湖北省近期土地利用变化的遥感分析

土地利用，覆盖变化研究是全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一。采用遥感、GIS一体化技术．利用1989～1990年和1999～2000年获取的陆地资源卫星图像，建立了湖北省近10年来两个不同时期的同比例尺土地利用动态变化数据库，并对变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，耕地减少了0．68％，林地减少了0．18％，各类建设用地总计增加了。7．92％．水域面积增加的幅度为3．01％。土地利用与土地覆盖变化的转型主要发生于上述4类之中．尤其是耕地与水域相互之间的转变比较频繁。动态度计算表明，土地利用变化最快的区域均处于大中城市及其周边地区；江汉平原、鄂东的大部分地区及鄂西的宜昌．土地利用变化较快；鄂西山区绝大部分、大别山区部分县及鄂东南幕阜山区的通山县，土地利用变化不大。     

基于探索性数据分析的汉丰湖富营养化驱动因子研究

为了探究汉丰湖富营养化驱动因子和营养状况,基于2014年水质监测数据,应用探索性数据分析方法初步研究了汉丰湖水动力条件与环境因子的相关性、水质主成分、相关环境因子熵权和营养健康指数。回归分析结果表明：水位与透明度呈正相关,流量与DO呈负相关,与流速呈负相关的因子为Chla、CODMn、NH+4-N和DTP;主成分分析提取的3个主成分分别反映了营养盐、有机污染以及藻类信息;DO、TN和TP的熵权表明汉丰湖水体的富营养状况受制于耗氧有机污染和氮、磷营养盐;营养健康指数S1>S3>S6（湖心）>S7（湖尾）>S5（湖首）>S4>S2。汉丰湖水体营养状况介于中营养到轻富营养,其中南河营养状态较高,湖心营养程度高于湖首和湖尾。减少有机污染物、营养盐的输入和改善局部水域的水动力条件可抑制藻类生长,有利于防治富营养化。 关键词： 探索性数据分析;汉丰湖;富营养化;驱动因子;水动力条件;主成分;熵权;营养健康指数     

汉江流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应模拟研究

针对流域LUCC驱动因子众多、驱动因子与土地利用/覆被变化之间存在复杂的非线性动态关系的特点,以汉江上游流域LUCC模拟为例,构建基于人工神经网络（ANN）与元胞自动机（CA）的模拟土地利用/覆被变化的CA ANN耦合模型,并应用该模型预测汉江上游流域2020s年代的LUCC变化情景。结果表明：2020s汉江黄家港站上游流域水田、旱地、灌木林与建设用地面积均有不同程度的增加,其中建设用地增幅最大,与区域交通和城市化的迅猛发展趋势相符;除建设用地增幅变化较大之外,1980s～2000s与2000s～2020s两个时期其余土地利用/覆盖类型的面积变化率都比较相近,表明CA ANN耦合模型能够刻画土地利用/覆盖类型的转换规律,在流域土地利用/覆被变化的复杂非线性动态演变情景的模拟预测方面是可行的。在此基础上,应用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟汉江上游流域水文过程。研究结果表明：在1980s年代、2000s年代及预测的2020s年代LUCC情景下,汉江上游流域年平均径流量呈增加趋势,LUCC对径流量年内影响较汛期显著,多年平均蒸散发量呈增加趋势     

三峡库区重庆段土壤保持服务时空分布格局研究

土壤保持是生态系统服务与功能的重要组成,在防止土壤侵蚀、减少径流泥沙与农业面源污染等方面具有至关重要的作用。以对国家生态安全具有重要作用的土壤保持生态功能区——三峡库区重庆段为研究区域,研究得到了2000~2013年时间序列区域土壤保持服务"流量"结果,结果表明:(1)三峡库区重庆段多年平均土壤保持量为604.39 t/hm~2·a,沿长江干流自西向东逐渐增强,区域差异显著;(2)三峡库区的土壤保持服务存在明显的垂直分异特征,随着高程的增加,以300 m与900 m为节点,出现递减-递增-递减的分段规律,与人类活动存在明显的相关关系;(3)增加森林覆被面积是改善区域土壤保持、减少水土流失的重要举措。同时,在三峡库区开展坡改梯工程,减少坡耕地的数量能够有效控制区域水土流失;     

