Hip protectors efficacy and barriers to adoption to prevent fall-related injuries in older adults: findings and recommendations from an international workgroup

The Journal of Safety Research has partnered with the Injury Center at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, to briefly report on some of the latest findings in the research community. This report is the sixth in a series of CDC articles. This conference on Hip Protector Use was held at Boston University in June, 2004 under the sponsorship of the Injury Center. Hip fractures from falls are a major threat to the health and well-being of older adults. One approach to hip fracture prevention is the use of hip protectors (HPs), soft padding or hard shells embedded within specially designed underwear. This conference brought together experts to discuss the efficacy and barriers to using HP. Conclusions from the conference included the need for HP product specifications and standards of safety and efficacy, testing protocols, and efficacy trials. While no single entity was identified to advance these initiatives, this effort should be international and should involve collaboration between researchers, health care providers and policy-makers, and HP manufacturers. Plans are already underway for a second international conference in Europe to follow-up these recommendations and develop strategies for implementation.     

Use of passive ambient ozone (O3) samplers in vegetation effects assessment

A stochastistic, Weibull probability model was developed and verified to simulate the underlying frequency distributions of hourly ozone (O3) concentrations (exposure dynamics) using the single, weekly mean values obtained from a passive (sodium nitrite absorbent) sampler. The simulation was based on the data derived from a co-located continuous monitor. Although at the moment the model output may be considered as being specific to the elevation and location of the study site, the results were extremely good. This effort for the approximation of the O3 exposure dynamics can be extended to other sites with similar data sets and in developing a generalized understanding of the stochastic O3 exposure-plant response relationships, conferring measurable benefits to the future use of passive O3 samplers, in the absence of continuous monitoring.     

Clam predation by whelks (Busycon spp.): Experimental tests of the importance of prey size,prey density,and seagrass cover

In 57 l-m² samples within a meadow of Halodule wrightii in Bogue Sound, North Carolina, USA, densities of the clams Mercenaria mercenaria and Chione cancellata were positively associated with seagrass cover. Where seagrass was experimentally removed, marked individuals of both clam species exhibited high rates of mortality in fine sand sediments during two successive experiments spanning 13 months. In the unaltered (control) seagrass meadow, M. mercenaria density remained constant over 13 months and C. cancellata density declined at a slower rate than in the unvegetated plots. Seagrass provides these clams with a refuge from whelk (Busycon carica, B. contrarium, and B. canaliculatum) predation, the major cause of mortality and population decline in experimentally unvegetated plots. In 2 factorial field experiments in unvegetated substratum in which densities of M. mercenaria and C. cancellata were varied independently, first over 5 levels (0 X, 1/2X, 1 X, 2 X, 4 X) and subsequently over 4 levels (0 X, 1/4 X, 1 X, 4 X), there was no repeatable intra- or interspecific effect of density on percent survival, or on the rate of any mortality type. Whelk predation fell preferentially on larger size classes of both species, whereas factors which contribute to clam disappearance usually acted more intensely on smaller sizes. Experimental exclusion of large predators by caging demonstrated that even in unvegetated substratum survivorship of both clam species was high in the absence of whelks and other predators. Individuals of C. cancellata live closer to the sediment surface than those of M. mercenaria, which may explain why seagrass does not serve as effectively to protect them from whelk predation. The mechanism of whelk inhibition may depend upon sediment binding by the H. wrightii root mat, which produces a demonstrable decrease in the physical penetrability of surface sediments.     

Time preference,the environment and the interests of future generations

The behavior of individuals currently living will generally have long-term consequences that affect the well-being of those who will come to live in the future. Intergenerational interdependencies of this nature raise difficult moral issues because only the current generation is in a position to decide on actions that will determine the nature of the world in which future generations will live. Although most are willing to attach some weight to the interests of future generations, many would argue that it is not necessary to treat these interests as equivalent to those of the current generation. A common approach in this context is to use a system of discounting to evaluate future benefits and harms. This paper assesses the logic of discounting drawing on the writings of economists and philosophers. Much of the economic literature concerns the choice of an appropriate social discount rate. The social discount rate can be taken to reflect beliefs about the rights of future generations, a subject that has been extensively debated in the phioosophic literature. The writings of both economists and philosophers concerned with the weight to attach to the interests of future generations are reviewed and evaluated in this paper and the implications for environmental policy are discussed.     

