randomisation. We show that a 5-dimensional vine copula model is able to capture the dependence in our application.     

Of parks and politics: the production of socio-nature in a Gujarati town

Urban parks in India are often discussed as positive environmental projects, and their creation appears as unproblematic in public discourse. This paper presents the creation of a municipal park in a small city in Gujarat, India. Using insights from history and architecture, we stress the importance of reading parks as political and to some extent ideological projects in the larger context of city-making. The political ecology and history of the particular park studied here allow us to problematise the socio-ecological project of urban “beautification” via park creation. The municipal park, established in the centre of a small urban agglomeration after displacing a slum settlement from the site, is – as we argue – an integral part of a local geography of power. As such it expresses several registers of values upheld by local elites and brings into focus highly conflictive social relations. The case study contributes to further developing a situated urban political ecological approach that starts theorising cities from the South. It moreover offers a critical perspective on the understudied urban nature of small towns.     

Is biochar or straw-bale construction a better carbon storage from a life cycle perspective?

Biochar has been presented as a key technology for avoiding dangerous climate change. Pyrolysis converts part of the biomass feedstock into a gaseous fraction, which can be used for energy production. The remaining fraction is char, which is highly stable and resistant to biodegradation. When char is added to soil it increases carbon storage, reduces emissions and improves soil quality. Agricultural residues such as straw, stover and hulls are seen as the most accessible raw material. These residues could also be used as insulation in passive energy housing. Straw bale construction is a relatively simple technology, which has been applied for decades. It can store the carbon of the straw material into walls structures and in the process provides energy efficient housing. The climate benefits from improved energy efficiency depend on local conditions and energy production forms. In this study life cycle assessment was used to compare the climate impacts of biochar production and straw bale construction. On a life cycle perspective, straw bale construction results in higher net carbon storage than biochar production (3.3 t CO₂eq vs. 0.9 t CO₂eq/t of straw). However the result was found to be highly dependent on the assumptions on the overall energy efficiency of the replaced building stock.     

Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

Serological screening for cytomegalovirus during pregnancy: A systematic review of clinical practice guidelines and consensus statements

Background

Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is the most common congenital infection worldwide. cCMV can lead to severe long-term sequelae, including neurological impairment and developmental delay. We performed a systematic review of clinical practice guidelines containing recommendations concerning serological screening for CMV during pregnancy.

Method

We performed a search of MEDLINE, Turning Research into Practice (TRIP) database and the grey literature for clinical practice guidelines or consensus statements published in the English language from Jan 2010 to June 2022. The quality of the included guidelines was assessed using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument. Textual synthesis was used to summarise and compare the recommendations on CMV serological screening in pregnancy.

Results

Eleven guidelines and two consensus statements were included. None recommended universal serological screening for CMV in pregnant women; five recommended screening for high-risk women (those with frequent contact with young children). The overall quality of the guidelines varied; most were medium or low.

Conclusions

Although clinical practice guidelines do not actively recommend routine serological screening in pregnancy, most did not meet standard processes for development and predated the emerging data on valaciclovir as a potential intervention. Existing recommendations are underpinned by limited, low-level evidence, exposing the lack of robust data in this area of practice. Further high-level evidence and methodologically robust guidelines are needed to guide clinical practice in this rapidly changing field.     

Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region

Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the “Landschaft Davos”, an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.     

Male mate choice favors more colorful females in the gift-giving cabbage butterfly

While the phenomenon of male mate choice has attracted considerable attention in the last two decades, whether this sexual selection mechanism could drive the evolution of female ornaments remains poorly understood. Here, we used experimental manipulation of female wing coloration to investigate male mate choice in Pieris rapae, a gift-giving butterfly. Further, we tested whether males’ nutritional status influenced their mating preferences by subjecting larvae to short periods of starvation. We found that males showed significantly more mating approaches toward control females with more colorful wings (higher pteridine content), and that this preference was strongest in low-nutrition males. Additionally, a study of field-collected females revealed that pteridine-based wing coloration was positively correlated with female egg load, which suggests such ornaments may signal female quality. Pteridine-based ornaments are widespread in nature, however their potential as honest signals in male mate choice remains largely unexplored. This work furthers our understanding of how male mate choice and female ornamentation may evolve in species whose mating systems include nutritional nuptial gifts.