龙羊峡水库地震溃坝的可能性及溃坝洪灾程度的分析

讨论了龙羊峡库区将来发生大地震的可能性;分析了万一产生溃坝的灾害链问题。计算了其溃坝后洪水到达下游贵德县、康扬镇、尖扎县、循化县和兰州市的洪水最大流量、洪水起涨时间和消退时间。     

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NO_x emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m³ for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m³ for the annual average of PM_2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NO_x emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m³, deep NO_x emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m³, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China.     

Progress in quantitative research on the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and air quality

Atmospheric oxidizing capacity (AOC) is an essential driving force of troposphere chemistry and self-cleaning, but the definition of AOC and its quantitative representation remain uncertain. Driven by national demand for air pollution control in recent years, Chinese scholars have carried out studies on theories of atmospheric chemistry and have made considerable progress in AOC research. This paper will give a brief review of these developments. First, AOC indexes were established that represent apparent atmospheric oxidizing ability (AOIe) and potential atmospheric oxidizing ability (AOIp) based on aspects of macrothermodynamics and microdynamics, respectively. A closed study refined the quantitative contributions of heterogeneous chemistry to AOC in Beijing, and these AOC methods were further applied in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and key areas across the country. In addition, the detection of ground or vertical profiles for atmospheric OH·, HO₂·, NO₃· radicals and reservoir molecules can now be obtained with domestic instruments in diverse environments. Moreover, laboratory smoke chamber simulations revealed heterogeneous processes involving reactions of O₃ and NO₂, which are typical oxidants in the surface/interface atmosphere, and the evolutionary and budgetary implications of atmospheric oxidants reacting under multispecies, multiphase and multi-interface conditions were obtained. Finally, based on the GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model improved by Chinese scholars, simulations of key substances affecting atmospheric oxidation and secondary organic and inorganic aerosol formation have been optimized. Normalized numerical simulations of AOIe and AOIp were performed, and regional coordination of AOC was adjusted. An optimized plan for controlling O₃ and PM_2.5 was analyzed by scenario simulation.     

水源水库藻类功能群落演替特征及水质评价

为了解水源水库的藻类功能群落时空演替特征及水质变化,以李家河水库为例, 2018年9月～2019年6月对藻类及水质因子开展连续监测,采用功能类群划分方法对水库藻类进行了识别与分类,探讨了藻类功能群落与水质间关系,并结合WQI指数法进行水质评价.结果表明,本研究共获得藻类56种,隶属于4门28属,可划分为15个功能群类,其中优势藻类功能群落分别为B、 D、 G、 J、 L_0、Mp、 P、 W_1和X_1;李家河水库藻类结构呈现明显的季节性特征,混合期藻密度明显低于分层期,其中混合期的主要功能藻种为小球藻和小环藻,分层期的主要功能藻种为舟形藻和针杆藻.冗余分析(RDA)表明,水温、混合层深度和RWCS指数是驱动藻类演替的主要因子;WQI分析结果显示李家河水体水质为"良好",混合期水质略好于分层期.本研究指出扬水曝气系统可改变藻类功能群落的演替特征,有效改善水源水库水质,保障了饮水供水安全.     

呼包鄂地区冬季、夏季PM2.5污染特征

基于PMF模型源解析结果分析了呼包鄂地区冬季、夏季主要污染源及污染特征.物质重构结果表明,有机物(19. 9%～44. 6%)、地壳物质(9. 7%～46. 2%)在呼包鄂地区受体PM_(2.5)中占有较大比重.源解析结果表明,冬季各类源对PM_(2.5)的分担率大小依次为:二次源(26. 7%)燃煤源(26. 1%)机动车源(19. 1%)扬尘源(18. 1%),夏季则为二次源(26. 7%)扬尘源(22. 3%)燃煤源(16. 6%)机动车源(15. 1%) SOC(8. 7%),可以看出二次源在呼包鄂地区冬季和夏季均为首要贡献源类,冬季燃煤源、夏季扬尘源对呼包鄂地区的影响较大.分析冬季、夏季典型污染过程,对应于源解析结果,冬季主要污染源为二次源、燃煤源,夏季为二次源.     

基于地理标记照片的入境游客空间特征与移动轨迹——以南京市为例

随着互联网与社交媒体的兴起,用户分享内容中的地理标记数据成为旅游流研究的重要对象。以南京入境旅游流空间特征为研究对象,以2010—2018年Flickr平台内南京地理标记照片为基础,利用DBSCAN算法、ArcGIS 10.2等方法与技术探究南京入境旅游热点区域、游客移动轨迹特征及模式。研究结果显示：（1）南京入境游客访问峰值出现在3-6月及10月,以一日游为主。（2）南京AOI空间分布差异明显,历史城区是南京入境旅游最热门区域,其AOI分布与旅游景区、商业购物等相关产业空间高度重合;中心城区的AOI分布数量次之,钟山风景区是其热度核心,深受热衷历史文化的游客追捧;郊区的AOI分布数量最少,基本与当地旅游景区相吻合。（3）单日游和多日游的游客移动轨迹网具有显著差异性,分别体现在网络范围、网络体系、旅游对流及转移差值4个方面。（4）南京入境游客移动轨迹模式可划分为区域内部移动轨迹模式和区域间移动轨迹模式。根据上述研究结果,分别针对历史城区、中心城区及郊区提出相应的发展建议。     

