Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

Nanotechnology, risk and the environment: a review

Nanotechnologies are already interacting with the environment. Scientists and engineers are manipulating matter at the nanoscale, and these nanoscale processes and products are being used by industry in commercially available products. These products are either applied directly to the environment or end up in the environment through indirect pathways. This review examines the state of current environmental risk assessment of nanotechnologies. Nanotechnology is described generally, then both the possible benefits of nanotechnology and the risks are reviewed in a traditional way. Subsequently, a philosophical criticism of the traditional way of looking at risks is offered.     

Principal response curves technique for the analysis of multivariate biomonitoring time series

Although chemical and biological monitoring is often used to evaluate the quality of surface waters for regulatory purposes and/or to evaluate environmental status and trends, the resulting biological and chemical data sets are large and difficult to evaluate. Multivariate techniques have long been used to analyse complex data sets. This paper discusses the methods currently in use and introduces the principal response curves method, which overcomes the problem of cluttered graphical results representation that is a great drawback of most conventional methods. To illustrate this, two example data sets are analysed using two ordination techniques, principal component analysis and principal response curves. Whereas PCA results in a difficult-to-interpret diagram, principal response curves related methods are able to show changes in community composition in a diagram that is easy to read. The principal response curves method is used to show trends over time with an internal reference (overall mean or reference year) or external reference (e.g. preferred water quality or reference site). Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed and illustrated.     

Estimation of suspended sediment concentration in rivers using acoustic methods

Acoustic Doppler current meters (ADV, ADCP, and ADP) are widely used in water systems to measure flow velocities and velocity profiles. Although these meters are designed for flow velocity measurements, they can also provide information defining the quantity of particulate matter in the water, after appropriate calibration. When an acoustic instrument is calibrated for a water system, no additional sensor is needed to measure suspended sediment concentration (SSC). This provides the simultaneous measurements of velocity and concentration required for most sediment transport studies. The performance of acoustic Doppler current meters for measuring SSC was investigated in different studies where signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and suspended sediment concentration were related using different formulations. However, these studies were each limited to a single study site where neither the effect of particle size nor the effect of temperature was investigated. In this study, different parameters that affect the performance of an ADV for the prediction of SSC are investigated. In order to investigate the reliability of an ADV for SSC measurements in different environments, flow and SSC measurements were made in different streams located in the Aegean region of Turkey having different soil types. Soil samples were collected from all measuring stations and particle size analysis was conducted by mechanical means. Multivariate analysis was utilized to investigate the effect of soil type and water temperature on the measurements. Statistical analysis indicates that SNR readings ob tained from the ADV are affected by water temperature and particle size distribution of the soil, as expected, and a prediction model is presented relating SNR readings to SSC mea surements where both water temperature and sediment characteristics type are incorporated into the model. The coefficients of the suggested model were obtained using the multivariate anal ysis. Effect of high turbidity conditions on ADV performance was also investigated during and after rain events.     

Review of state of the art methods for measuring water in landfills

In recent years several types of sensors and measurement techniques have been developed for measuring the moisture content, water saturation, or the volumetric water content of landfilled wastes. In this work, we review several of the most promising techniques. The basic principles behind each technique are discussed and field applications of the techniques are presented, including cost estimates. For several sensors, previously unpublished data are given. Neutron probes, electrical resistivity (impedance) sensors, time domain reflectometry (TDR) sensors, and the partitioning gas tracer technique (PGTT) were field tested with results compared to gravimetric measurements or estimates of the volumetric water content or moisture content. Neutron probes were not able to accurately measure the volumetric water content, but could track changes in moisture conditions. Electrical resistivity and TDR sensors tended to provide biased estimates, with instrument-determined moisture contents larger than independent estimates. While the PGTT resulted in relatively accurate measurements, electrical resistivity and TDR sensors provide more rapid results and are better suited for tracking infiltration fronts. Fiber optic sensors and electrical resistivity tomography hold promise for measuring water distributions in situ, particularly during infiltration events, but have not been tested with independent measurements to quantify their accuracy. Additional work is recommended to advance the development of some of these instruments and to acquire an improved understanding of liquid movement in landfills by application of the most promising techniques in the field.     

