COVID-19: From health crises to food security anxiety and policy implications

Like the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent’s governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.     

Minimizing Bias in Virally Seeded Water Treatment Studies: Evaluation of Optimal Bacteriophage and Mammalian Virus Preparation Methodologies

One key assumption impacting data quality in viral inactivation studies is that reduction estimates are not altered by the virus seeding process. However, seeding viruses often involves the inadvertent addition of co-constituents such as cell culture components or additives used during preparation steps which can impact viral reduction estimates by inducing non-representative oxidant demand in disinfection studies and fouling in membrane assessments. The objective of this study was therefore to characterize a mammalian norovirus surrogate, murine norovirus (MNV), and bacteriophage MS2 at sequential stages of viral purification and to quantify their potential contribution to artificial oxidant demand and non-representative membrane fouling. Our results demonstrate that seeding solvent extracted and 0.1 micron filtered MNV to ~10⁵ PFU/mL in an experimental water matrix will result in additional total organic carbon (TOC) and 30 min chlorine demand of 39.2 mg/L and 53.5 mg/L as Cl₂, respectively. Performing sucrose cushion purification on the MNV stock prior to seeding reduces the impacts of TOC and chlorine demand to 1.6 and 0.15 mg/L as Cl₂, respectively. The findings for MNV are likely relevant for other mammalian viruses propagated in serum-based media. Thus, advanced purification of mammalian virus stocks by sucrose cushion purification (or equivalent density-based separation approach) is warranted prior to seeding in water treatment assessments. Studies employing bacteriophage MS2 as a surrogate virus may not need virus purification, since seeding MS2 at a concentration of ~10⁶ PFU/mL will introduce only ~1 mg/L of TOC and ~1 mg/L as Cl₂ of chlorine demand to experimental water matrices.     

A Strategy for Prioritizing Threats and Recovery Actions for At-Risk Species

Ensuring the persistence of at-risk species depends on implementing conservation actions that ameliorate threats. We developed and implemented a method to quantify the relative importance of threats and to prioritize recovery actions based on their potential to affect risk to Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We used assessments of threat importance and elasticities of demographic rates from population matrix models to estimate the relative contributions of threats to overall increase in risk to the population. We found that urbanization, human access, military operations, disease, and illegal use of off highway vehicles are the most serious threats to the desert tortoise range-wide. These results suggest that, overall, recovery actions that decrease habitat loss, predation, and crushing will be most effective for recovery; specifically, we found that habitat restoration, topic-specific environmental education, and land acquisition are most likely to result in the greatest decrease in risk to the desert tortoise across its range. In addition, we have developed an application that manages the conceptual model and all supporting information and calculates threat severity and potential effectiveness of recovery actions. Our analytical approach provides an objective process for quantifying threats, prioritizing recovery actions, and developing monitoring metrics for those actions for adaptive management of any at-risk species.     

A picture of change: using photovoice to explore social and environmental change in coastal communities on the Andaman Coast of Thailand

Coastal communities experience a wide array of environmental and social changes to which they must constantly adapt. Further, a community's perception of change and risk has significant implications for a community's willingness and ability to adapt to both current and future changes. As part of a larger study focusing on the adaptive capacity of communities on the Andaman Coast of Thailand, we used Photovoice to open a dialogue with communities about changes in the marine environment and in coastal communities. This article presents the results of two exploratory Photovoice processes and discusses prospects for using the Photovoice method for exploring social and environmental change. Changes examined included a number of broader environmental and social trends as well as ecological specifics and social particularities in each site. Participants also explored the social implications of environmental changes, the impacts of macro-scale processes on local outcomes, and emotive and active responses of individuals and communities to change. Photovoice is deemed a powerful method for: examining social, environmental, and socio-ecological change, triangulating to confirm the results of other scientific methods, revealing novel ecological interactions, and providing input into community processes focusing on natural resource management, community development, and climate change adaptation.     

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH₄. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO₂, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO_x and SO₂ should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.     

