On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Ornamental Marine Species Culture in the Coral Triangle: Seahorse Demonstration Project in the Spermonde Islands,Sulawesi, Indonesia

Ornamental marine species (‘OMS’) provide valuable income for developing nations in the Indo-Pacific Coral Triangle, from which most of the specimens are exported. OMS culture can help diversify livelihoods in the region, in support of management and conservation efforts to reduce destructive fishing and collection practices that threaten coral reef and seagrass ecosystems. Adoption of OMS culture depends on demonstrating its success as a livelihood, yet few studies of OMS culture exist in the region. We present a case study of a land-based culture project for an endangered seahorse (Hippocampus barbouri) in the Spermonde Islands, Sulawesi, Indonesia. The business model demonstrated that culturing can increase family income by seven times. A Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis indicated good collaboration among diverse stakeholders and opportunities for culturing non-endangered species and for offshoot projects, but complicated permitting was an issue as were threats of market flooding and production declines. The OMS international market is strong, Indonesian exporters expressed great interest in cultured product, and Indonesia is the largest exporting country for H. barbouri. Yet, a comparison of Indonesia ornamental marine fish exports to fish abundance in a single local market indicated that OMS culture cannot replace fishing livelihoods. Nevertheless, seahorse and other OMS culture can play a role in management and conservation by supplementing and diversifying the fishing and collecting livelihoods in the developing nations that provide the majority of the global OMS.     

Nonthermal GSM RF and ELF EMF effects upon rat BBB permeability

Since the late 1980s, our group has examined the effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF), including pulse-modulated waves of the type emitted by mobile phones, upon the blood?Cbrain barrier. In more than 2,000 rats, we have repeatedly demonstrated a passage of the rats?? own albumin from the blood through the brain capillaries into the surrounding brain parenchyma at SAR values down to 0.1mW/kg. In most of these experiments, the animals were exposed in TEM-cells, ventilated by an external electrical fan at 50 Hz. In the present study, we examined whether the extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields from the fan (50 Hz, 0.3?C1.5 ??T) might add to the RF effect. Sixty-four rats were divided into 4 groups: RF only, ELF only and RF + ELF exposure plus a sham group. The GSM-900 MHz RF exposure was at the very low, nonthermal, average whole-body SAR level 0.4 mW/kg. Demonstration of the normally occurring albumin extravasation in the basal hypothalamus is our inbuilt control proving that the staining is reliable. Two full series of staining of the whole material gave negative results for hypothalamus. Not until we changed to avidin, biotin, and antibodies from a third supplier, we received an acceptable staining. Twenty-five percent of the RF animals had a pathological albumin leakage, while the ELF and RF + ELF groups with three and two pathological findings, respectively, were not significantly different from the control group. We conclude that the use of external fans has had no major influence upon the result.     

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.     

Twenty‐One‐Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Using the CE‐QUAL‐ICM Eutrophication Model

The CE‐QUAL‐ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21‐year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985‐2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model package and is forced, in part, by models of atmospheric deposition, watershed flows and loads, and hydrodynamics. Results from the model are compared with observations in multiple formats including time series plots, cumulative distribution plots, and statistical summaries. The model indicates only one long‐term trend in computed water quality: light attenuation deteriorates circa 1993 through the end of the simulation. The most significant result is the influence of physical processes, notably stratification and associated effects (e.g., anoxic volume), on computed water quality. Within the application period, physical effects are more important determinants of year‐to‐year variability in computed water quality than external loads.     

Using Collaborative Technology in Environmental Strategy Development

This viewpoint explores, through a case study in Malawi, the application of collaborative technology tools to support National Environmental Strategy Development initiatives with the public and private sectors in Africa. A particular type of groupware, Group Support Systems, is introduced as a technology and approach that enables large groups of stakeholders to be involved in efficient and effective decision making. It helped the different ministries, community leaders, the private sector, NGOs, and different donors to find new and challenging opportunities for collaboration. The results of the case study show how an environmental strategy, including a prioritised plan of action, was developed and presented to the Ministry within three days. The most important lessons are identified. Participants to the presentation of the paper will be given hands-on experience using these tools.     

Approaches to integrated water resource development and management

In southern Africa institutional capacity in the water sector is severely limited by diminishing regular budget and external assistance allocations. The result has been an overall decline in operational water resource management. This is ironic given the international community's current concern with 'integrated' or 'comprehensive' water resources management. Often, so-called integrated attempts at river basin planning and development have been conceived within the framework of a river basin authority or regional master plans. Such large-scale attempts have not necessarily been compatible either with the national capacity in water resources management or the existing institutional and legislative frameworks. In many cases the actual integration of a basin's physical resources and social, economic and environmental demands is poorly executed. To examine a way forward in resolving what is clearly an unsustainable state of affairs, a diagnostic study of the Kafue Basin, Zambia, was carried out in order to identify a set of water resource management options for a basin currently under stress. A physical framework for the Kafue Basin was established and principal subcatchments and hydro-geological subsystems identified. Current water resource issues in the basin are discussed and a multiobjective approach is proposed to allow intersectoral competition for the basin's limited water resources to be reconciled.     

Identification of chlordane compounds in harbour seals from the coastal waters of the Netherlands

In a study of two unknown compounds in blubber of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) of the Dutch North Sea coast combined capillary gas chromaiographic mass spectrometric data indicated the presence of trans-nonachlor and oxychlordane. These compounds have never been identified in environmental biota in The Netherlands before.