History and Development of the NRCS Lag Time Equation1

Abstract: Many of the hydrologic methods that are used in engineering practice today resulted from the Spring Flood of 1936, which blanketed the Northeastern portion of the United States. Because of the flood damage that was caused by this rainfall‐snowmelt event, many federal agencies including the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) implemented the hydrologic theories that were available in the literature at this time and developed hydrologic procedures for design flow estimation. Sherman had recently published his unit hydrograph theory in 1932, and later in 1938 Snyder, who had been charged by the Water Resource Council to develop a synthetic unit hydrograph, published his famous paper. The SCS unit hydrograph theory was developed by Victor Mockus in the late 1950s. Most if not all of the theories at that time reported the rainfall‐runoff process for floods as a surface phenomenon, and as such those theories all required some type of a timing parameter to estimate watershed response time. This article documents the development of the SCS lag equation.     

Robust, comparable population metrics through collaborative photo-monitoring of whale sharks Rhincodon typus.

The formulation of conservation policy for species that are rare and migratory requires broad cooperation to ensure that adequate levels of standardized data collection are achieved and that the results of local analyses are comparable. Estimates of apparent survival rate, relative change in abundance, and proportions of newly marked and returning individuals can inform local management decisions while highlighting corresponding changes at other linked research stations. We have applied computer-assisted photo-identification and mark-recapture population modeling to whale sharks Rhincodon typus at Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP), Western Australia, to create a baseline trend for comparison with other regional aggregations of the species. We estimate several ecological parameters of interest, including an average apparent survival rate of 0.55 yr(-1) for sharks newly marked (new) and 0.83 yr(-1) for sharks captured in multiple seasons (philopatric). The average proportion of philopatric sharks is found to be 0.65 of the total population, and we derive an average population growth rate of 1.12 yr(-1) for them. Our analysis uncovered significant heterogeneity in capture and survival probabilities in this study population; our chosen model structures and data analysis account for these influences and demonstrate a good overall fit to the time-series data. The results show good correspondence between capture probability and an available measure of recapture effort, suggesting that unmodeled systematic effects contribute insignificantly to the model fits. We find no evidence of a decline in the whale shark population at NMP, and our results provide metrics of value to their future management. Overall, our study suggests an effective approach to analyzing and modeling mark-recapture data for a rare species using computer-assisted photo-identification and opportunistic data collection from ecotourism to ensure the quality and volume of data required for population analysis.     

Early atmospheric detection of carbon dioxide from carbon capture and storage sites

The early atmospheric detection of carbon dioxide (CO₂) leaks from carbon capture and storage (CCS) sites is important both to inform remediation efforts and to build and maintain public support for CCS in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. A gas analysis system was developed to assess the origin of plumes of air enriched in CO₂, as to whether CO₂ is from a CCS site or from the oxidation of carbon compounds. The system measured CO₂ and O₂ concentrations for different plume samples relative to background air and calculated the gas differential concentration ratio (GDCR = ?ΔO₂/ΔCO₂). The experimental results were in good agreement with theoretical calculations that placed GDCR values for a CO₂ leak at 0.21, compared with GDCR values of 1–1.8 for the combustion of carbon compounds. Although some combustion plume samples deviated in GDCR from theoretical, the very low GDCR values associated with plumes from CO₂ leaks provided confidence that this technology holds promise in providing a tool for the early detection of CO₂ leaks from CCS sites. Implications: This work contributes to the development of a cost-effective technology for the early detection of leaks from sites where CO₂ has been injected into the subsurface to enhance oil recovery or to permanently store the gas as a strategy for mitigating climate change. Such technology will be important in building public confidence regarding the safety and security of carbon capture and storage sites.     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

Psychological capital development: toward a micro‐intervention

After first providing the meaning of psychological capital (PsyCap), we present a micro‐intervention to develop it. Drawn from hope, optimism, efficacy, and resiliency development, this PsyCap Intervention (PCI) is shown to have preliminary support for not only increasing participants' PsyCap, but also financial impact and high return on investment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The kin recognition system of carpenter ants (Camponotus spp.)

Summary The phenotypic cues that provide for rejection of non-nestmates by workers of the ant genus Camponotus could derive from any or all of four sources: (1) environmental odors; (2) the individual's own genetically-determined recognition pheromones or discriminators; (3) a gestalt or mixture of transferable discriminators, produced by each nestmate and absorbed by all; and/or (4) the discriminators of the queen applied to all nestmates. To test these hypotheses, four series of small experimental colonies were created: inter- and intraspecific mixed colonies containing queens, queenless worker groups, and pairs of worker groups between which a single queen was repeatedly switched. Intraspecific mixed colonies and queenless groups were further divided into groups receiving different diets. Aggression of workers in 165 experimental colonies was assayed in a total of 4064 neutral arena tests. Workers adopted into inter- and intraspecific mixed colonies with queens were highly aggressive to unfamiliar kin from pure colonies, independent of diet and of the proportion of different kin groups in the colony. However, queenless workers exhibited less aggression to unfamiliar kin than to non-kin, demonstrating the existence of worker discriminators. Diet differences slightly enhanced aggression among unfamiliar queenless kin. Non-kin sharing a switched queen were as unaggressive to one another as were sisters. The ability to adopt queenless workers between colonies gradually declined over 1–2 wks following their emergence from pupae. We propose a hierarchy of importance of cue sources in determining nestmate discrimination in small Camponotus colonies: Queen discriminators> worker discriminators>environmental cues. A flow-diagram model of social insect kin recognition, based on the phenotype matching concept of Holmes and Sherman (1983), is discussed.     

The biodiversity challenge: Expanded hot-spots analysis

Summary This paper aims to throw light on the mass extinction that is overtaking Earth's species. Using an analytic methodology developed for an earlier partial assessment, it focuses on a series of hot-spot areas, these being areas that (a) feature exceptional concentrations of species with high levels of endemism, and (b) face exceptional threats of destruction. The paper identifies another eight such areas, four of them in tropical forests and four in Mediterranean-type zones. The analysis reveals that the four tropical-forest areas contain at least 2,835 endemic plant species in 18,700 km², or 1.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.013 percent of Earth's land surface; and that the four Mediterranean-type areas contain 12,720 endemic plan: species in 435,700 km², or 5.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of the Earth's land surface. Taken together, these eight hot-spot areas contain 15,555 endemic plant species in 454,400 km², or 6.2 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of Earth's land surface. This is to be compared with the earlier hot-spots analysis of 10 tropical-forest areas, with 34,400 endemic plant species in 292,000 km², or 13.8 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.2 percent of Earth's land surface.Taking all 18 hot-spot areas together, we find they support 49,955 endemic plant species, or 20 percent of Earth's plant species, in 746,400 km², or 0.5 percent of Earth's land surface. This means that one fifth of Earth's plant species are confined to half of one percent of the Earth's land surface — and they occur in habitats that are mostly threatened with imminent destruction.By concentrating on these hot-spot areas where needs are greatest and where the pay-off from safeguard measures would be greatest, conservationists can engage in a more systematised response to the challenge of large scale impending extinctions.Dr Norman Myers is a consultant in environment and development, a member of this journal's Advisory Board, and a regular contributor to the journal. He is a Senior Fellow of World Wildlife Fund — US. This paper enlarges on an important theme developed by Dr Myers in a contribution which appeared inThe Environmentalist,8(3), 187–208. The research for this paper has been supported by the MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, USA.