未来30a凉山州水稻盛夏低温危害风险分析

根据(BCC)气候系统模式第五阶段试验计划(CMIP5-RCP6.0)预测的2006~2050年各格点逐日平均温度,通过订正反演出2021~2050年凉山州各站点逐日平均温度,结合凉山州不同区域水稻抽穗杨花期低温指标,统计了各站水稻盛夏低温频次、水稻安全播种期、安全齐穗期以及安全生长季差,构建了水稻盛夏低温危害风险指数I=exp(Id+ip-2),并以此进行低温危害风险的区域划分,结果表明:(1)凉山州水稻盛夏低温频次为0.1~3.0次/a,在区域和年际之间差异很大;(2)与近30a比较,凉山州水稻安全播种期普遍提前10 d左右,提前最多的达20 d以上。安全齐穗期只有少数站点推迟,大多数站点都有提前的趋势;(3)海拔1 500 m以下为无风险区,1 500~2 000 m的区域为低风险区,2 000~2 500 m为中风险区,2 500~2 600 m为高风险区,分区结果与实际情况相符,为凉山州未来水稻生产布局、应对气候变化的影响提供科学依据。     

近60a长三角地区极端高温事件变化特征及其对城市化的响应

基于长三角地区1951~2014年56个国家级气象站点逐日气温记录资料,通过计算极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx,极端最低温TNn,高温日数Htd和低温日数Ltd),利用GIS空间分析技术和Mann-Kendall时间趋势分析方法分析了长三角地区近60 a极端高温事件的空间分异特征和时间变化趋势,并探讨了城市化发展对区域极端高温事件时空变异的影响。结果表明:(1)长三角地区极端高温事件指标均表现为一定的上升趋势,极端低温指标(TNn和Ltd)线性变化趋势比极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)更为显著,变化趋势最显著的地区集中在经济和城市化水平较高的城市及周边地区(如上海、杭州等)。(2)极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)多年平均总体表现为南高北低,西高东低的趋势,而极端低温指标中TNn多年平均为由中部向南北两侧降低,Ltd多年平均呈现自中部向南北南侧增多的趋势。(3)从1990~2000到2000~2010年,城市化对极端高温事件的影响增强,快速城市化对北部城市极端高温事件的影响高于南部城市。     

近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

Environmental and socioeconomic assessment of impacts by mining activities—a case study in the Certej River catchment,Western Carpathians,Romania

Background, aim and scope

In the region of the Apuseni Mountains, part of the Western Carpathians in Romania, metal mining activities have a long-standing tradition. These mining industries created a clearly beneficial economic development in the region. But their activities also caused impairments to the environment, such as acid mine drainage (AMD) resulting in long-lasting heavy metal pollution of waters and sediments. The study, established in the context of the ESTROM programme, investigated the impact of metal mining activities both from environmental and socioeconomic perspectives and tried to incorporate the results of the two approaches into an integrated proposition for mitigation of mining-related issues.

Study site

The small Certej catchment, situated in the Southern Apuseni Mountains, covers an area of 78 km². About 4,500 inhabitants are living in the basin, in which metal mining was the main economic sector. An open pit and several abandoned underground mines are producing heavy metal-loaded acidic water that is discharged untreated into the main river. The solid wastes of mineral processing plants were deposited in several dumps and tailings impoundment embodying the acidic water-producing mineral pyrite.

Methods

The natural science team collected samples from surface waters, drinking water from dug wells and from groundwater. Filtered and total heavy metals, both after enrichment, and major cations were analysed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Major anions in waters, measured by ion chromatography, alkalinity and acidity were determined by titration. Solid samples were taken from river sediments and from the largest tailings dam. The latter were characterised by X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction. Heavy metals in sediments were analysed after digestion. Simultaneously, the socioeconomic team performed a household survey to evaluate the perception of people related to the river and drinking water pollution by way of a logistic regression analysis.

Results and discussion

The inputs of acid mine waters drastically increased filtered heavy metal concentrations in the Certej River, e.g. Zn up to 130 mg L⁻¹, Fe 100 mg L⁻¹, Cu 2.9 mg L⁻¹, Cd 1.4 mgL⁻¹ as well as those of SO₄ up to 2.2 g L⁻¹. In addition, river water became acidic with pH values of pH 3. Concentrations of pollutant decreased slightly downstream due to dilution by waters from tributaries. Metal concentrations measured at headwater stations reflect background values. They fell in the range of the environmental quality standards proposed in the EU Water Framework Directive for dissolved heavy metals. The outflow of the large tailing impoundment and the groundwater downstream from two tailings dams exhibited the first sign of AMD, but they still had alkalinity.