Applying knowledge-based methods to design and implement an air quality workshop

In response to protection needs in class I wilderness areas, forest land managers of the USDA Forest Service must provide input to regulatory agencies regarding air pollutant impacts on air quality-related values. Regional workshops have been convened for land managers and scientists to discuss the aspects and extent of wilderness protection needs. Previous experience with a national workshop indicated that a document summarizing workshop discussions will have little operational utility. An alternative is to create a knowledge-based analytical system, in addition to the document, to aid land managers in assessing effects of air pollutants on wilderness. Knowledge-based methods were used to design and conduct regional workshops in the western United States. Extracting knowledge from a large number of workshop participants required careful planning of workshop discussions. Knowledge elicitation methods helped with this task. This knowledge-based approach appears to be effective for focusing group discussions and collecting knowledge from large groups of specialists.     

Developing inventory and monitoring programs based on multiple objectives

Resource inventory and monitoring (I&M) programs in national parks combine multiple objectives in order to create a plan of action over a finite time horizon. Because all program activities are constrained by time and money, it is critical to plan I&M activities that make the best use of available agency resources. However, multiple objectives complicate a relatively straightforward allocation process. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) offers a structure for multiobjective decision making so that decision-makers’ preferences can be formally incorporated in seeking potential solutions. Within the AHP, inventory and monitoring program objectives and decision criteria are organized into a hierarchy. Pairwise comparisons among decision elements at any level of the hierarchy provide a ratio scale ranking of those elements. The resulting priority values for all projects are used as each project’s contribution to the value of an overall I&M program. These priorities, along with budget and personnel constraints, are formulated as a zero/one integer programming problem that can be solved to select those projects that produce the best program. An extensive example illustrates how this approach is being applied to I&M projects in national parks in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The proposed planning process provides an analytical framework for multicriteria decisionmaking that is rational, consistent, explicit, and defensible.     

Cross-shelf variation in calanoid copepod production during summer 1996 off the Oregon coast, USA

The fecundity of nine species of adult female calanoid copepods, and molting rates for copepodite stages of Calanus marshallae were measured in 24 h shipboard incubations from samples taken during the upwelling season off the Oregon coast. Hydrographic and chlorophyll measurements were made at approximately 300 stations, and living zooplankton were collected at 36 stations on the continental shelf (<150 m depth) and 37 stations offshore of the shelf (>150 m depth) for experimental work. In our experiments, maximum egg production rates (EPR) were observed only for Calanus pacificus and Pseudocalanus mimus, 65.7 and 3.9 eggs fem^-1 day^-1 respectively, about 95% of the maximum rates known from published laboratory observations. EPR of all other copepod species (e.g., C. marshallae, Acartia longiremis and Eucalanus californicus) ranged from 3% to 65% of maximum published rates. Fecundity was not significantly related to body weight or temperature, but was significantly correlated with chlorophyll a concentration for all species except Paracalanus parvus and A. longiremis. Copepod biomass and production in on-shelf waters was dominated by female P. mimus and C. marshallae, accounting for 93% of the adult biomass (3.1 mg C m^-3) and 81% of the adult production (0.19 mg C m^-3 day^-1). Biomass in the off-shelf environment was dominated by female E. californicus, P. mimus, and C. pacificus, accounting for 95% of the adult biomass (2.2 mg C m^-3) and 95% of the adult production (0.08 mg C m^-3 day^-1). Copepodite (C1-C5) production was estimated to be 2.1 mg C m^-3 day^-1 (on-shelf waters) and 1.2 mg C m^-3 day^-1 (off-shelf water). Total adult + juvenile production averaged 2.3 mg C m^-3 day^-1 (on-shelf waters) and 1.3 mg C m^-3 day^-1 (off-shelf waters). We compared our measured female weight-specific growth rates to those predicted from the empirical models of copepod growth rates of Huntley and Lopez [Am Nat (1992) 140:201-242] and Hirst and Lampitt [Mar Biol (1998) 132:247-257]. Most of our measured values were lower than those predicted from the equation of Huntley and Lopez. We found good agreement with Hirst and Lampitt for growth rates <0.10 day^-1 but found that their empirical equations underestimated growth at rates >0.10 day^-1. The mismatch with Hirst and Lampitt resulted because some of our species were growing at maximum rates whereas their composite empirical equations predict "global" averages that do not represent maximum growth rates.     

