Making index insurance attractive to farmers

There are several factors that influence whether people will want to participate in index insurance programs. A number of these influence their attractiveness on economic grounds, including both the size and timing of the premium and potential payouts, and the degree of risk aversion of the potential customers. Other factors make programs attractive for reasons that are not economic, but no less valid. These have to do with the trust that people have in the insurance product and the organizations involved in selling and managing it. Indeed, data from India, Africa, and South America show that these factors may be more important than the economic ones in influencing demand. Index insurance pilot projects, in order to estimate demand for alternative products, have typically involved a great deal of interaction with potential customers. It is important to recognize that such interaction is crucial not just as a research tool, but also as a means to build understanding and trust in the products. When scaling up from isolated pilots to operational programs, it is vital to recognize this trust building function by replicating participation efforts in every community. In this paper, we examine the role of field games in establishing and building trust in three important aspects of these projects for participants: trust in the insurance product, trust in the participating organizations, and trust in their own ability to make good decisions. While games have previously been used as a way to gauge interest in the product and to identify design features, we argue that these games are also valuable tools for constructing these kinds of trust.     

Rapid changes in growth,condition, size and age of small pelagic fish in the Mediterranean

Since 2007, the ecosystem of the Gulf of Lions has shifted to a different regime, characterised by a low anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) biomass and a remarkably high sprat (Sprattus sprattus) biomass. Surprisingly, the abundance and recruitment of anchovy and sardine remained high. To understand which processes (bottom-up or top-down control, etc.) could have caused this shift, we studied the changes in body condition, growth and size and age of anchovy, sardine and sprat over 1984–1985 and 1992–2012, using data from scientific surveys. The annual age structure of anchovy and sardine was estimated using Bayesian mixture models based on size frequency data with priors on the age–length relationship derived from independent otolith readings. The results indicated periods during which anchovy and sardine were in an average (1992–2004), good (2005–2007) or poor (2008–2012) overall state of condition. For sardine, the shift towards smaller fish observed during these past 4 years was explained by a combination of slower growth and the disappearance of older individuals (ages 2+). Despite the increase in biomass of sprat since 2008, indications were found that sprat was also smaller than in the past. As growth and condition decreased and overexploitation has not been documented or suspected for those three species in this area, we propose that the current decline in sardine and anchovy biomass could be due to qualitative and/or quantitative modifications in the planktonic production (i.e. a bottom-up control) or mass mortalities of adults due to an epidemic disease.     

Individual trophic specialisation and niche segregation explain the contrasting population trends of two sympatric otariids

Individual specialisation is increasingly recognised to be an ecological and evolutionary process having important consequences for population dynamics of vertebrates. The South American fur seal (SAFS) and the South American sea lion (SASL) are two otariid species with similar ecology that coexist in sympatry in the Uruguayan coast. These two species have contrasting trends and widely different population sizes. The underlying reasons for these population trends, unique in their geographical ranges, remain unknown. We studied the foraging ecology of these otariid species over 2 years at the individual- and population levels using the isotopic ratios (δ¹³C–δ¹⁵N) in whiskers of both sexes. We compared the isotope ratios between species and sexes and used several metrics to characterise the degree of overlap and distinctiveness in the use of isotopic niche space at the individual- and population levels. Interspecific trophic niche overlap was minimal, thus ruling out interspecific competition as the cause for the contrasting population trends of both species. At the intraspecific level, both species had sexual segregation in their foraging areas, but each species had a large overlap in the isotopic niches between sexes. While SAFS had a wider niche and generalist individuals, SASL had the narrower niche with a higher degree of individual specialisation. Behavioural constraints during the breeding season, intraspecific competition and a major dependence on resources of the Uruguayan coastal shelf may explain why SASL had a higher trophic individual specialisation and a larger vulnerability in a heavily exploited habitat by fisheries and, by consequence, a locally declining population trend.     

Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994–2008

Wildfires have become one of the principal environmental problems in the Mediterranean basin. While fire plays an important role in most terrestrial plant ecosystems, the potential hazard that it represents for human lives and property has led to the application of fire exclusion policies that, in the long term, have caused severe damage, mainly due to the increase of fuel loadings in forested areas, in some forest systems. The lack of an easy solution to forest fire management highlights the importance of preventive tasks. The observed spatio-temporal pattern of wildfire occurrences may be idealized as a realization of some stochastic process. In particular, we may use a space–time point pattern approach for the analysis and inference process. We studied wildfires in Catalonia, a region in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, and we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns produced by those wildfire incidences by considering the influence of covariates on trends in the intensity of wildfire locations. A total of 3,166 wildfires from 1994–2008 have been recorded. We specified spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process models. Models were estimated using Bayesian inference for Gaussian Markov Random Field through the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm. The results of our analysis have provided statistical evidence that areas closer to humans have more human induced wildfires, areas farther have more naturally occurring wildfires. We believe the methods presented in this paper may contribute to the prevention and management of those wildfires which are not random in space or time.     

