Valuing damage to historic buildings using a contingent market: a case study of road traffic externalities

Pricing of road transport at social marginal cost should make users aware of the cost of damaging the environment (external costs). Such an approach, however, requires a monetary estimate of this damage which can be difficult to derive. On the basis of a study carried out at Neuchâtel (Switzerland), the contingent valuation method was used to estimate the damage caused to buildings of historical and cultural value by traffic‐caused air pollution. In a survey, individuals were asked to contribute to a fund set up to finance the maintenance of pre‐selected historic buildings. A valuation function to predict willingness‐to‐pay responses is estimated.     

Small-scale genetic structure in a marine population in relation to water circulation and egg characteristics

Until the last decade it was assumed that most marine species have pronounced gene flow over vast areas, largely because of their potential for dispersal during early life stages. However, recent genetic, modeling, and field studies have shown that marine populations may be structured at scales that are inconsistent with extensive dispersal of eggs and larvae. Such findings have stimulated the birth of new studies explaining the mechanisms that promote population structure and isolation in the oceans, in the face of high potential for dispersal. Here we study the vertical and horizontal distribution of cod (Gadus morhua) eggs in relation to small-scale circulation and water column hydrography in a coastal location of southern Norway. Previous studies conducted in this region have shown that cod populations inhabiting fjord locations, which are on average 30 km apart, are genetically differentiated, a remarkable outcome considering that Atlantic cod have pelagic egg stages and long pelagic larval duration. We document that cod eggs are found in greater abundance in shallow water layers, which on average are flowing up the fjord (away from the open ocean), and in the inner portion of the fjord, which is subject to lower current speeds compared to the outer or mouth of the fjord. Eggs were found to be neutrally buoyant at shallow depths, a trait that also favors local retention, given the local circulation. The same patterns held during two environmentally contrasting years. These results strongly suggest that population structure of Atlantic cod is favored and maintained by a balance between water circulation and egg characteristics.     

The role of body size in early mating behavior in a simultaneous hermaphrodite, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chelidonura sandrana</Emphasis>

Intraspecific variation in mating behavior is widespread among simultaneous hermaphrodites but its underlying sources remain largely unexplored. In the sea slug Chelidonura sandrana, most matings are reciprocal. However, despite non-conditional sperm exchange and potential polygamy-mediated benefits, 30% of matings end after unilateral insemination. To resolve this apparent inconsistency, we here investigated the effect of body size on the frequency of reciprocal matings by testing the following two hypotheses. First, sex-allocation theory predicts that the likelihood of reciprocity depends on the size difference between mating partners. Second, if both sex functions temporally differ in reaching maturity, reciprocal matings should be more frequent with increasing absolute body size of the smaller partner. The likelihood of reciprocity increased with body size of the smaller partner. Moreover, smaller individuals acted more often as males among unilateral matings. These findings suggest that the ability to donate sperm develops prior to female functionality in C. sandrana.     

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.     

Demographic shifts around drinking water supply reservoirs in North Carolina,USA

Infrastructure intended to serve the public good frequently has implications for environmental justice and social sustainability. Drinking water supplies for sub/urban areas in North Carolina, USA, have regularly been secured by constructing dams to impound reservoirs. We used high-resolution, publicly available US Census data to explore whether 66 such reservoirs in North Carolina have induced demographic shifts in the communities that find themselves adjacent to the newly created lakeshores. Our principal findings include: (1) The ratio of white people to non-white people was significantly higher in communities within 0.5 miles of reservoir shorelines than in more distant communities; (2) even as North Carolina overall became less white from 1990 to 2010, the ratio of white people to non-white people within the 0.5 miles of the shoreline increased relative to the overall ratio in the State; and (3) similar, but less distinct, shifts in per capita income occurred during the period. Our results are consistent with the proposition that reservoirs have induced demographic shifts in communities adjacent to newly created lakeshores similar to the shifts associated with environmental gentrification and amenity migration, and may now be associated with perpetuating those shifts. These findings raise concerns about environmental justice and social sustainability that should be considered when planning and building infrastructure that creates environmental amenities. Where reservoirs are being planned, social costs, including the costs of demographic shifts associated with environmental gentrification or amenity migration, and disproportionate regulatory burdens, should be mitigated through innovative policy if possible.     

Whole blood is the sample matrix of choice for monitoring systemic triclocarban levels

The antibacterial triclocarban (TCC) concentrates in the cellular fraction of blood. Consequently, plasma levels are at least two-fold lower than the TCC amount present in blood. Utilizing whole blood sampling, a low but significant absorption of TCC from soap during showering is demonstrated for a small group of human subjects.     

