Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management – Part A: Methodology

In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada.     

IMPROVED RIVER BASIN UTILIZATION THROUGH SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Theoretical and practical results are summarized for a study to determine optimal water resource allocation in a proposed water conservancy district. The area of this district, which covers several river basins, contains a large number of existing and proposed facilities such as reservoirs and diversions. The operation of all of these facilities was to be determined along with the sizing of the proposed facilities in order to optimize given objective functions. Related efforts in optimal river basin utilization were surveyed, and linear programming was selected as an expedient optimization technique. The problem is formulated by identifying time stages which together constitute a repetitive cycle such as a year. With these stages, it is possible to associate operational and capacity variables with network components, which are branches and nodes. Objective functions are assembled for the component variables. Constraint equations are written in terms of the variables to reflect network nodal continuity, capacity restrictions, and adjudications such as water rights. A numerical example is considered in which the existing and proposed facilities are aggregated to produce a small, tractable number of facilities. This paper examines the example results and suggests future improvements for models of this type.     

Trail erosion patterns in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

All the maintained trails in Great Smoky Mountains National Park were surveyed for width, depth, and a variety of types of erosion. Trail erosion is related to a number of environmental variables, including vegetation type, elevation, trail slope, and section of the park. Open grass balds and spruce-fir forest are the most erosion-sensitive plant communities, and the xeric oak and pine types are the least sensitive. Trails in virgin or mature forest tend to be in poorer condition than those in successional areas. The most important physical factor is the slope of the trail.Trails in the Tennessee district are in slightly poorer condition, on the average, than those in the North Carolina district, but the Appalachian Trail is more eroded than either. A poor section of the park may have ten times the erosion of a good section. On an allpark basis, water erosion is the most important problem, with 15% of the trail surface affected.A comparison of visitation patterns with trail condition indicates that redistribution of use would help to mitigate some erosion problems. Because trail condition is correlated to physical environmental factors, however, some sites will require intensive maintenance, even if visitation is low.The data from this survey have already been used in environmental analysis of proposed developments within the park and can be applied to long-range planning for the park trail system as a whole.     

CASE STUDIES OF AGRICULTURAL WATER CONSERVATION1

Farmers from four irrigation districts in Texas and California were questioned about water conservation practices they are now using, those they plan to adopt, and potential incentives that government might offer to induce still further water conservation on their part. While responses differed somewhat from place to place and among individual farmers, the general results were: a) farmers reported that “water conservation” is not new to them, it is something they practice regularly; b) recent innovations such as laser controlled land leveling devices have permitted some substantial water use reductions in recent years; and c) even greater incentive mechanisms that government could provide and that farmers would accept as useful incentives, such as long term low interest loans for water saving equipment, would probably not be able to reduce water use in agriculture much further than 15 percent below current levels. It is recommended nonetheless that Federal agencies and local water districts and individuals should nonetheless pursue water conservation training and education programs, demonstrations of conjunctive use and water banking opportunities for water saving, and increased loan programs for installation of water saving equipment.     

Determining residential firewood consumption

Household firewood use has become increasingly popular in the United States over the past few years. Significant problems remain in estimating firewood consumption. Methods of determining the amount of wood consumed vary from state to state. Units used for measuring firewood vary, but the cord remains the researcher's favorite. Factors used for converting other units, such as pickup truck loads to cords also vary. People who do not use firewood are less likely to respond to mailed surveys, resulting in potential overestimates of statewide consumption. This paper identifies some problems associated with estimating household firewood consumption and recommends methods of dealing with them.     

Vegetation changes associated with barrier-dune construction on the outer banks of North Carolina

Manmade dunes are used to stabilize the barrier islands of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States so that they are more amenable to development. Although this strategy has stabilized extensive sections of the barrier-island substrate, it has also caused significant ecological changes. The rate and pattern of the resulting vegetation changes along the Outer Banks of North Carolina were determined using sequential aerial photography. Successional trends have been altered in favor of more stable woody communities.     

PROCEDURES FOR THE EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method of analyzing the nonquantifiable parameters which should be considered in the evaluation of engineering alternatives. The nonquantifiable parameters can include environmental impact, feasibility of implementation, and performance. The method considers rating all the alternatives on the basis of a set of criteria which reflect these parameters. A procedure is discussed for obtaining review and guidance in the evaluation of engineering alternatives from the local elected officials or governing bodies and for obtaining the views and desires of the local communities. This is achieved through the formation of project review committees and an evaluation procedure which allows for the technical rating of alternatives by the engineer and the weighing of the evaluation criteria by the political and social groups. With the growing environmental concern and the high cost of engineering projects, the involvement of the public during the evaluation of engineering projects is becoming increasingly important to the final success of the project.     

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF USING ARMAX MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters.