Evaluating Participatory Modeling: Developing a Framework for Cross-Case Analysis

Participatory modeling is increasingly recognized as an effective way to assist collective decision-making processes in the domain of natural resource management. This article introduces a framework for evaluating projects that have adopted a participatory modeling approach. This evaluation framework—known as the “Protocol of Canberra”—was developed through a collaboration between French and Australian researchers engaged in participatory modeling and evaluation research. The framework seeks to assess the extent to which different participatory modeling initiatives not only modify perceptions among and interactions between participants, but also contribute to collective decision-making. The article discusses the development of the framework and it’s application to three case-studies, two from Australia and one from the Pacific Island of the Republic of Kiribati. The article concludes with some comments for future use of the framework in a range of participatory modeling contexts.     

The development of a sustainable urban district in Hammarby Sjöstad,Stockholm, Sweden?

By 2012, Hammarby Sjöstad, a former large industrial harbor area in southern Stockholm, Sweden, will be a fully developed residential district containing approximately 11,000 apartments and accommodating 35,000 people. The transformation of the area began in 1996, and the development soon became renowned for its ambitious environmental program, inspired by Agenda 21 (United Nations in Rio declaration on environment and development. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Rio de Janeiro, 1992) and the Sydney 2000 Olympics in Australia (Newman in Landsc Urban Plan 44:219–226, 1999). Using results based on literature reviews, in-depth interviews, discussions with focus groups, and quantitative data, this paper attempts to gain insight into how the environmental program influenced the planning and performance of the district with regard to sustainable urban development. In doing so, three important conclusions were maintained that could be valuable for similar projects concerning the planning and development of sustainable urban districts. First, the environmental program proved vital to the development process of Hammarby Sjöstad, specifically in its drive to create a sustainable urban district. When planning on improving the sustainability of future districts, such a program should be introduced and integrated earlier in the planning stage of the district. Second, the metabolic flows of Hammarby Sjöstad were reduced as a result of the integrated system—the Hammarby Model—of Hammarby Sjöstad. In order to reduce the metabolic flows in future urban districts even further, it is important to facilitate the integration of technical innovations into existing integrated systems. Third, this case study showed that there was a loss of valid and credible data related to the aims and goals of the environmental program of Hammarby Sjöstad. In future urban districts, it is of the utmost importance to include a clear structure of the assessment process in the environmental program, which would ensure the quality of gathered data and facilitate the development of even better sustainable urban districts in the future.     

Phyt'Eaux Cités: application and validation of a programme to reduce surface water contamination with urban pesticides

This paper presents first results of Phyt’Eaux Cités, a program put in place by the local water supply agency, the SEDIF (Syndicat des Eaux d’Ile-de-France), in collaboration with 73 local authorities, private societies and institutional offices (365 km²). The challenges included: measurement of the previous surface water contamination, control of urban pesticide applications, prevention of pesticide hazard on users and finally a overall reduction of surface water contamination. An inquiry on urban total pesticide amount was coupled with a surface water bi-weekly monitoring to establish the impact of more than 200 molecules upon the Orge River. For 2007, at least 4400 kg and 92 type of pesticides (essentially herbicides) were quantified for all urban users in the Phyt’Eaux Cités perimeter. At the outlet of the Orge River (bi-weekly sampling in 2007), 11 molecules were always detected above 0.1 μg L⁻¹. They displayed the mainly urban origin of pesticide surface water contamination. Amitrole, AMPA (Aminomethyl Phosphonic Acid), demethyldiuron, diuron, glyphosate and atrazine were quantified with a 100% of frequency in 2007 and 2008 at the Orge River outlet. During the year, peaks of contamination were also registered for MCCP, 2,4 MCPA, 2,4 D, triclopyr, dichlorprop, diflufènican, active substances used in large amount in the urban area. However, some other urban molecules, such as isoxaben or flazasulfuron, were detected with low frequency. During late spring and summer, contamination patterns and load were dominated by glyphosate, amitrole and diuron, essentially applied by cities and urban users. Both isoproturon and chlortoluron were quantified during autumn and winter months according to upstream agricultural practices. In conclusion, 3 years after the beginning of this programme, the cities reduced the use of 68% of the total pesticide amount. An improvement on surface water quality was found from 2008 and during 2009 for all pesticides. In particular, glyphosate showed a decrease of the load above 60% in 2008, partly related to the Phyt’Eaux Cités action.     

