Prediction and uncertainty source analysis of the spatial and temporal disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic in a complex ecosystem

Vehicle use during military training activities results in soil disturbance and vegetation loss. The capacity of lands to sustain training is a function of the sensitivity of lands to vehicle use and the pattern of land use. The sensitivity of land to vehicle use has been extensively studied. Less well understood are the spatial patterns of vehicle disturbance. Since disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic moving through complex landscapes varies spatially, a spatially explicit nonlinear regression model (disturbance model) was used to predict the pattern of vehicle disturbance across a training facility. An uncertainty analysis of the model predictions assessed the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty.For the most part, this analysis showed that mapping and modeling process errors contributed more than 95% of the total uncertainty of predicted disturbance, while satellite imagery error contributed less than 5% of the uncertainty. When the total uncertainty was larger than a threshold, modeling error contributed 60% to 90% of the prediction uncertainty. Otherwise, mapping error contributed about 10% to 50% of the total uncertainty. These uncertainty sources were further partitioned spatially based on other sources of uncertainties associated with vehicle moment, landscape characterization, satellite imagery, etc.     

Nanotechnology for site remediation

As a remediation tool, nanotechnology holds promise for cleaning up hazardous waste sites cost‐effectively and addressing challenging site conditions, such as the presence of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). Some nanoparticles, such as nanoscale zero‐valent iron (nZVI) are already in use in full‐scale projects with encouraging success. Ongoing research at the bench and pilot scale is investigating particles such as self‐assembled monolayers on mesoporous supports (SAMMS™), dendrimers, carbon nanotubes, and metalloporphyrinogens to determine how to apply their unique chemical and physical properties for full‐scale remediation. There are many unanswered questions regarding nanotechnology. Further research is needed to understand the fate and transport of free nanoparticles in the environment, whether they are persistent, and whether they have toxicological effects on biological systems. In October 2008, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) prepared a fact sheet entitled “Nanotechnology for Site Remediation,” and an accompanying list of contaminated sites where nanotechnology has been tested. The fact sheet contains information that may assist site project managers in understanding the potential applications of this group of technologies. This article provides a synopsis of the US EPA fact sheet, available at http://clu‐in.org/542F08009 , and includes background information on nanotechnology; its use in site remediation; issues related to fate, transport, and toxicity; and a discussion of performance and cost data for field tests. The site list is available at http://clu‐in.org/products/nanozvi . © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Retention of PCDDS and PCDFS in the liver of the rat and hamster after oral administration of a municipal incinerator fly ash extract

A single dose of an extract from 16 and 5 grams fly ash was administered orally to male rats and hamsters. In the rat 1,2,3,7,8‐PnCDD had the highest retention (41%) in the liver. The congener with the highest retention in the liver of the hamster was 2,3,4,7,8‐PnCDF (70.9%). In two oral multiple dose experiments with rats, highest liver retentions were found for 1,2,3,7,8‐PnCDD (51.7%) and 1,2,3,6,7,8‐HxCDD (59.8%). With the exception of 2,3,4,6,7‐PnCDF, all PCDDs and PCDFs retained in the liver of rat and hamster had a 2,3,7,8 chlorine substitution pattern. In both types of experiments with rats the retention of 2,3,7,8‐TCDF in the liver was very low, 1.1–2.8% of the total dose. In the liver of the hamster retention of 2,3,7,8‐TCDF was almost equal to that of 2,3,7,8‐TCDD, indicating that the hamster is probably metabolizing 2,3,7,8‐TCDF Jess efficiently than the rat. In all experiments 1,2,3,7,8‐PnCDD and 2,3,4,7,8‐PnCDF were retained in the liver more efficiently than 2,3,7,8‐TCDD. Based on first order pharmacokinetic calculations, it was found that the earlier published k_e value of 0.55 for 2,3,7,8‐TCDF in the liver of the rat was also applicable. Using the same calculations for 2,3,7,8‐TCDD (k_e = 0.029) a 30% difference was found between calculated and actual measurements, but calculated results were still within the 95% confidence limits of the actual measurements.     

Predator diversity and identity drive interaction strength and trophic cascades in a food web

Declining predator diversity may drastically affect the biomass and productivity of herbivores and plants. Understanding how changes in predator diversity can propagate through food webs to alter ecosystem function is one of the most challenging ecological research topics today. We studied the effects of predator removal in a simple natural food web in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California (USA). By excluding the predators of the third trophic level of a food web in a full-factorial design, we monitored cascading effects of varying predator diversity and composition on the herbivorous beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis and the willow Salix orestera, which compose the first and second trophic levels of the food web. Decreasing predator diversity increased herbivore biomass and survivorship, and consequently increased the amount of plant biomass consumed via a trophic cascade. Despite this simple linear mean effect of diversity on the strength of the trophic cascade, we found additivity, compensation, and interference in the effects of multiple predators on herbivores and plants. Herbivore survivorship and predator-prey interaction strengths varied with predator diversity, predator identity, and the identity of coexisting predators. Additive effects of predators on herbivores and plants may have been driven by temporal niche separation, whereas compensatory effects and interference occurred among predators with a similar phenology. Together, these results suggest that while the general trends of diversity effects may appear linear and additive, other information about species identity was required to predict the effects of removing individual predators. In a community that is not temporally well-mixed, predator traits such as phenology may help predict impacts of species loss on other species. Information about predator natural history and food web structure may help explain variation in predator diversity effects on trophic cascades and ecosystem function.     

Audiogram, body mass, and basilar papilla length: correlations in birds and predictions for extinct archosaurs

The inner ear in the group of archosaurs (birds, crocodilians, and extinct dinosaurs) shows a high degree of structural similarity, enabling predictions of their function in extinct species based on relationships among similar variables in living birds. Behavioral audiograms and morphological data on the length of the auditory sensory epithelium (the basilar papilla) are available for many avian species. By bringing different data sets together, we show that body mass and the size of the basilar papilla are significantly correlated, and the most sensitive frequency in a given species is inversely related to the body mass and the length of the basilar papilla. We also demonstrate that the frequency of best hearing is correlated with the high-frequency limit of hearing. Small species with a short basilar papilla hear higher frequencies compared with larger species with a longer basilar papilla. Based on the regression analysis of two significant correlations in living archosaurs (best audiogram frequency vs body mass and best audiogram frequency vs papillar length), we suggest that hearing in large dinosaurs was restricted to low frequencies with a high-frequency limit below 3 kHz. Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and accessible for authorised users.     

Characterization of model error in a simulation of fine particulate matter exposure distributions of the working age population in Helsinki, Finland

Exposure models are needed for comparison of scenarios resulting from alternative policy options. The reliability of models used for such purposes should be quantified by comparing model outputs in a real situation with the corresponding observed exposures. Measurement errors affect the observations, but if the distribution of these errors for single observations is known, the bias caused for the population statistics can be corrected. The current paper does this and calculates model errors for a probabilistic simulation of 48-hr fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures. Direct and nested microenvironment-based models are compared. The direct model requires knowledge on the distribution of the indoor concentrations, whereas the nested model calculates indoor concentrations from ambient levels, using infiltration factors and indoor sources. The model error in the mean exposure level was <0.5 microg m(-3) for both models. Relative errors in the estimated population mean were +1% and -5% for the direct and nested models, respectively. Relative errors in the estimated SD were -9% and -23%, respectively. The magnitude of these errors and the errors calculated for population percentiles indicate that the model errors would not drive general conclusions derived from these models, supporting the use of the models as a tool for evaluation of potential exposure reductions in alternative policy scenarios.