皖江经济带土壤Cd空间分布特征与生态风险评价

选取2.5 km×2.5 km网格布点法,在皖江经济带A、B、C三地分别采集土壤样品35个、34个、106个,利用ICP-AES分析测定Cd含量特征,运用单项污染指数法、地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法对三地土壤Cd污染状况进行生态风险评价。结果表明：（1）A、B、C三地土壤的Cd含量的算术平均值分别为0.40 mg?kg ^-1、0.66 mg?kg ^-1、0.84 mg?kg ^-1,均高于江淮流域Cd含量土壤背景值;（2）三地土壤pH在5.06~7.58之间,整体上处于酸性和弱碱性之间,pH小于7.0的样品167个,占比95.43%;（3）研究区三个地块土壤Cd污染特征存在明显的空间分异,低污染区在空间上呈带状分布,高污染区在空间上呈岛状分布,污染区分布面积C地>B地>A地。（4）三地土壤环境均受重金属Cd污染的影响,存在生态安全风险,风险大小为C地>B地>A地,风险程度均为潜在生态风险高于地累积生态风险高于单项污染生态风险。本区域土壤农业安全利用需要加以重视并进行分类管控。     

基于二次铝灰的地聚反应稳固化垃圾飞灰

基于工业生产铝过程中回收的二次铝灰（SAD）的地质聚合反应,提出了一种稳固化城市生活垃圾焚烧飞灰（MSWIFA）的新方法,分析硅铝物质的量之比对飞灰中重金属浸出浓度及地聚物固化体力学性能的影响规律.结果表明,当硅铝物质的量之比小于2.5时,二次铝灰-SiO₂基固化体与偏高岭土-SiO₂基固化体中的重金属浸出浓度均随着硅铝物质的量之比的增加而逐渐降低,2种固化体的抗压强度随着硅铝物质的量之比的增加而增加;硅铝物质的量之比达到2.5时,重金属的浸出浓度与固化体的抗压强度均趋于稳定.XRD分析结果显示,偏高岭土-SiO₂基固化体中聚合物的种类与数量均略高于二次铝灰-SiO₂基固化体.但从重金属的浸出浓度与固化体的抗压强度来看,2类固化体对飞灰中重金属的稳固化效果的差别很小,二次铝灰加上部分硅基材料可以作为偏高岭土的替代品,用于稳固化飞灰重金属的地质聚合反应中.二次铝灰-SiO₂基固化体的抗压强度达到13.65MPa,具备一定的力学性能,可用于部分特定的建筑材料.     

17α-乙炔基雌二醇在微塑料上的吸附和解吸行为

以内分泌干扰物17α-乙炔基雌二醇（EE2）作为目标污染物,系统研究了5种微塑料聚酰胺（PA）、聚乙烯（PE）、聚氨酯（TPU）、聚氯乙烯（PVC）和聚苯乙烯（PS）对EE2的吸附动力学、吸附等温线及解吸作用.微塑料对EE2的吸附动力学和吸附等温线的结果表明,5种微塑料对EE2的吸附能力为PA>TPU>PE>PVC>PS;5种微塑料中TPU和PA具有最大的吸附能力和吸附容量,主要归因于氢键产生的化学吸附;而PE、PS、PVC主要是依靠范德华力的相互作用.因PA和TPU对EE2的吸附能力更强,两者的解吸量均高于其他3种物质.采用解吸率来反映不同微塑料的解吸性能,发现EE2在PS中的解吸率最高,PA和TPU上解吸率相对较低.采用单因素重复测量方差分析统计学方法对EE2在5种微塑料上的解吸特性进行分析,EE2在PS与其他4种微塑料之间表现为显著性差异,其余微塑料两两之间无显著性差异;尽管肠胃液中解吸率高于去离子水,但两者并无显著性差异.     

多点汇流下污水管网污染物迁变规律及其机制

为研究城市污水管网多点汇流条件下污染物的迁变规律及其对微生物繁衍的影响机制,建立一套多汇流点位的污水管道中试系统,探究污水输送过程中碳,氮,硫3类主要污染物质的迁移转化特性.结果表明,汇流点前溶解态化学需氧量（SCOD）和硫酸盐（SO₄^2-）浓度下降,氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）浓度上升,支管汇流使得汇流点3类污染物浓度显著增加.后期水质达到稳定,在保证支管污水的汇入导致各类污染物增加量基本不变的情况下,SCOD浓度由进口的320mg/L左右下降至出口的280mg/L左右,在氨化作用下导致的NH₄⁺-N总增加量在15mg/L左右,高于因汇流产生的增加总量12.5mg/L左右,结果表明汇流管网系统中微生物的消耗代谢作用是碳氮类污染物变化的主导因素,而SO₄^2-后期进出口浓度均在20mg/L左右,说明支管汇流和生化代谢使SO₄^2-的含量维持在动态平衡的状态.此外,对管网中试系统生物相中微生物繁衍过程进行分析可知,发酵菌（FB）,产氢产乙酸菌（HPA）,硫酸盐还原菌（SRB）的含量随繁衍时间显著增加,并在沿程的不同汇流点处出现丰度升高现象.综上所述,在多点汇流导致污水水质波动的作用下,促进了管网生物相中微生物的繁衍增殖,并增强了其代谢作用在污水管网污染物转化的主导地位,使得污染物在管网输送过程中呈现更为显著的转化现象.