Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.     

Behavioural inertia places a top marine predator at risk from environmental change in the Benguela upwelling system

In variable environments, organisms are bound to track environmental changes if they are to survive. Most marine mammals and seabirds are colonial, central-place foragers with long-term breeding-site fidelity. When confronted with environmental change, such species are potentially constrained in their ability to respond to these changes. For example, if environmental conditions deteriorate within their limited foraging range, long-lived species favour adult survival and abandon their current breeding effort, which ultimately influences population dynamics. Should poor conditions persist over several seasons, breeding-site fidelity may force animals to continue breeding in low-quality habitats instead of emigrating towards more profitable grounds. We assessed the behavioural response of a site-faithful central-place forager, the Cape gannet Morus capensis, endemic to the Benguela upwelling system, to a rapid shift in the distribution and abundance of its preferred prey, small pelagic shoaling fish. We studied the distribution and the abundance of prey species, and the diet, foraging distribution, foraging effort, energy requirements, and breeding success of gannets at Malgas Island (South Africa) over four consecutive breeding seasons. Facing a rapid depletion of preferred food within their foraging range, Cape gannets initially increased their foraging effort in search of their natural prey. However, as pelagic fish became progressively scarcer, breeding birds resorted to scavenging readily available discards from a nearby demersal fishery. Their chicks cannot survive on such a diet, and during our 4-year study, numbers of breeding birds at the colony decreased by 40% and breeding success of the remaining birds was very low. Such behavioural inflexibility caused numbers of Cape gannets breeding in Namibia to crash by 95% following over-fishing of pelagic fish in the 1970s. In the context of rapid environmental changes, breeding-site fidelity of long-lived species may increase the risk of local or even global extinction, rendering these species particularly vulnerable to global change.     

Harvesting creates ecological traps: consequences of invisible mortality risks in predator-prey metacommunities

Models of two-patch predator-prey metacommunities are used to explore how the global predator population changes in response to additional mortality in one of the patches. This could describe the dynamics of a predator in an environment that includes a refuge area where that predator is protected and a spatially distinct ("risky") area where it is harvested. The predator's movement is based on its perceived fitness in the two patches, but the risk from the additional mortality is potentially undetectable; this often occurs when the mortality is from human harvesting or from a novel type of top predator. Increases in undetected mortality in the risky area can produce an abrupt collapse of either the refuge population or of the entire predator population when the mortality rate exceeds a threshold level. This is due to the attraction of the risky patch, which has abundant prey due to its high predator mortality. Extinction of the refuge predator population does not occur when the refuge patch has a higher maximum per capita predator growth rate than the exploited patch because the refuge is then more attractive when the predator is rare. The possibility of abrupt extinction of one or both patches from high densities in response to a small increase in harvest is often associated with alternative states. In such cases, large reductions in mortality may be needed to avoid extinction in a collapsing predator population, or to reestablish an extinct population. Our analysis provides a potential explanation for sudden collapses of harvested populations, and it argues for more consideration of adaptive movement in designing protected areas.     

Normalisation models for accounting for fat content in stable isotope measurements in salmonid muscle tissue

Stable isotope analysis is increasingly used in ecological studies. Because lipid content influences δ¹³C, lipids should be removed from lipid-rich samples before δ¹³C analysis. To account for differences in δ¹³C arising from differences in lipid content, relationships between lipid content, C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C with lipid removal can be used to normalise lipid content to uniform levels. We investigate these relationships for salmonid muscle and evaluate the suitability of previously published normalisation equations for these fish. Salmonids with a wide range of condition (muscle lipid content = 3–35% of dry weight) were considered. There were no consistent relationships between lipid content or C:N ratio and Δδ¹⁵N. There were linear relationships between C:N ratio and lipid content (L = −16.53 + 6.27 × C:N); C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = −1.87 + 0.65 × C:N); and lipid content and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = 0.01 + 0.10 × L), which should be used on salmonid stable isotope studies.     

Influence of residency and social odors in interactions between competing native and alien rodents

Residency status of individuals in populations may be an important determinant of the outcomes of interspecific competition between native and introduced species. We examined direct behavioral interactions between two similarly sized rodents, the alien Rattus rattus and native Rattus fuscipes when they were respective residents and intruders in a small enclosure. Resident individuals were dominant in their behaviors toward intruders irrespective of the species that was resident. In contrast, interactive behaviors between conspecifics were often neutral or amicable, supporting suggestions that R. rattus and R. fuscipes are social animals. We then tested whether rodent species use heterospecific odors to avoid aggressive competitive interactions and partition space in the field. Neither R. fuscipes nor R. rattus responded to traps scented with the odors of male or female heterospecifics. If R. fuscipes does not recognize the odor of introduced R. rattus, then odors will not be cues to the presence or territorial space of competing heterospecifics. Rather, findings from both enclosure and field trials suggest that direct aggressive interactions between individual R. rattus and R. fuscipes probably facilitate segregation of space between these two species in wild populations, where resident animals may typically be the winners and exclude heterospecific intruders. These findings have implications for the invasion success of introduced rodents such as R. rattus into intact forests, where native populations may have competitive advantage because of their residency status.     

A principle of natural self-organization

The Science of Nature - This paper is the first part of a trilogy, which comprises a detailed study of a special type of functional organization and demonstrates its relevance with respect to the...     

ECOSAR model performance with a large test set of industrial chemicals

The widely used ECOSAR computer programme for QSAR prediction of chemical toxicity towards aquatic organisms was evaluated by using large data sets of industrial chemicals with varying molecular structures. Experimentally derived toxicity data covering acute effects on fish, Daphnia and green algae growth inhibition of in total more than 1,000 randomly selected substances were compared to the prediction results of the ECOSAR programme in order (1) to assess the capability of ECOSAR to correctly classify the chemicals into defined classes of aquatic toxicity according to rules of EU regulation and (2) to determine the number of correct predictions within tolerance factors from 2 to 1,000. Regarding ecotoxicity classification, 65% (fish), 52% (Daphnia) and 49% (algae) of the substances were correctly predicted into the classes "not harmful", "harmful", "toxic" and "very toxic". At all trophic levels about 20% of the chemicals were underestimated in their toxicity. The class of "not harmful" substances (experimental LC/EC(50)>100 mg l(-1)) represents nearly half of the whole data set. The percentages for correct predictions of toxic effects on fish, Daphnia and algae growth inhibition were 69%, 64% and 60%, respectively, when a tolerance factor of 10 was allowed. Focussing on those experimental results which were verified by analytically measured concentrations, the predictability for Daphnia and algae toxicity was improved by approximately three percentage points, whereas for fish no improvement was determined. The calculated correlation coefficients demonstrated poor correlation when the complete data set was taken, but showed good results for some of the ECOSAR chemical classes. The results are discussed in the context of literature data on the performance of ECOSAR and other QSAR models.