When r-selection may not predict introduced-species proliferation: predation of a nonnative oyster.

Predicting outcomes of species introductions may be enhanced by integrating life-history theory with results of contained experiments that compare ecological responses of exotic and analogue native species to dominant features of the recipient environment. An Asian oyster under consideration for introduction to the Chesapeake Bay, USA, the rapidly growing Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis), may not be as successful an invader as its r-selected life history suggests if the trade-off for rapid growth and maturation is lower investment in defenses against blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) predation than the native Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). In laboratory trials, blue crabs simultaneously offered equal numbers of Suminoe and Eastern oysters consumed more nonnatives, irrespective of whether the crabs had previous experience with Suminoe oysters as prey. Satiated blue crabs consumed nearly three times as many Suminoe oysters as Eastern oysters of 25-mm shell height, and eight times as many of 35-mm shell height. Despite blue crabs consuming small (30 mm) Suminoe oysters at twice the rate of large (40 mm) Suminoe oysters, when 40-mm Suminoe were paired with 30-mm Eastern oysters, seven times as many of the larger (Suminoe) oysters were consumed. The greater susceptibility of C. ariakensis than C. virginica to blue crab predation appears to be based upon the biomechanics of shell strength rather than active selection of a more attractive food. Much less force was required to crush shells of Suminoe than Eastern oysters of similar shell height. Tissue transplant experiments demonstrated greater predation on oyster tissues in weaker C. ariakensis shells independent of tissue identity, and duration of handling time before rejection of C. virginica exceeded the time to crush C. ariakensis. These results, coupled with the present importance of blue crab predation in limiting recovery of native Eastern oysters, imply a role for blue crabs in inhibiting Suminoe oysters, if introduced, from attaining high adult densities required to restore a fishery, provide appreciable reef habitat, and reduce turbidity through filtration. Thus, in high-predation environments, allocation of resources to rapid growth and development rather than to predation defenses reflects a life-history trade-off that may promote early stages of invasion, yet prevent attainment of dense adult populations.     

Spatial statistical models that use flow and stream distance

We develop spatial statistical models for stream networks that can estimate relationships between a response variable and other covariates, make predictions at unsampled locations, and predict an average or total for a stream or a stream segment. There have been very few attempts to develop valid spatial covariance models that incorporate flow, stream distance, or both. The application of typical spatial autocovariance functions based on Euclidean distance, such as the spherical covariance model, are not valid when using stream distance. In this paper we develop a large class of valid models that incorporate flow and stream distance by using spatial moving averages. These methods integrate a moving average function, or kernel, against a white noise process. By running the moving average function upstream from a location, we develop models that use flow, and by construction they are valid models based on stream distance. We show that with proper weighting, many of the usual spatial models based on Euclidean distance have a counterpart for stream networks. Using sulfate concentrations from an example data set, the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS), we show that models using flow may be more appropriate than models that only use stream distance. For the MBSS data set, we use restricted maximum likelihood to fit a valid covariance matrix that uses flow and stream distance, and then we use this covariance matrix to estimate fixed effects and make kriging and block kriging predictions. Received: July 2005 / Revised: March 2006