Monitoring, modelling and environmental exposure assessment of industrial chemicals in the aquatic environment

Monitoring and laboratory data play integral roles alongside fate and exposure models in comprehensive risk assessments. The principle in the European Union Technical Guidance Documents for risk assessment is that measured data may take precedence over model results but only after they are judged to be of adequate reliability and to be representative of the particular environmental compartments to which they are applied. In practice, laboratory and field data are used to provide parameters for the models, while monitoring data are used to validate the models' predictions. Thus, comprehensive risk assessments require the integration of laboratory and monitoring data with the model predictions. However, this interplay is often overlooked. Discrepancies between the results of models and monitoring should be investigated in terms of the representativeness of both. Certainly, in the context of the EU risk assessment of existing chemicals, the specific requirements for monitoring data have not been adequately addressed. The resources required for environmental monitoring, both in terms of manpower and equipment, can be very significant. The design of monitoring programmes to optimise the use of resources and the use of models as a cost-effective alternative are increasing in importance. Generic considerations and criteria for the design of new monitoring programmes to generate representative quality data for the aquatic compartment are outlined and the criteria for the use of existing data are discussed. In particular, there is a need to improve the accessibility to data sets, to standardise the data sets, to promote communication and harmonisation of programmes and to incorporate the flexibility to change monitoring protocols to amend the chemicals under investigation in line with changing needs and priorities.     

Hazardous waste indicators for national decision makers

Indicators and indices are important tools that assist decision makers to formulate and implement plans for management at local, national and international levels. Four indicators for hazardous waste management are described that have recently been adopted within the United Nations framework of Indicators of Sustainable Development. Although these four indicators will be useful tools, the need for a broader range of policy-relevant qualitative and quantitative indicators, proxy indicators and indices is outlined. The argument is advanced that in order for all nations to better manage the range of hazardous waste issues, including waste generation, export/import and disposal, a set of innovative indicators and indices is required. Useful indicators and indices are described that could be used to link and quantify likely environmental, ecosystem and health impacts and risks especially from hazardous waste disposal. Indicators are also suggested that could be used to illustrate the shift in industrial strategy away from end-of-pipe processes towards waste recycling, cleaner production and integrated life-cycle analysis. It was concluded that until the lack of reliable and harmonized data on hazardous waste is addressed, indicator development and use by national and international decision makers cannot readily be implemented.     

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

Surface coal mining hydrology

A physical-process approach to the planning and design of stable mine drainage systems is presented. Various source control measures useful for minimizing water pollution associated with mining activities are discussed, along with guidelines for selection of appropriate measures considering site-specific conditions. Source control measures discussed include surface protection, mechanical treatment, detention and filtering structures, and water diversion structures. Flow charts depicting design procedures for surface protection measures and diversion channels are included. An overview of dynamic equilibrium concepts applicable to diversion channel design in sandy soils is also presented. Different types of sediment ponds, design considerations, and basic design concepts are introduced in a section pertaining to treatment measures. Reference documents providing detailed design guidelines and methodologies are cited in discussions of the different control measures.     

How chemically stable is stabilized hazardous waste?

Bioassays can provide meaningful information about the relative toxicity of remediated soil samples, revealing the unwelcome toxic side effects produced by some cleanup projects. Section 121 of CERCLA's 1986 amendments calls for hazardous waste site remediations to permanently and significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, and mobility of hazardous substances, pollutants, and contaminants. Traditional engineering technology has focused on reducing volume and mobility, assuming that such reduction would lead to reductions in toxicity. Environmental scientists have argued, however, that such reductions are not always the result, but lack of consensus on how hazardous waste mixtures should be measured toxicologically has slowed development of integrated assessments. The aquatic and terrestrial bioassays discussed in this article are evaluated for various chemicals, mixtures of chemicals, and actual waste site chemical mixtures at a Superfund mobility reduction project in Kent, Washington. Results suggest that although remediation accomplished the primary objective of reducing mobility, it also introduced toxic effects. These tradeoffs must be viewed holistically when the ultimate performance of cleanup measures is judged.     

