A FLOOD DAMAGE MODEL FOR FLOOD PLAIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic and economic information must be integrated in flood plain management. This study describes an integrated approach which includes consideration of the hydrologic, hydrodynamic, physical, and economic components of the total system. On the basis of these components, a theoretical model is proposed which provides a rational procedure for estimating flood damages from projections of economic development within an area. The utility of the model is demonstrated by applying it to a flood-prone region in Southern Quebec, Canada.     

Accounting for geophysical information in geostatistical characterization of unexploded ordnance (UXO) sites

Efficient and reliable unexploded ordnance (UXO) site characterization is needed for decisions regarding future land use. There are several types of data available at UXO sites and geophysical signal maps are one of the most valuable sources of information. Incorporation of such information into site characterization requires a flexible and reliable methodology. Geostatistics allows one to account for exhaustive secondary information (i.e.,, known at every location within the field) in many different ways. Kriging and logistic regression were combined to map the probability of occurrence of at least one geophysical anomaly of interest, such as UXO, from a limited number of indicator data. Logistic regression is used to derive the trend from a geophysical signal map, and kriged residuals are added to the trend to estimate the probabilities of the presence of UXO at unsampled locations (simple kriging with varying local means or SKlm). Each location is identified for further remedial action if the estimated probability is greater than a given threshold. The technique is illustrated using a hypothetical UXO site generated by a UXO simulator, and a corresponding geophysical signal map. Indicator data are collected along two transects located within the site. Classification performances are then assessed by computing proportions of correct classification, false positive, false negative, and Kappa statistics. Two common approaches, one of which does not take any secondary information into account (ordinary indicator kriging) and a variant of common cokriging (collocated cokriging), were used for comparison purposes. Results indicate that accounting for exhaustive secondary information improves the overall characterization of UXO sites if an appropriate methodology, SKlm in this case, is used.     

Sexual selection and reproductive careers in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx)

In sexually dimorphic, polygynous species, where males provide little parental care and competition between males for access to fertile females is high, sexual selection theory predicts sex differences in age-specific reproductive output and mortality profiles, and greater variance in lifetime reproductive success in males than in females. We examined age-specific reproductive output, mortality patterns and the extent and causes of variation in reproductive success for a semi-free-ranging colony of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx, Cercopithecidae) in Franceville, Gabon, using long-term (20 year) demographic records and microsatellite parentage analysis. Although differences in the demography and feeding ecology of this closed, provisioned colony, in comparison with wild mandrills, limit interpretation of our results, sex differences in reproductive output and mortality showed the patterns predicted by sexual selection theory. Mortality was higher in males than in females after sexual maturity, and lifespan was significantly shorter in males (mean 14 year) than in females (>22 year). Age at first reproduction was significantly earlier in females (mean 4.2 year) than in males (11.6 year), and male reproductive output declined earlier. All females of breeding age produced offspring; while only 17 of 53 sexually mature males (32%) sired. Males sired a maximum of 41 offspring, versus 17 in females, and variance in male reproductive output was significantly greater than in females at all ages. The most important influence on variation in lifetime reproductive output in both sexes was joint variation between length of the breeding period and reproductive rate, due to lower reproductive rates in younger animals. Finally, social rank significantly influenced reproductive output in both sexes: high-ranking females began their reproductive careers earlier and had a higher subsequent reproductive rate than low-ranking females, while males that achieved top rank during their career sired far more offspring than males that did not.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Disaster Management in the Caribbean

This paper identifies the main trends in approaches to disaster management in the Caribbean at both regional and national levels over the past 20 years. It highlights the main reasons why and how the region has moved from an ad hoc response to an organised approach. Finally, it suggests ways in which future regional and national disaster management could be improved.     

Driving and alternatives: older drivers in Michigan

Method: A statewide telephone survey of Michigan drivers and former drivers aged 65 and older collected information on transportation mode choices, experience with alternatives to driving, and whether drivers planned for when they could no longer drive. Results: Results showed that most older adult households owned at least one automobile, and that the automobile was the primary mode of transportation. Most former drivers obtained rides from relatives and friends. Use of public transportation was low, and some seniors were not aware of available public transportation services. Older drivers did not plan for driving cessation. Over half the drivers who perceived a likelihood of driving problems within 5 years expected to keep driving beyond 5 years. Impact on industry: Because of their lifelong reliance on the automobile, their desire to drive themselves, and their lack of experience with public transportation, efforts to enhance the mobility of older people should consider this background while alternatives to the personal automobile are developed.     

Collision and violation involvement of drivers who use cellular telephones

The study sample consisted of 3,869 drivers, split approximately 50/50 between observed cell phone users and those observed not using cell phones (labeled "nonusers"). Cell phone use was determined by a snapshot observation made on city streets. The sample represented 54% of those originally observed, for whom a match was obtained for both vehicle license plate and for gender and estimated age group of the observed driver and that of the driver named in the vehicle policy. Data were obtained from records of insurance claims, police-reported collisions and violations, following a strict protocol to protect individual privacy. The dependent measures were at-fault crash claims and "inattention" violations. A logistic regression model controlled for age, gender, exposure (represented by not-at-fault crash claims), alcohol-related offenses, and aggressive driving offenses. The study also involved a comparison of the contributing factors and collision configurations of police-reported collisions involving the users and "nonusers" in the sample. Drivers observed using cell phones had a higher risk of an at-fault crash than did the "nonusers," although the difference was not significant for males. There was no apparent effect on "inattention" violations. The cell phone users also had a higher proportion of rear-end collisions. The violation pattern of cell phone users suggests that they are, in general, riskier drivers. These differences likely reflect lifestyle, attitude and personality factors. It is essential to control for these factors in assessing the direct risk attributable to cellular telephone use.     

Associations of Forest Cover,Fragment Area,and Connectivity with Neotropical Understory Bird Species Richness and Abundance

Theoretical and empirical studies demonstrate that the total amount of forest and the size and connectivity of fragments have nonlinear effects on species survival. We tested how habitat amount and configuration affect understory bird species richness and abundance. We used mist nets (almost 34,000 net hours) to sample birds in 53 Atlantic Forest fragments in southeastern Brazil. Fragments were distributed among 3 10,800‐ha landscapes. The remaining forest in these landscapes was below (10% forest cover), similar to (30%), and above (50%) the theoretical fragmentation threshold (approximately 30%) below which the effects of fragmentation should be intensified. Species‐richness estimates were significantly higher (F= 3715, p = 0.00) where 50% of the forest remained, which suggests a species occurrence threshold of 30–50% forest, which is higher than usually occurs (<30%). Relations between forest cover and species richness differed depending on species sensitivity to forest conversion and fragmentation. For less sensitive species, species richness decreased as forest cover increased, whereas for highly sensitive species the opposite occurred. For sensitive species, species richness and the amount of forest cover were positively related, particularly when forest cover was 30–50%. Fragment size and connectivity were related to species richness and abundance in all landscapes, not just below the 30% threshold. Where 10% of the forest remained, fragment size was more related to species richness and abundance than connectivity. However, the relation between connectivity and species richness and abundance was stronger where 30% of the landscape was forested. Where 50% of the landscape was forested, fragment size and connectivity were both related to species richness and abundance. Our results demonstrated a rapid loss of species at relatively high levels of forest cover (30–50%). Highly sensitive species were 3‐4 times more common above the 30–50% threshold than below it; however, our results do not support a unique fragmentation threshold. Asociaciones de la Cobertura Forestal, Superficie del Fragmento y Conectividad con la Riqueza y Abundancia de Aves Neotropicales de Sotobosque