Volatile organic compounds of Acacia longifolia and their effects on germination and early growth of species from invaded habitats

Acacia longifolia, a highly invasive species that invades coastal ecosystems in Mediterranean areas, produces significant impacts at different scales. Abundant foliage and thick canopies create a dense atmosphere that led us to hypothesise that the release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) could play a role in the reduction of biodiversity observed in invaded areas. Therefore, we suggested that VOCs emitted by A. longifolia could exert inhibitory effects on physiological and biochemical parameters of native species. Using glass chamber bioassays, we evaluated the effect of aerial contact between VOCs from different plant parts of A. longifolia material and some native species. Volatile chemical composition was further analysed using GC-MS. Our results indicated that VOCs produced a notably reduction of seed germination. Furthermore, volatiles from leaves and flowers significantly decreased root length, shoot length and biomass for all species. Proline and malondialdehyde content did not significantly increase after contact with VOCs. Finally, chemical profile of VOCs from flowers, leaves and litter was significantly different, both qualitatively and quantitatively. As far as we know, our results constitute the first evidence of phytotoxicity induced by VOCs from A. longifolia, suggesting that flowers and leaves could influence its surrounding environment through VOCs release.     

In situ removal of arsenic from groundwater by using permeable reactive barriers of organic matter/limestone/zero-valent iron mixtures

In this study, two mixtures of municipal compost, limestone and, optionally, zero-valent iron were assessed in two column experiments on acid mine treatment. The effluent solution was systematically analysed throughout the experiment and precipitates from both columns were withdrawn for scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometry analysis and, from the column containing zero-valent iron, solid digestion and sequential extraction analysis. The results showed that waters were cleaned of arsenic, metals and acidity, but chemical and morphological analysis suggested that metal removal was not due predominantly to biogenic sulphide generation but to pH increase, i.e. metal (oxy)hydroxide and carbonate precipitation. Retained arsenic and metal removal were clearly associated to co-precipitation with and/or sorption on iron and aluminum (oxy)hydroxides. An improvement on the arsenic removal efficiency was achieved when the filling mixture contained zero-valent iron. Values of arsenic concentrations were then always below 10 μg/L.     

Size-mediated non-trophic interactions and stochastic predation drive assembly and dynamics in a seabird community

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that body size is a major life-history trait impacting on the structure and functioning of complex food webs. However, long-term analyses of size-dependent interactions within simpler network modules, for instance, competitive guilds, are scant. Here, we model the assembly dynamics of the largest breeding seabird community in the Mediterranean basin during the last 30 years. This unique data set allowed us to test, through a "natural experiment," whether body size drove the assembly and dynamics of an ecological guild growing from very low numbers after habitat protection. Although environmental stochasticity accounted for most of community variability, the population variance explained by interspecific interactions, albeit small, decreased sharply with increasing body size. Since we found a demographic gradient along a body size continuum, in which population density and stability increase with increasing body size, the numerical effects of interspecific interactions were proportionally higher on smaller species than on larger ones. Moreover, we found that the per capita interaction coefficients were larger the higher the size ratio among competing species, but only for the set of interactions in which the species exerting the effect was greater. This provides empirical evidence for long-term asymmetric interspecific competition, which ultimately prompted the local extinction of two small species during the study period. During the assembly process stochastic predation by generalist carnivores further triggered community reorganizations and global decays in population synchrony, which disrupted the pattern of interspecific interactions. These results suggest that the major patterns detected in complex food webs can hold as well for simpler sub-modules of these networks involving non-trophic interactions, and highlight the shifting ecological processes impacting on assembling vs. asymptotic communities.     

Tracking sewage derived contamination in riverine settings by analysis of synthetic surfactants

A study has been made of the presence and reactivity of the most commonly used surfactants, both anionic (linear alkylbenzene sulfonates, LAS, and alkyl ethoxysulfates, AES) and non-ionic (alcohol polyethoxylates, AEOs, and nonylphenol polyethoxylates, NPEOs), in water and surface sediments from the middle stretch of the Guadalete River in SW Spain (12 stations). Average values were between 0.1 and 3.7 mg kg(-1) in sediment, and between 0.2 and 37 μg L(-1) in water. The sorption of surfactants was dominated by hydrophobic mechanisms, so those homologues having longer alkyl chains (e.g. C(18)AEO) showed higher relative percentages and concentrations in sediments compared with water. Local and sharply higher concentrations of these compounds were observed at three sampling stations (7, 9 and 12), indicating the occurrence of wastewater discharges into the river. By analysing the distributions of different surfactant homologues and their metabolites we were able to distinguish between sewage contamination from sources discharging treated and untreated wastewaters. Upstream (stations 1-2), LAS concentrations were below 30 μg L(-1) and the composition of their degradation intermediates (sulfophenyl carboxylic acids, SPCs) (160 μg L(-1)) was dominated by short-chain homologues (C(6)-C(9)SPCs), indicating that the degradation of this surfactant is at an advanced stage. The highest concentration (487 μg L(-1)) of SPCs was detected near the effluent outlet of a sewage treatment plant (STP) (station 12). Sampling stations (7 and 9) affected by untreated wastewater discharges were the only ones showing the presence of the most reactive and biodegradable SPC isomers and homologues (e.g. C(11)SPC). Here, LAS reached the highest concentration values measured (>2 mg L(-1)), and showed a homologue distribution closer to that of commercial mixtures than LAS found at the other stations.