Identification of substances with potential for long-range transport as possible substances of very high concern

According to the European legislation, REACH, organic compounds are considered as substances of very high concern (SVHC) if they are persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT). A substance's long-range transport potential (LRTP) may also pose a risk to remote regions. This is, however, not yet explicitly included. For identification of compounds, which are not PBT according to REACH criteria, but show LRTP, we investigated 22,438 compounds from the Canadian Domestic Substance List (CDSL). The CDSL was searched for organic, neutral compounds. Substance properties were estimated with EPI Suite v4.00. Next, the substance list was edited in two ways: (1) The half-life criterion in air for LRTP as defined in the Stockholm Convention was applied. (2) For all compounds, indicators for persistence and LRTP were calculated with the multimedia model ELPOS v2.2. Applying the half-life criterion, we identified 594 substances, which are prone to LRT but are not PBT (non-PBT-L substances). In contrast, investigations with ELPOS lead to a shorter list of 188 substances, which are non-PBT-L substances. Finally, the list was compared with potential Arctic contaminants identified in previous literature. Our results show that there is a large number of organic chemicals which would not be considered as SVHC since they are not, at the same time, persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic according to REACH criteria. Nevertheless, they show LRTP according to different screening approaches and thus a potential hazard to remote regions.     

Monitoring plastic ingestion by the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis in the North Sea

The abundance of plastics in stomachs of northern fulmars from the North Sea is used in the OSPAR Ecological Quality Objective (EcoQO) for marine litter. The preliminary EcoQO defines acceptable ecological quality as the situation where no more than 10% of fulmars exceed a critical level of 0.1 g of plastic in the stomach. During 2003-2007, 95% of 1295 fulmars sampled in the North Sea had plastic in the stomach (on average 35 pieces weighing 0.31 g) and the critical level of 0.1 g of plastic was exceeded by 58% of birds, with regional variations ranging from 48 to 78%. Long term data for the Netherlands since the 1980s show a decrease of industrial, but an increase of user plastics, with shipping and fisheries as the main sources. The EcoQO is now also used as an indicator for Good Environmental Status in the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.     

Intersection AEB implementation strategies for left turn across path crashes

Abstract

Objective: Left turn across path with traffic from the opposite direction (LTAP/OD) is the second most frequent car-to-car intersection crash type after straight crossing path (SCP) in Germany and the United States. Intersection automated emergency braking (AEB) for passenger cars can address these crashes.

This study investigates 2 implementation strategies of intersection AEB addressing LTAP/OD crashes: (1) only the turning car is equipped with an intersection AEB and (2) turning and straight-heading cars are equipped with an intersection AEB. For each strategy, the influence of a safety zone around the vehicles that should not be entered is evaluated in terms of accident avoidance, injury mitigation, and change in velocity (delta-V) of remaining accidents. Results are given as a function of market penetration.

Methods: A total of 372 LTAP/OD crashes from the time series precrash matrix (PCM), a subsample of the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), were resimulated in the PRediction of Accident Evolution by Diversification of Influence factors in COmputer simulation (PRAEDICO) simulation framework. A Kudlich-Slibar rigid-body impact model and an injury risk curve derived from GIDAS were used to predict remaining moderate to fatal (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale [MAIS] 2?+?F) injuries among car occupants.

Results: With a safety zone of 0.2 m, when the turning vehicle only was equipped with an intersection AEB, 59% of the crashes were avoided at a 100% market penetration. With both vehicles equipped the percentage increased to 77%. MAIS 2?+?F injured occupants were reduced by 60 and 76%, respectively. Considering both the turning and the straight-heading vehicles, the delta-V decreased strongly with market penetration in remaining left-side impacts but only slightly in remaining frontal and right-side impacts. Eliminating the safety zone substantially decreases effectiveness in all conditions.

Conclusions: Implementation strategy and safety zone definition strongly influence the real-life performance of intersection AEB. AEB should be applied not only for the turning vehicle but also for the straight-going vehicle to benefit from the full potential. Situationally appropriate safety zone definitions, in line with human hazard perception, need more attention and are a key to balance true positive and false positive performance. Remaining delta-V does not decrease broadly; hence, there is no evidence that future LTAP/OD crashes will be generally of lower severity. This highlights the need for continuous development of in-crash protection.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.