Transcending scale dependence in identifying habitat with resource selection functions

Multi-scale resource selection modeling is used to identify factors that limit species distributions across scales of space and time. This multi-scale nature of habitat suitability complicates the translation of inferences to single, spatial depictions of habitat required for conservation of species. We estimated resource selection functions (RSFs) across three scales for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), with two objectives: (1) to infer the relative effects of two forms of anthropogenic disturbance (forestry and linear features) on woodland caribou distributions at multiple scales and (2) to estimate scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) that synthesize results across scales for management-oriented habitat suitability mapping. We found a previously undocumented scale-specific switch in woodland caribou response to two forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Caribou avoided forestry cut-blocks at broad scales according to first- and second-order RSFs and avoided linear features at fine scales according to third-order RSFs, corroborating predictions developed according to predator-mediated effects of each disturbance type. Additionally, a single SRSF validated as well as each of three single-scale RSFs when estimating habitat suitability across three different spatial scales of prediction. We demonstrate that a single SRSF can be applied to predict relative habitat suitability at both local and landscape scales in support of critical habitat identification and species recovery.     

Verifiable and non-verifiable anonymous mechanisms for regulating a polluting monopolist

Optimal regulation of a polluting natural monopolist must correct for both external damages and market power to achieve a social optimum. Existing non-Bayesian regulatory methods require knowledge of the demand function, while Bayesian schemes require knowledge of the underlying cost distribution. We introduce mechanisms adapted to use less information. Our Price-based Subsidy (PS) mechanisms give the firm a transfer that matches or approximates the incremental surplus generated each period. The regulator need not observe the abatement activity or know the demand, cost, or damage functions of the firm. All of the mechanisms induce the firm to price at marginal social cost, either immediately or asymptotically.     

Shoaling internal waves may reduce gravity current transport

Gravity currents descending along slopes have typically been studied in quiescent environments, despite the fact that in many geophysical settings there is significant externally driven motion. Here we investigate how the head of a gravity current is influenced by interfacial internal waves at the pycnocline of a two-layer ambient water column. Our experimental measurements show that larger amplitude internal waves, interacting with the gravity current, reduce both the mass transport by the gravity current and its thickness. These results suggest that the ambient internal wave field should be considered when estimating transport by gravity currents in geophysical settings with strong internal waves, such as lakes and the coastal ocean.     

Stress-induced recombination and the mechanism of evolvability

The concept of evolvability is controversial. To some, it is simply a measure of the standing genetic variation in a population and can be captured by the narrow-sense heritability (h²). To others, evolvability refers to the capacity to generate heritable phenotypic variation. Many scientists, including Darwin, have argued that environmental variation can generate heritable phenotypic variation. However, their theories have been difficult to test. Recent theory on the evolution of sex and recombination provides a much simpler framework for evaluating evolvability. It shows that modifiers of recombination can increase in prevalence whenever low fitness individuals produce proportionately more recombinant offspring. Because recombination can generate heritable variation, stress-induced recombination might be a plausible mechanism of evolvability if populations exhibit a negative relationship between fitness and recombination. Here we use the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, to test for this relationship. We exposed females to mating stress, heat shock or cold shock and measured the temporary changes that occurred in reproductive output and the rate of chromosomal recombination. We found that each stress treatment increased the rate of recombination and that heat shock, but not mating stress or cold shock, generated a negative relationship between reproductive output and recombination rate. The negative relationship was absent in the low-stress controls, which suggests that fitness and recombination may only be associated under stressful conditions. Taken together, these findings suggest that stress-induced recombination might be a mechanism of evolvability.     

Morphological abnormalities in frogs from a rice-growing region in NSW, Australia, with investigations into pesticide exposure

Three frog species (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis, Limnodynastes fletcheri and Litoria raniformis) were surveyed in rice bays of the Coleambally Irrigation Area (CIA), NSW, Australia, during the rice-growing seasons of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007. A total external morphological abnormality index of 7.0% was observed in frogs of the CIA (n?=?1,209). The types and frequencies of abnormalities were typical of reports from agricultural areas with ectrodactyly being the most common aberration. A relatively low abnormality index of 1.2% was observed in L. raniformis (n?=?87) compared to indices of 7.1% and 8.2% observed in L. fletcheri (n?=?694) and L. tasmaniensis (n?=?428), respectively. No conclusive evidence was found of unnaturally high rates of intersex, gonadal maldevelopment or unbalanced sex ratios in any species. Rice bay surface waters differed significantly in mean pesticide concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor on farms growing rice and corn compared to farms with rice as the sole crop. However, the similar abnormality indices observed in recent metamorphs emerging from these two farm types provided no evidence to suggest a link between larval exposure to the measured pesticides and developmental malformations.     

An empirical evaluation of the insurance hypothesis in diversity-stability models

An important stabilizing mechanism in most diversity stability models is the insurance hypothesis, which involves correlation/covariance relationships among species. These models require that species do not fluctuate synchronously over time: that is, the correlation between pairs of species does not equal 1.0. However, the strength of this stabilizing mechanism increases as correlations decline away from 1.0, especially as they become more negative and also as the summed covariance across all species pairs becomes more negative. We evaluated the importance of the insurance hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism by examining a variety of terrestrial assemblages using long-term data from the Global Population Dynamics Database, the Breeding Bird Survey, and a long-term site in southeastern Arizona, USA. We identified co-occurring assemblages of species and calculated the Spearman rank correlations of all pairs of species and the summed covariance of the entire assemblage. We found that, in most assemblages, positive correlations were two to three times more common than negative and that the magnitude of the positive correlations tended to be stronger than the negative correlations. For all but three assemblages, the summed covariance was positive. Data from larger spatial scales tended to exhibit more positive correlations, but even at the smallest spatial scales, positive correlations outnumbered negative. We suggest that species often covary positively because coexisting species respond similarly to fluctuations in their resource base driven by climatic fluctuations. As such, our review suggests that the insurance hypothesis may not be a strong mechanism stabilizing fluctuations in natural terrestrial communities.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Maternal serum thyroid antibodies in early pregnancy and fetal Down's syndrome

Thyroid antibodies were measured in mid-trimester antenatal serum samples from 77 pregnancies affected by fetal Down's syndrome and 385 unaffected control pregnancies. Using a haemagglutination technique, thyroglobulin antibodies were detected in 5·2 per cent of cases (4) and 2·9 per cent of controls (11), and thyroid microsomal antibodies were detected in 22 per cent (17) and 15 per cent (59), respectively. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for thyroglobulin antibodies and a cut-off level of 50 KIU/1, positive results were found in 25 per cent of cases (19) and 22 per cent of controls (84). Using an ELISA for thyroid microsomal antibodies and the same cut-off level, the proportions were 52 per cent (40) and 39 per cent (149), respectively. While not statistically significant, the differences were consistent with the previously reported increased levels of thyroid antibody found in nonpregnant women who had had pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome.