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341.
Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models. 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis. 相似文献
342.
Gerard I.J.M.Zwetsloot 《生态毒理学报》2003,25(3):84-88
内在的安全性,是一种利用没有毒性、可燃性或不稳定性的工艺与材料的方法,它通常被认为是化工厂设计的一个重要概念.受到清洁生产成功发展的鼓舞,进行了一项类似的有关内在安全生产的发展可行性研究.在1997-1998年进行的初步试验案例中,发展并检验了一个产生内在安全的技术选择的方法论.该研究表明,大部分选择的偿还时间少于两年,而且内在安全的生产是一个可行的概念,有可能同时产生巨大的安全与经济成效的改善,并且可以结合进清洁生产计划. 相似文献
343.
Nicholas L. Clesceri Sidney J. Curran Richard I. Sedlak 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(6):991-1000
ABSTRACT: A comparison of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and nonpoint source nutrient loads to Wisconsin's 14,927 inland lakes was performed. Only 65 of the 2,925 Wisconsin lakes having surface areas of at least eight ha and a maximum depth of at least 2.4 m had one or more WWTP's located within 40 km upstream; 99 of Wisconsin's 477 WWTP's were identified to be upstream of these 65 lakes. WWTP total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads to these 65 lakes were estimated using per capita influent loads and removal efficiencies based on wastewater treatment types. Nonpoint source nutrient loads were calculated utilizing nutrient export coefficients derived specifically for Wisconsin. Total nitrogen inputs to the lakes were dominated by nonpoint sources. The effectiveness of various phosphorus control programs to produce water quality improvements visible to the public was estimated to be as follows (going from most to least effective): municipal phosphorus removal and agricultural reductions, municipal phosphorus removal alone, agricultural reduction plus phosphate detergent ban, agricultural reductions alone, and phosphate detergent ban alone. The last option would not be expected to produce water quality improvement visible to the public in any Wisconsin lakes. The differences between the distributions in Wisconsin of population and inland lakes highlights the need to consider regional characteristics in any statewide water quality management plan. 相似文献
344.
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are of environmental concern due to their toxic nature. Ionizing radiation has been suggested as a means to remediate PCB-contaminated samples in complex matrices. A set of experiments was performed to qualitatively and quantitatively determine the aromatic degradation products of 2-monochlorobiphenyl (2-MCB) in an aqueous system exposed to ionizing radiation. The degradation of 2-MCB was observed in aqueous samples that were exposed to radiation from a linear accelerator electron beam source. Analytical measurements performed by liquid chromatography (LC) equipped with an ultraviolet (UV) detector revealed that biphenyl, o-hydroxybiphenyl, p-hydroxybiphenyl, phenol, chlorobenzene, and other unidentified products were created after 2-MCB irradiation. These results suggest that sensitive and selective analytical methods will be required to account for all degradation products during ionizing radiation of aqueous PCB-contaminated samples. 相似文献
345.
Linda A. Crawford Ian D. Hodkinson Nicholas W. Lepp 《Environmental geochemistry and health》1990,12(3):245-251
Broad beans (Vicia faba L.), cultured hydroponically were supplied with 100 g mL–1 copper or 50 g mL–1 cadmium in nutrient solution. Samples of plant material from both nutrient regimes were analysed before and after infestation by the black bean aphid (Aphis fabae Scop.). Heavy aphid infestation resulted in a significant reduction in copper content of shoots in comparison with uninfested plants. A similar, but less well- defined, situation occurred in the case of cadmium.Further investigations examined the effects of different levels of aphid infestation on the above phenomena. In all cases the presence of feeding aphids reduced elemental accumulation in plant shoots. Long term infestation with population densities as low as three adult aphids showed a reduction in shoot copper and cadmium content. 相似文献
346.
