Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico (1985)

The 1985 Mexican earthquake ranks foremost amongst the major earthquake disasters of the twentieth century. One of the few positive aspects of the disaster is that it provided massive quantities of data that would otherwise have been unobtainable. Every opportunity should be taken to incorporate the findings from these data in earthquake hazard assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a succinct summary of some of the more important lessons from Mexico. It stems from detailed field investigations, and subsequent analyses, conducted by the author on the behalf of reinsurance companies.     

Emergency centers in Israel: A small community organizes to cope with war related crises*

This paper focuses on community-wide emergencies caused by war-related events in Lebanon at the beginning of June 1982. Mobilization for the "Peace for Galilee" campaign began on Friday, 4th June. Overnight, families were disrupted, husbands and sons were in danger, and within 24 hours there were notifications of casualities and deaths. Families in crisis became a widespread phenomenon. In Herzlia, as in many other communities, a new service - the Emergency Center - emerged under the auspices of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and the Municipality. The authors describe this process of getting organized, the populations served, how the Center was staffed, the role of citizen volunteers, and the types of interventions used to help vulnerable families as well as soldiers home on leave. Stress is placed on the unique type of short-term co-operation achieved between social workers of the local Department of Social Welfare, the staff of the Department of Community Services (especially its Volunteer Bureau), the local liason officer of the Israel Defence Force, the municipal government, and public-spirited volunteers. Mention is made of conditions which made possible the activation of such a service within hours, of the Center's capacity to serve all segments of the population, and of how it was deactivated within a few weeks when the emergency ended. On the basis of lessons learned from this experience, the paper ends with a number of specific recommendations. The authors hope that such innovative forms of crisis-intervention will become part of the helping technology widely available at the community level in future years.     

How Many Species Are There in Brazil?

Abstract:  We produced estimates of the total number of species currently known and the total numbers predicted to occur in Brazil. Lists of species recorded in Brazil were obtained from specialists and the literature. For taxa lacking information on total known species, we produced estimates based on bootstrap resampling from a set of 87 taxa with checklists for Brazil and the world. The estimated proportion of Brazilian species was 9.5% of the world total (95% CI, 8.5 to 11.5%). From this we estimated a known Brazilian biota of 170,000 to 210,000 species. We used a similar procedure to estimate Brazil's total biota—known plus undiscovered. Based on 17 relatively well-known taxa, the average Brazilian share in the world's biota was estimated at 13.1% (CI 10.0 to 17.6%). Accordingly we estimated the country's total biota at 1.8 million species (CI 1.4 to 2.4 million). Given that the Neotropics is the least-studied major region of the world, these figures are still likely to be underestimates and hence may be taken as a lower bound of the actual proportion of the world's species that occur in Brazil. Scientists, policy makers, and citizens will find these numbers useful in appreciating the magnitude of the tasks involved in surveying, describing, and conserving the country's biota. The numbers also bring proposals and priorities into a more realistic perspective.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.     

Lack of population subdivision among the minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) from Icelandic and Norwegian waters based on mitochondrial DNA sequences

The minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) is subject to commercial whaling, but stock identification and assessment are still uncertain. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences were determined to examine the population structure of minke whales from the central and northeastern parts of the North Atlantic, as well as the Antarctic regions IV and V. The analyses include 345 nucleotide positions of the control region of 110 individuals, and 250 nucleotide positions of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene for a representative selection of North Atlantic minke whales. Maximum parsimony analyses and sequence divergence calculations did not reveal any genetic differentiation between individuals from the central and northeastern parts of the North Atlantic. These results do not support the International Whaling Commission's separation of minke whales in this area into different management units, and they are in conflict with previously reported results from allozyme analyses. Comparison of minke whale control region sequences showed that the sequence diversity of North Atlantic minke whales is substantially lower (0.0065) than that of Antarctic minke whales (0.0166), and clearly demonstrated that individuals from these two areas represent genetically distinct populations.