War Zones and Game Sinks in Lewis and Clark's West

The journals of Lewis and Clark reveal a major difference in the taxa, numbers, and behavior of megafauna on either side of the Rocky Mountains in western North America. Two prior events set the stage for what Lewis and Clark would find. The first was the extinction around 13,000 years ago of two-thirds of the native megafauna of the American West. The second was the effects on Indians of deadly new diseases and new technologies brought by Europeans in the post-Columbian era. Populations of large animals, which were preferred prey for native people, were not immune to European influence. Along the Columbia River corridor west of the Rockies, tens of thousands of people lived in a game sink. Here Lewis and Clark's party found too few animals to live off the land by hunting. They adapted poorly to the local diet of fish and roots offered by the Nez Perce and bought dogs and horses to sustain themselves. To the east, uninhabited lands along the Upper Missouri and the Yellowstone rivers supported an abundance of wild game, especially bison, elk, deer, pronghorn, and wolves. This game source occupied part of a buffer zone of 120,000 km² probed by various Indian war parties, some of them armed with muskets. William Clark recognized the relationship and near the end of their journey he wrote that they found large numbers of large animals in the land between nations that were at war. Both the abundance of game in buffer or war zones and scarcity of big game in sinks have been misinterpreted as a natural or typical condition. Although efforts to restore ecosystems to what is described in early journals may have merit, they are aimed at a flickering target. Long before these journals were written, the land had been stripped of most of its native megafauna through human influence. In the absence of humans, we predict that much larger populations of bison, elk, deer, and wolves would have ranged the West than were reported in historic documents.     

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

The need for work: Jahoda's latent functions of employment in a representative sample of the German population

Marie Jahoda's latent deprivation model was tested with a representative sample of the German population (N = 998). As expected, employees reported high levels of time structure, social contact, collective purpose, and activity not only in comparison to unemployed persons but also in comparison to persons who are out of the labor force (i.e., students, homemakers, retirees). Even unskilled manual workers reported more access to these “latent functions” than persons without employment. For the fifth of Jahoda's dimensions, identity/status, no significant differences between employed persons and persons who are out of the labor force could be identified. However, unemployed persons reported less status than all other groups did. Thus, Jahoda's model was clearly endorsed for four of the five latent functions of employment and partly endorsed for the fifth function. All variables in the model correlated significantly with distress, as expected. Demographic correlates of the manifest and latent functions were also analyzed: Access to the latent functions was best among young men from higher social classes who lived in an intimate relationship in a comparatively large household with children. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An outlook on Dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure,crashes and policy

This paper discusses the method used for an outlook on road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. The objectives of the outlook are to judge the feasibility of the Dutch road safety policy targets and to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. The outlook consists of baseline forecasts assuming the unchanged continuation of the effect of current road safety policy as a starting point, and the effect of new measures on top of that. We used four different mobility scenarios, derived from a comprehensive study about the macro-economic development of Dutch society until 2040. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it appeared doubtful whether the policy targets of that time for the maximum number of fatalities in 2020 (580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures, the effects of which were estimated. The results show that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can probably be met. The recently adjusted policy target of 500 fatalities in 2020 is also feasible if additional new measures are taken.     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

Relationships between water mass characteristics and estimates of fish population abundance from trawl surveys

The Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans conducts annual bottom trawl surveys to monitor changes in the abundance of the major commercially important groundfish populations. Some of these surveys have been in operation for almost 20 yr. The estimates from these surveys often indicate rapid changes in abundance over time beyond that expected from the population dynamics of the fish. Much of this interannual change has been interpreted as variation, the magnitude of which has often made it difficult to measure anything but the most severe effects of fishing, pollution or any other intervention on the population. Recent studies have shown that some of this variation may be attributed to changes in catchability of fish due to the effects of environmental variables on fish distribution. Annual changes in abundance as estimated from such field surveys may be confounded by changes in catchability due to annual changes in environmental conditions. In this study, trawl catches of age 4 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from surveys conducted during March 1979–1988 were compared with concurrent measurements of bottom salinity, temperature and depth. Large catches of age 4 cod are more likely to occur in water characterized as the intermediate cold layer defined by salinities of 32–33.5 and temperatures<5°C. This relationship also appears to be modified by depth. We further show that internnual changes in the estimated abundance from the surveys were, in a number of cases, coincident with changes in the proportion of the bottom water composed of the intermediate cold water layer. The implications that these patterns may have on interpreting trends in the estimates of abundance from trawl surveys are discussed.     

Utility estimates of job performance as related to the Data,People, and Things parameters of work

The purpose of this study was to investigate the applicability of the Schmidt–Hunter global estimation method of assessing utility across a broad range of jobs. Ninety-five industrial/organizational psychologists estimated the utility of performance in 24 carefully selected jobs. The utility estimates were compared to the Data, People, and Things worker function parameters from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. The majority of jobs (62.5 per cent) produced significantly positively skewed distributions of dollar-valued job performance. The Data, People, and Things parameters accounted for 46 per cent of the variance in the non-symmetry of the utility distributions and 33 per cent of the variance in the inter-rater reliability of the utility estimates. The implications of the results were discussed for utility assessment, and explained from a decision theoretic perspective. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.