Dickey CA Heal KV Cape JN Stidson RT Reeves NM Heal MR 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2005,7(2):137-144
Soil is an important compartment in the environmental cycling of trichloroacetic acid (TCA), but soil TCA concentration is a methodologically defined quantity; analytical methods either quantify TCA in an aqueous extract of the soil, or thermally decarboxylate TCA to chloroform in the whole soil sample. The former may underestimate the total soil TCA, whereas the latter may overestimate TCA if other soil components (e.g. humic material) liberate chloroform under the decarboxylation conditions. The aim of this work was to show that extraction and decarboxylation methods yield different TCA concentrations because the decarboxylation method can also determine "bound" TCA. Experiments with commercial humic acid solutions showed there was no additional chloroform formation under decarboxylation conditions, and that all TCA in a TCA-humic acid mixture could be quantitatively determined (108 +/- 13%). Anion exchange resin was used as a provider of solid-phase TCA binding; only 5 +/- 1% of a TCA solution mixed with the resin was present in the aqueous extract subsequently separated from the resin, yet the decarboxylation method yielded mass balance (123 +/- 22%) with TCA remaining in the resin. In aqueous extraction of a range of soil samples (with or without added TCA spike), the decarboxylation method was able to satisfactorily account for TCA in the extractant + residue post-extraction, compared with whole-soil TCA (+ spike) pre-extraction: e.g. mass balances for unspiked soil from Sikta spruce and larch forest were 99 +/- 8% and 93 +/- 6%, respectively, and for TCA-spiked forest and agricultural soils were 114 +/- 13% and 102 +/- 2%. In each case recovery of TCA in the extractant was substantially less than 100%(<20% for unspiked soils, <55% for spiked soils). Extraction efficiencies were generally lower in more organic soils. The results suggest that analytical methods which utilise aqueous extraction may underestimate whole-soil TCA concentrations. Application of both methodologies together may enhance insight into TCA behaviour in soil. 相似文献
347.
Nicholas M. Holden John F. Dowd Andrew G. Williams David Scholefield 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1995,36(3):217-228
The use of chloride as a tracer for soil water investigations is discussed. Limitations with laboratory based soil core and field based sampling are considered with respect to the poor suitability of the data for rigorous assessment of mechanistic models. Investigation of water movement in soil has been restricted by limitations in spatial and temporal sampling. Fine resolution sampling generates large numbers of samples which cause problems with post sampling laboratory analysis. This paper describes a field-based system for the analysis of chloride in soil water. There are three component parts to the system, (i) a custom sampling sub-system comprising of ceramic cup suction samplers and sample traps, (ii) a sample routing sub-system to channel sample to (iii) a sample analysis sub-system utilizing a flow injection method for sample analysis using a custom built photo-diode detector. The three sub-systems were controlled by a suitably equipped personal computer. A calibration procedure is described with a third order polynomial equation derived to convert millivolt response from the detector into chloride concentration. Field and laboratory data from a tracer experiment are presented and discussed, and it is concluded that the system is well suited to field-based applications. Finally it is noted that the photo-detector is suitable for colourimetric analysis of any tracer with suitable chemical determination. 相似文献
348.
Bin Wang Ning Li Furong Deng Nicholas Buglak George Park Shu Su Aiguo Ren Guofeng Shen Shu Tao Xinbiao Guo 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2016,28(9):201-210
Epidemiological studies have demonstrated the exacerbation of respiratory diseases following sandstorm-derived particulate matter(PM) exposure.The presence of anthropogenic and biological agents on the sandstorm PM and the escalation of PM 2.5 μm(PM2.5)pollution in China have led to serious concerns regarding the health effects of PM2.5during Asian sandstorms.We investigated how changes in PM2.5composition,as the weather transitioned towards a sandstorm,affected human airway epithelial cells.Six PM2.5samples covering two sandstorm events and their respective background and transition periods were collected in Baotou,an industrial city near the Gobi Desert in China.PM samples from all three periods had mild cytotoxicity in human bronchial epithelial cell line BEAS-2B,which was positively correlated with the contents of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and several metals.All PM samples potently increased the release of interleukin-6(IL-6) and interleukin-8(IL-8).Endotoxin in all samples contributed significantly to the IL-6 response,with only a minor effect on IL-8.Cr was positively correlated with both IL-6 and IL-8 release,while Si was only associated with the increase of IL-6.Our study suggests that local agricultural and industrial surroundings in addition to the sandstorm play important roles in the respiratory effects of sandstorm-derived PM. 相似文献
349.
Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter. 相似文献
350.
While an extensive literature exists on the negative effects of invasive species, little is known about their facilitative effects on native species, particularly the role of invasives as trophic subsidies to native predators. The invasive gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) undergoes periodic outbreaks during which it represents a super-abundant food source for predators capable of consuming it, particularly native cuckoos (Coccyzus erythropthalmus and C. americanus). We examined how gypsy moth outbreaks affect the abundance and distribution of cuckoos using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and 29 years of U.S. Forest Service gypsy moth defoliation records. Abundances of both Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos were significantly above average during outbreaks, but populations were average or below average in preceding and subsequent years, suggesting that cuckoos are immigrating to defoliations during outbreak years. Spatial analyses showed that cuckoo abundances approximately 40-150 km outside of defoliation areas were significantly below average, and these under-occupied breeding areas extended in all four compass directions around outbreaks. This result supports the idea that cuckoos locate gypsy moth outbreaks during a post-migratory nomadic phase. By shifting the annual distribution of cuckoos, gypsy moths may be shifting the trophic impact of cuckoos across large distances, which could affect native insect herbivores and plants. 相似文献