Assessing plausible rates of population growth in humpback whales from life-history data

The rate of growth of any population is a quantity of interest in conservation and management and is constrained by biological factors. In this study, recent data on life-history parameters influencing rates of population growth in humpback whales, including survival, age at first parturition and calving rate are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute a distribution of rates of increase (ROIs) taking into account uncertainty in biological parameter estimates. Two approaches for computing juvenile survival are proposed, which taken into account along with other life-history data, resulted in the following estimates of the rate of population growth: Approach A: mean of 7.3%/year (95% CI = 3.5–10.5%/year) and Approach B: mean of 8.6%/year (95% CI = 5.0–11.4%/year). It is proposed that the upper 99% quantile of the resulting distribution of the ROI for Approach B (11.8%/year) be established as the maximum plausible ROI for humpback whales and be used in population assessment of the species. Possible sources of positive and negative biases in the present estimates are presented and include measurement error in estimation of life-history parameters, changes in the environment within the period these quantities are measured, density dependence or other natural factors. However, it is difficult to evaluate potential biases without additional data. The methods presented in this study can be applied to other species for which life-history parameters are available and are useful in assessing plausibility in the estimation of population growth rates from time series of abundance estimates.     

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.     

Persistence models for mark-recapture

The stable of models available for analyzing mark-recapture data (Otis et al. Wild Momogr 66:135, 1978) includes those having behavioral characteristics, time variation, heterogeneity, along with combinations of those characteristics. This paper proposes use of a series of models based on the persistence model of Ramsey and Usner (Biometrics 59:331–339, 2003). We show that persistence can be modeled in combination with behavior and with time variation. We apply the persistence model to situations in which capture occasions are not equally-spaced in time. Two case studies illustrate the use of these extended persistence models.     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Environmental citizens: climate pledger attitudes and micro-generation installation

To date, the phenomenon of climate pledging has been little investigated. This paper describes the results of a questionnaire survey of 201 climate pledgers in Greater Manchester (UK), focusing on attitudes and behaviour relevant to environmental citizenship. In particular, attention is given to attitudes and behaviour related to renewable energy and micro-generation, selectively comparing with national UK data. The survey shows that installation cost and lengthy pay-back times have been major constraints on microgen installation not just for the general population, but also for those with a high degree of environmental commitment. Nonetheless, the microgen installation rate among the climate pledgers as of early 2011, before the introduction of feed-in tariffs, was at least 11 times higher than the national average. Using regression analyses, the best model that could be found for explaining installation of the most popular microgen technology, solar thermal, accounted for 27% of variance. Within this model, environmental commitment was of less importance than having given serious consideration to other microgen options. While this was possibly due to group homogeneity, in general, the results do emphasise the limits to environmental citizenship.     

City Partners Maintain Climate Change Action Despite National Cuts: Residential Energy Efficiency Programme Valued at Local Level

Cities, regional governments and their local utilities are taking leading roles in programmes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Agenda 21 highlighted the need for such local action to achieve the goals of the 1992 Earth Summit and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This trend of increasing local action was demonstrated dramatically in Canada in 2006 when the newly elected federal government cancelled many of the previous government's climate change programmes. The EnerGuide for Houses Program illustrates the growing importance of local decisions where the federal government developed a home energy rating system that was delivered through a range of partnerships across the country. Despite all political parties voting to increase funding for the programme in 2005, the Conservative government cancelled it in May 2006. The response by provincial and local governments was immediate. Their actions revealed the ability and desire among lower-tier governments to sustain popular climate change initiatives. Both the political responses and financial implications are included in the examination of the shift in environmental responsibility from the national to the local sphere.     

阴离子粘土(LDH)吸附腐殖酸的动力学研究

利用实验室制备的镁铝阴离子粘土材料,研究其吸附水中腐殖酸的动力学.研究结果表明:在初始浓度10～40 mg/L及温度298～323 K的范围内,阴离子粘土对水中腐殖酸的吸附动力学符合拟二级速率方程;阴离子粘土对腐殖酸的吸附符合Langmuir和Freundlich等温吸附方程,吸附是吸热反应,吸附量随温度升高而略有增加,但吸附表观活化能只有15.36 kJ/mol,说明温度对此吸附的影响并不显著.     

Cobalt and secondary poisoning in the terrestrial food chain: data review and research gaps to support risk assessment

Cobalt is a naturally occurring element found in rocks, soil, water, plants, and animals and has diverse industrial importance. It is cycled in surface environments through many natural processes (e.g. volcanic eruptions, weathering) and can be introduced through numerous anthropogenic activities (e.g. burning of coal or oil, or the production of cobalt alloys). The environmental behaviour of cobalt in terrestrial environment is relatively poorly studied and in particular where Co is used in industrial processes, the baseline information to support wider and long-term environmental impacts is widely dispersed. To support the adoption of new EU regulations on the risk assessment of chemicals, we review here the various aspects of the environmental chemistry, fate and transport of Co across environmental interfaces and discuss the toxicology and potential for bio magnification and food chain accumulation. The soil-to-plant transfer of Co appears to be viable route to expose lower trophic levels to biologically significant concentrations and Co is potentially accumulated in biomass and top soil. Evidence for further accumulation through soil-invertebrate transfer and to higher trophic levels is suggested by some studies but this is obscured by the relatively high variability of published transfer data. This variation is not due to one particular aspect of the transfer of Co in terrestrial environments. Influences are from the variability of geological sources within soil systems; the sensitivity of Co mobility to environmental factors (e.g. pH) and the variety of life strategies for metal elimination/use within biological species. Toxic effects of Co have been suggested for some soil-plant animal studies however, uncertainty in the extrapolation from laboratory to field is a major limitation.