Hydrogen gas production in a microbial electrolysis cell by electrohydrogenesis

Electrohydrogenesis is a bio-electrochemical process where organic material is microbially oxidized to protons and electrons, which in turn are reduced to form hydrogen gas (H₂). The reactor in which these reactions occur is termed a microbial electrolysis cell (MEC). The microorganisms that colonize the anode are known as electricigens and behave as biological catalysts, significantly reducing the energy required to drive this process. Electricigens are capable of complete substrate degradation, leading to very high cathodic H₂ recovery efficiencies from sources previously considered organic waste. In this short review, the origination of the bio-electrochemical system (BES) is introduced, mechanisms for electron transfer between microbe and electrode are discussed, the challenges these electrochemical systems face are presented, and finally an overview of current MEC systems and their respective performance is evaluated. Electrohydrogenesis has established itself as a promising technology for sustainable H₂ production from renewable sources.     

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.     

Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism

The tendency for more closely related species to share similar traits and ecological strategies can be explained by their longer shared evolutionary histories and represents phylogenetic conservatism. How strongly species traits co-vary with phylogeny can significantly impact how we analyze cross-species data and can influence our interpretation of assembly rules in the rapidly expanding field of community phylogenetics. Phylogenetic conservatism is typically quantified by analyzing the distribution of species values on the phylogenetic tree that connects them. Many phylogenetic approaches, however, assume a completely sampled phylogeny: while we have good estimates of deeper phylogenetic relationships for many species-rich groups, such as birds and flowering plants, we often lack information on more recent interspecific relationships (i.e., within a genus). A common solution has been to represent these relationships as polytomies on trees using taxonomy as a guide. Here we show that such trees can dramatically inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism quantified using S. P. Blomberg et al.'s K statistic. Using simulations, we show that even randomly generated traits can appear to be phylogenetically conserved on poorly resolved trees. We provide a simple rarefaction-based solution that can reliably retrieve unbiased estimates of K, and we illustrate our method using data on first flowering times from Thoreau's woods (Concord, Massachusetts, USA).     

Mechanisms of moisture stress in a mid-latitude temperate forest: Implications for feedforward and feedback controls from an irrigation experiment

While it is well established that stomata close during moisture stress, strong correlations among environmental (e.g., vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, air temperature, radiation) and internal (e.g., leaf water potential, sap flow, root-shoot signaling) variables obscure the identification of causal mechanisms from field experiments. Models of stomatal control fitted to field data therefore suffer from ambiguous parameter identification, with multiple acceptable (i.e., nearly optimal) model structures emphasizing different moisture status indicators and different processes. In an effort to minimize these correlations and improve parameter and process identification, we conducted an irrigation experiment on red maples (Acer rubrum L.) at Harvard Forest (summers of 2005 and 2006). Control and irrigated trees experienced similar radiative and boundary layer forcings, but different soil moisture status, and thus presumably different diurnal cycles of internal leaf water potential. Measured soil moisture and atmospheric forcing were used to drive a transient tree hydraulic model that incorporated a Jarvis-type leaf conductance in a Penman–Monteith framework with a Cowan-type (resistance and capacitance) tree hydraulic representation. The leaf conductance model included dependence on both leaf matric potential, Ψ_L (so-called feedback control) and on vapor pressure deficit, D (so-called feedforward control). Model parameters were estimated by minimizing the error between predicted and measured sap flow. The whole-tree irrigation treatment had the effect of elevating measured transpiration during summer dry-downs, demonstrating the limiting effect that subsurface resistance may have on transpiration during these times of moisture stress. From the best fitted model, we infer that during dry downs, moisture stress manifests itself in an increase of soil resistance with a resulting decrease in Ψ_L, leading to both feedforward and feedback controls in the control trees, but only feedforward control for the irrigated set. Increases in the sum-of-squares error when individual model components were disabled allow us to reject the following three null hypotheses: (1) the f(D) stress is statistically insignificant (p = 0.01); (2) the f(Ψ_L) stress is statistically insignificant (p = 0.07); and (3) plant storage capacitance is independent of moisture status (p = 0.07).