Most dug wells analysed delivered a drinking water that exhibited no sign of AMD pollution, although these wells were a distance of 7 to 25 m from the contaminated river. It seems that the Certej River does not infiltrate significantly into the groundwater.

Pyrite was identified as the main sulphide mineral in the tailings dam that produces acidity and with calcite representing the AMD-neutralising mineral. The acid–base accounting proved that the potential acid-neutralising capacity in the solid phases would not be sufficient to prevent the production of acidic water in the future. Therefore, the open pits and mine waste deposits have to be seen as the sources for AMD at the present time, with a high long-term potential to produce even more AMD in the future.

The socioeconomic study showed that mining provided the major source of income. Over 45% of the households were partly or completely reliant on financial compensations as a result of mine closure. Unemployment was considered by the majority of the interviewed persons as the main cause of social problems in the area. The estimation of the explanatory factors by the logistic regression analysis revealed that education, household income, pollution conditions during the last years and familiarity with environmental problems were the main predictors influencing peoples’ opinion concerning whether the main river is strongly polluted. This model enabled one to predict correctly 77% of the observations reported. For the drinking water quality model, three predictors were relevant and they explained 66% of the observations.

Conclusions

Coupling the findings from the natural science and socioeconomic approaches, we may conclude that the impact of mining on the Certej River water is high, while drinking water in wells is not significantly affected. The perceptions of the respondents to pollution were to a large extent consistent with the measured results.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of the study can be used by various stakeholders, mainly the mining company and local municipalities, in order to integrate them in their post-mining measures, thereby making them aware of the potential long-term impact of mining on the environment and on human health as well as on the local economy.

     

Protected Area Safeguard Tree and Shrub Communities from Degradation and Invasion: A Case Study in Eastern Madagascar

Despite their prevalence in both developed and developing countries, there have been surprisingly few field assessments of the ecological effectiveness of protected areas. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a key protected area in eastern Madagascar, Ranomafana National Park (RNP). We established paired 100 × 4-m vegetation transects (400 m²) within RNP and in remnant forests in the park’s peripheral zone. In each 400-m² plot, all woody stems >1.5 cm in diameter at breast height were measured and identified to species. All species were also identified as native or non-native. We identified utilitarian species within all transects and they were sorted into use category. We calculated plot-level taxonomic biodiversity and functional diversity of utilitarian species; the latter was calculated by clustering the multivariate distances between species based on their utilitarian traits, and all metrics were tested using paired t-tests. Our results showed that there was significantly higher biodiversity inside RNP than in remnant forests and this pattern was consistent across all diversity metrics examined. Forests not located within the park’s boundary had significantly higher non-native species than within RNP. There was no statistically significant difference in functional diversity of utilitarian species inside RNP vs. remnant forests; however, the overall trend was toward higher diversity inside park boundaries. These findings suggested that RNP has been effective at maintaining taxonomic diversity relative to surrounding unprotected areas and restricting the spread of non-native plants. The results also suggested that low functional redundancy of forests outside of RNP might be of concern, because residents in surrounding villages may have few other substitutes for the services provided by species that are of critical importance to their livelihoods. This study highlights the challenges of trying to reconcile biodiversity conservation with human use of natural resources in economically poor, remote areas.     

固相萃取-高效液相色谱法测定地表水中的溴氰菊酯

建立了固相萃取-高效液相色谱-二极管阵列扫描测定地表水中溴氰菊酯的方法。溴氰菊酯经C18小柱富集,用6．0mL二氯甲影丙酮（1：1,v／v）洗脱,氮吹转换溶剂为甲醇并定容至1mL后由高效液相色谱仪进行分析,检测波长为270hm,通过保留时间与特征紫外吸收图谱定性,外标法定量。方法检出限1．0ug／L;线性范围1．0～97．0ug,／L,／相关系数0．9999;相对标准偏差7．7％-17．5％（n=6）;回收率在90．6％～111．9％。方法简单,快速,经济环保。