Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Amniotic fluid microvillar enzyme activities in the early detection of fetal abnormalities

Measurement of the microvillar enzymes, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase (GGTP), aminopeptidase M (APM) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), in amniotic fluid supernatant has been proposed as a method for the early prenatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis. The activities of these enzymes in a series of other fetal abnormalities have now been examined. GGTP activities were below the 5th percentile in 28 out of 54 cases of trisomy 21 and 9 of 14 cases of trisomy 18, while APM values were below this cut-off in 26 of 54 cases of trisomy 21 and 8 of 14 cases of trisomy 18. Abnormal ALP isoenzyme ratios were found in 6 of 54 cases of trisomy 21 and 4 of 14 cases of trisomy 18. If prenatal cytogenetic studies are routinely carried out on amniotic fluid cells, the occasional confounding effect of abnormal microvillar enzymes associated with fetal trisomies rather than with cystic fibrosis should be avoided.     

A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Robinia pseudoacacia</Emphasis> stump feature based methodology for <Emphasis Type="Italic">in situ</Emphasis> forest degradation assessment

Initiatives for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation require transparent and robust methodologies for the estimation of emissions reduction or removal. Although carbon (C) stock change in degradation and devegetation by remote sensing are becoming increasingly powerful, the drivers of degradation, wood collection and harvest dynamics, cannot be understood without “on the ground” sampling. A methodological tool for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of forest degradation is proposed as developed based on a research on the stump history in the black locust degrading stands sampled in southwest Romania. Based on the survey of stumps, the cutting regime and wood extraction is determined over a past period of some 15 years. Stump age classification comprises multiple qualitative criteria (i.e. bark features; adherence of sprouts; cut edge features; etc.). The method allows for a quantitative assessment of wood removal over time, and is suitable for the development of a dynamic baseline and monitoring of degradation avoidance activities.     

Pulsed laser micro polishing: Surface prediction model

The objective of this work is to predict the final roughness of metal surfaces that have undergone pulsed laser micro polishing. The motivation for pulsed laser micro polishing is to reduce the surface roughness of parts whose surface texture can approach the feature size. Being able to predict the magnitude of the polishing and frequency (wavelength) content of the surface will assist in the design of optimal processing parameters with minimal experiments. Laser pulses are used to create shallow melt pools with a controlled size (e.g., depth) and duration in order to allow surface tension forces to “pull down” asperities with small radius of curvature. There is no ablation occurring in the process being modeled. The melt depth and duration are predicted with a transient, two-dimensional axisymmetric heat transfer model with temperature-dependent material properties. The surface of the melt pool is analytically modeled as oscillations of stationary capillary waves with damping resulting from the forces of surface tension and viscosity. Above a critical spatial frequency, f_cr, a significant reduction in the amplitude of the spatial Fourier components is expected. The work described in this paper extends the concept of critical frequency to a physics-based prediction methodology for predicting the spatial frequency content and surface roughness after polishing, given the features of the original surface, the material properties, and laser parameters. The proposed prediction methodology was validated using line polishing data for stainless steel 316L and area polishing results for pure nickel, Ti6Al4V, and Al-6061-T6. The predicted average surface roughnesses were within 12% of the values measured on the polished surfaces.     

Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change

This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.     

Ozone in Central England: the impact of 20 years of precursor emission controls in Europe

Episodic peak ozone levels over the 1990–2007 period appear to have declined strongly whilst annual mean daily maximum levels have risen over the same period at monitoring sites within the midlands regions of the UK. Sensitivity studies carried out with a photochemical trajectory model have shown that European policies to control Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) and Nitrogen Oxides (NO_x) emissions are the likely cause of the decline in episodic peak levels. There appeared to have been little influence on the episodic peak from changes in intercontinental trans-Atlantic transport but an overwhelming influence on the annual mean daily maximum levels. Non-linear relationships between VOC and NO_x emission controls and ozone, together with the ambition level set by policy-makers, appear to explain why ozone levels in Central England still do not meet internationally accepted air quality guidelines despite two decades of policy actions within Europe.     

Consistency and comparability of estimation and accounting of removal by sinks in afforestation/reforestation activities

The Kyoto Protocol accounting system and its market mechanisms, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), are built on the key principle that emission and emission reduction units generated by afforestation/reforestation activities under national systems and projects are fully comparable, no matter their origin. Lack of consistency in the quality of emission and emission reduction units can undermine the environmental integrity of the climate stabilization actions. Therefore, it is the ambition that units generated in the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector are of similar quality with those from non-LULUCF sectors. In this paper, the authors pose the question of whether there is full estimation and accounting consistency between Annex I Party’s national GHG systems and CDM projects methodologies in the LULUCF sector, in terms accuracy, completeness, levels of uncertainty and permanence risk. We focus on methodological aspects related to the applicability and practicability of using approved afforestation/reforestation CDM methodologies; estimation, reporting and accounting rules; the small pools and sources issue, uncertainty of removal estimate; leakage and handling of non-permanence risk. We conclude that there is significant scope for improving the consistency of greenhouse gas emission accounting from land use activities in the post-2012 climate change agreement, between Annex I domestic and project activities. As well, we conclude that the preparation and implementation of project activities has to be made simpler by a project framework guideline, which is then adapted to any project circumstances.     

Oceanic variability and coastal topography shape genetic structure in a long-dispersing sea urchin

Understanding the scale of marine population connectivity is critical for the conservation and sustainable management of marine resources. For many marine species adults are benthic and relatively immobile, so patterns of larval dispersal and recruitment provide the key to understanding marine population connectivity. Contrary to previous expectations, recent studies have often detected unexpectedly low dispersal and fine-scale population structure in the sea, leading to a paradigm shift in how marine systems are viewed. Nonetheless, the link between fine-scale marine population structure and the underlying physical and biological processes has not been made. Here we show that patterns of genetic structure and population connectivity in the broadcast-spawning and long-distance dispersing sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii are influenced by physical oceanographic and geographic variables. Despite weak genetic differentiation and no isolation-by-distance over thousands of kilometers among samples from eastern Australia and northern New Zealand, fine-scale genetic structure was associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability and geography along the southeastern Australian coast. The zone of high SST variability is characterized by periodic shedding of eddies from the East Australian Current, and we suggest that ocean current circulation may, through its influence on larval transport and recruitment, interact with the genetic consequences of large variance in individual reproductive success to generate patterns of fine-scale patchy genetic structure. If proven consistent across species, our findings suggest that the optimal scale for fisheries management and reserve design should vary among localities in relation to regional oceanographic variability and coastal geography.