Assessment of pesticide contamination in three Mississippi Delta oxbow lakes using Hyalella azteca

Three oxbow lakes in northwestern Mississippi, USA, an area of intensive agriculture, were assessed for biological impairment from historic and current-use pesticide contamination using the amphipod, Hyalella azteca. Surface water and sediment samples from three sites in each lake were collected from Deep Hollow, Beasley, and Thighman Lakes from September 2000 to February 2001. Samples were analyzed for 17 historic and current-use pesticides and selected metabolites. Ten-day H. azteca survival and growth (as length and dry weight) were measured to determine the degree of biological impairment. Maximum number of detectable pesticides in surface water from Deep Hollow, Beasley and Thighman Lakes was 10, 11, and 17, respectively. Maximum number of detectable pesticides in lake sediments was 17, 17, and 15, respectively. Bioassay results indicated no observable survival effects on H. azteca exposed to surface water or sediment from any lake examined and no growth impairment in animals exposed to lake sediments. However, growth was significantly impaired in surface water exposures from Deep Hollow Lake (2 sites) and Beasley Lake (1 site). Statistically significant relationships between growth impairment (length) and cyanazine, methyl parathion, λ-cyhalothrin, chlorfenapyr, and pp′DDE surface water concentrations in Deep Hollow Lake as well as trifluralin, atrazine, and methyl parathion in Beasley Lake were observed. Although pesticide frequency and concentrations were typically greater in sediment than surface water, bioassay results indicated decreased availability of these pesticides in sediment due to the presence of clay and organic carbon. Growth impairment observed in surface water exposures was likely due to complex interaction of pesticide mixtures that were present.     

Competition between phenanthrene, chrysene, and 2,5-dichlorobiphenyl for high-energy adsorption sites in a sediment

We determined the maximum amounts of added phenanthrene, chrysene, and 2,5-dichlorobiphenyl sorbed onto high-energy adsorption sites in a sediment on bi-solute experiments. The bi-solute pairs were phenanthrene/chrysene and phenanthrene/2,5-dichlorobiphenyl. On the bi-solute sorption experiments, one solute was introduced and equilibrated with sediment prior to addition of the second solute. The values for the maximum amounts adsorbed onto high-energy sites revealed that, after equilibration of the first solute, still some high-energy sites could be occupied by the second solute. Phenanthrene, chrysene, and 2,5-dichlorobiphenyl seem to share about 30% of the accessible high-energy adsorption sites in the sediment employed.     

PCDD/PCDF Isomer patterns in waste incinerator flyash and desorbed into the gas phase in relation to temperature

The influence of temperature on the PCDD and PCDF isomer profiles of a municipal waste incinerator flyash and the PCDD/PCDF desorbed from the ash under an inert atmosphere was investigated using a bench-scale reactor. Exposure to temperatures of 250 degrees C and above resulted in significant changes in the distribution of isomers within most dioxin and furan congener groups. The PCDD content tended to become more evenly distributed across the range of isomers than was the case for the raw flyash, while the PCDF content became concentrated across a relatively lower number of isomers. In most cases the desorbed PCDD/PCDF were mainly mono- to tri-chlorinated, and hence had a relatively low I-TEQ value. The isomer profiles of the desorbed species were also influenced by temperature. There were some significant differences between the PCDF isomer profiles of the desorbed species and those of the treated flyashes under the same conditions, but no clear differences between the PCDD isomer profiles.     

Risk assessment of trace elements in the stomach contents of Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphins and Finless Porpoises in Hong Kong waters

The potential health risks due to inorganic substances, mainly metals, was evaluated for the two resident marine mammals in Hong Kong, the Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin (Sousa chinensis) and the Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides). The stomachs from the carcasses of twelve stranded dolphins and fifteen stranded porpoises were collected and the contents examined. Concentrations of thirteen trace elements (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Se, V and Zn) were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). An assessment of risks of adverse effects was undertaken using two toxicity guideline values, namely the Reference Dose (RfD), commonly used in human health risk assessment, and the Toxicity Reference Value (TRV), based on terrestrial mammal data. The levels of trace metals in stomach contents of dolphins and porpoises were found to be similar. Risk quotients (RQ) calculated for the trace elements showed that risks to the dolphins and porpoises were generally low and within safe limits using the values based on the TRV, which are less conservative than those based on the RfD values. Using the RfD-based values the risks associated with arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel and mercury were comparatively higher. The highest RQ was associated with arsenic, however, most of the arsenic in marine organisms should be in the non-toxic organic form, and thus the calculated risk is likely to be overestimated.