A multispecies test of source–sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source–sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site‐ or habitat‐specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source–sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high‐output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source–sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data‐rich source–sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short‐term regional persistence. Because source–sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.     

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.     

COLUMBIA RIVER FLOW AND DROUGHT SINCE 17501

ABSTRACT: A network of 32 drought sensitive tree‐ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree‐ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.     

AN APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING IN PLANNING SURFACE WATER STORAGE1

Designing a surface reservoir involves the concept of reservoir yield. This concept embodies three basic information items: hydrologic regime, active storage volume, and reservoir release policy. In the actual case presented below, the magnitude of the active storage was prescribed by a legal procedure, so that the planning issue became that of determining the reservoir yield given the hydrological information. A stochastic dynamic programming model was formulated to derive a schedule of seasonal optimal reservoir releases and their respective probabilities of occurrence. This schedule is the reservoir yield. The yearly cycle was divided into three seasons representing the actual climatic conditions, and conditional probabilities linking streamflows in consecutive seasons were estimated. An operating policy was postulated, based on the same set of legal decisions that prescribed the active storage volume, and target reservoir releases were assumed. Similarly, target storages at the end of each season were set up. The optimizing/ minimizing criterion in the dynamic programming formulation was the sum of squares of deviations of actual releases and final storage volumes from their respective targets.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

Modeling joint production of wildlife and timber

Production of marketed commodities and protection of natural systems often conflict. A focus on only one goal can result in large losses in other goals and may result in inefficient and unsustainable outcomes. In this paper, we develop a method that combines economic and ecological models in a dynamic and spatial analysis to evaluate land use decisions and find cost-effective alternatives for which it is not possible to do better on one objective without harming another objective. The method is demonstrated using timber production and species conservation on a forested landscape over a 100-year planning horizon. Current land use strategies are simulated and compared with cost-effective alternatives. The approach is compared to a static reserve approach, similar to previous studies, and found to produce substantially more efficient management strategies for the case study landscape.     

Is there a need to re-examine the approval of bismuth shotshell as a non-toxic alternative to lead based on the precautionary principle?

In 1997, the Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) approved bismuth shotshell as an alternative to lead. We assessed whether there is a need to re-examine the toxicity of bismuth issue using the initial CWS toxicity guideline criteria. Review of the literature suggests that in the context of the precautionary principle, a re-examination of the approval of bismuth shotshell should be undertaken based on animal health issues, associated deficiencies in the analytical data used in the original assessment, and to a lesser extent, human health concerns.     

Expert System for Terrestrial Vegetation Distribution, Potential Impact and Mitigation Abatement Measures

The tropical rainforest of Malaysia holds one of the richest flora in the world. The favourable climate has produced flora of amazing richness and variety. Terrestrial vegetation of tropical rainforests is an important feature of the environment. Plants play a major role in the environment and conservation of a particular environment depends fundamentally on the maintenance of existing plants and their communities and hierarchies. Interference in the balance of the ecosystem may produce radical changes that lead to progressive deviations from the original situation. Therefore, the application of a computer technology in the form of an expert system (ES) will be able to help in the analysis and management of the EIA information. The ES is named VEGEVIC. Application of the system will lead to greater consistency in the application of EIA through implementation of a standard approach.     

Pteris vittata – Revisited: Uptake of As and its speciation, impact of P, role of phytochelatins and S

Pteris vittata is known to hyperaccumulate As but the mechanism is poorly understood. We found an increase of As concentration with increasing soil solution As concentrations, but P application had no impact, although plant P concentrations responded to different rates of P supply. As in fronds was dominantly (82–89%) present in the form of AsIII. In roots we detected 45% as AsIII which is higher than reported in previous studies and supports substantial As-reduction to take place in roots. We detected PC2/3GS–AsIII, PC2–GS–AsIII and (PC2)2–AsIII in increasing amounts with application of As. The total amount of PC was in the range reported previously and far too small to assign a significant role in As detoxification to PCs. The close correlation between S and As in fronds and the lack of data on sulphur uptake and metabolism indicates the need for a detailed investigation on sulphur nutritional status and As metabolism in P. vittata.