Genetic Variability in Swayne's Hartebeest, an Endangered Antelope of Ethiopia

Abstract: Swayne's hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei ) is an endangered antelope that survives in four or five relict populations in Ethiopia. We examined the two main populations (Senkele and Nechisar) for mitochondrial (D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellite) variability in order to measure levels of genetic variation within the subspecies and degree of differentiation between populations. For comparison, we examined samples from a large population of red hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus caama ). Both swaynei and caama exhibited high levels of variation. There was significant differentiation between the populations of swaynei at Senkele and Nechisar, and gene diversity in Nechisar, the smaller of the two populations, was significantly lower than that in Senkele. Many mitochondrial haplotypes and microsatellite alleles present at high frequencies among the Senkele individuals were missing in Nechisar, suggesting that the translocation of animals from Senkele undertaken in 1974 did not contribute notably to the gene pool in Nechisar. Subsamples taken from Senkele in 1988 and 1995 showed a significant change in allele frequencies, a change that probably can be attributed to a massive population decline during this period. We recommend that both populations be protected in situ to maintain as much as possible of the diversity that exists within the taxon and that a breeding program be established. In spite of the earlier unsuccessful attempt, we argue that translocation of animals for enhancement of population size as well as genetic variation in Nechisar should be considered.     

Genetic Effects of Multiple Generations of Supportive Breeding

Abstract: The practice of supporting weak wild populations by capturing a fraction of the wild individuals, bringing them into captivity for reproduction, and releasing their offspring into the natural habitat to mix with wild ones is called supportive breeding and has been widely applied in the fields of conservation biology and fish and wildlife management. This procedure is intended to increase population size without introducing exogenous genes into the managed population. Previous work examining the genetic effects of a single generation of supportive breeding has shown that although a successful program increases the census population size, it may reduce the genetically effective population size and thereby induce excessive inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. We expand and generalize previous analyses of supportive breeding and consider the effects of multiple generations of supportive breeding on rates of inbreeding and genetic drift. We derived recurrence equations for the inbreeding coefficient and coancestry, and thereby equations for inbreeding and variance effective sizes, under three models for selecting captive breeders: at random, preferentially among those born in captivity, and preferentially among those born in the wild. Numerical examples indicate that supportive breeding, when carried out successfully over multiple generations, may increase not only the census but also the effective size of the supported population as a whole. If supportive breeding does not result in a substantial and continuous increase of the census size of the breeding population, however, it might be genetically harmful because of elevated rates of inbreeding and genetic drift.     

Does the Swedish consumer's choice of food influence greenhouse gas emissions?

Consumer's choice of food can influence the environment. In Sweden, in common with many other countries, consumers need to be given information so they can make environmentally informed shopping choices. However, what is the most advantageous dietary choice to lower greenhouse emissions? This study investigates the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food production for food consumed in Sweden annually. Specifically, this study compares greenhouse gas emissions associated with a nutritionally and environmentally sustainable diet with the average consumption of food in Sweden 1999. The study concludes that the change in energy use and greenhouse gas emission associated with this change of diet is negligible. Lowering greenhouse gas emissions by changing food production processes results in more profound changes than teaching consumers to make environmentally correct choices. There is a basic need for a reduction or a replacement of the use of fossil fuels to produce and distribute our food in order to reach any significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases. Swedish agricultural policy does not provide ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Sweden therefore there is an immediate need to design policy instruments with the primary aim of reducing the greenhouse effect.     

Sirenomelia,the mermaid syndrome—detection in the first trimester

The sirenomelia sequence with fusion, rotation, hypotrophy or atrophy of the lower limbs in combination with severe urogenital and gastrointestinal malformations is a rare and usually lethal disorder. We present the case of a 28-year-old woman, who was referred to our department because of an intraabdominal cystic structure in the 9th week of gestation. Subsequent scans confirmed the diagnosis of a sirenomelia sequence with the fusion of the lower extremities without fusion of the bones according to Stocker I classification. The size of the intraabdominal cyst decreased during follow-up. After counseling, termination of pregnancy was induced. The postmortem X-ray confirmed the ultrasound diagnosis. The exact etiological mechanism of this malformation is still unknown. An early alteration of the embryological vascular network damaging the caudal mesoderm is thought to lead to arrested development of the lower limbs and other affected organs. The cyst we saw in the 9th week might fit with this theory, either as an expression of the complex malformation of the lower abdomen or as the sonographic appearance of necrosis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In vivo measurements of the internal pH of Hediste (Nereis) diversicolor (Annelida, Polychaeta) exposed to ambient sulphidic conditions using pH microelectrodes

 The effect of different ambient sulphide concentrations on the internal pH regime of Hediste (Nereis) diversicolor was studied under in vivo conditions using liquid membrane pH microelectrodes, a method which is new to marine sciences. As a case study, the hypothesis was tested whether organisms exposed to ambient sulphidic conditions are able to lower their internal pH which, in effect, would reduce sulphide influx into the animals and thus could represent an effective detoxification mechanism. It was shown that a significant lowering of the internal pH occurred within only 20 min after adding sulphide. This pH lowering appeared to be dependent on the external sulphide concentration of the ambient medium and showed a saturation beyond a threshold level of about 130 μM. It is discussed whether this sulphide-induced pH drop is an active regulatory mechanism and acts as an effective protection mechanism against sulphide during short-term exposures. Received: 1 June 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 3 May 2000