The Relationship Between Exposure to Arsenic Concentrations in Drinking Water and the Development of Skin Lesions in Farmers from Inner Mongolia, China

Associations between the concentration of arsenic naturally occurring in drinking water and the development of skin lesions in people have been documented for some years at various locations around the world. Data on the exposure-response relationship between concentrations of arsenic in drinking water and prevalence of skin lesions in farmers from five locations in Inner Mongolia, China have been collected from the original publications and re-analysed together as a meta-study. The calculated data show a positive linear exposure-response relationship without a threshold. The reasons for this linear correlation are discussed and compared with the data from Xinjiang, another arsenism area located in a different geographical area of China. Here a different relationship was recorded that involved a threshold concentration before skin lesions developed. The significance of these two different exposure-response scenarios is discussed.     

Effects of Selenium Supplementation on Arsenism: An Intervention Trial in Inner Mongolia

This paper reports the effects of a placebo-controlled Se-enriched yeast supplementation trial, conducted for 14 months, on arsenism in adult farmers living in a rural community in Inner Mongolia, China. The farmers had been naturally exposed to elevated concentrations of As in drinking water from tube-wells since 1983 but changed to arsenic-free drinking water when the trial began in June 1996. Blood and hair Se and As concentrations were analysed pre-intervention and at the end of the 3rd, 9th and 14th month, while skin lesions were assessed pre-intervention, as well as at the end of the 14th month, using the Arsenism Clinical Criteria established by the Ministry of Health, China. As the trial was a voluntary one, a number of farmers did not routinely have their blood and hair samples taken for analysis. Consequently, the data have been analysed in two categories. Fifty-four farmers from the Se-group and 29 from the placebo-group who were sampled on each occasion were considered as one group, which has been compared with the second group comprising up to a total of 100 farmers in the Se-group and 86 in the placebo-group. Results calculated for those farmers who were sampled on each occasion, showed that at the end of the trial, blood and hair Se concentrations of the Se-group increased from 0.130 to 0.186 µg ml^–1 and from 0.431 to 0.502 µg g^–1, respectively, while those of the placebo-groups remained constant. Blood and hair As concentrations of the Se-group decreased from 0.051 to 0.015 µg ml^–1 and from 2.57 to 0.680 µg g^–1, respectively, a greater reduction than those in the placebo-group that went from 0.064 to 0.024 µg ml^–1 and from 2.62 to 1.25 µg g^–1, respectively. When the data from all patients were examined, the analytical trends were similar. An evaluation of skin lesions in the category who were sampled for hair and blood on each occasion showed that 41.2% of hyperkeratosis, 50.0% of depigmentation and 44.7% of pigmentation in the Se-group improved one or more degrees, while those in the placebo-group improved by only 7.1, 12.0 and 6.7%, respectively. A total of 61.1% of the adults in Se-group improved in one or more type of skin lesion, but only 17.2% improved in the placebo-group. Comparable results were obtained when all the data from both categories of farmers were examined. Results from the trial showed that Se supplementation was more effective for the improvement of adults who were affected by double or triple skin lesions. In the placebo-group, most of the severely affected adults improved in only one kind of skin lesion, but in the Se-group, more adults improved in two or three kinds of skin lesions. Although the trial was limited by its relatively small size, the results have provided some evidence of the usefulness of Se supplementation for people affected by arsenism.     

Arsenism Clinical Stages and their Relation with Hair Arsenic Concentration of Residents of Bayinmaodao Rural District, Inner Mongolia, China

The clinical skin lesions of arsenism in men and women in Bayinmaodao rural district in Inner Mongolia, Peoples Republic of China, have been examined by doctors, and their hair and drinking water samples analysed for arsenic by hydride generation and ICP-AES. Altogether 311 arsenism patients with a 15.53% prevalence rate for the district were recorded. The disease prevalence rate was positively related to population, age, and their exposure to elevated arsenic concentrations in the drinking water from 1983 when new wells were dug and drinking of surface water was abandoned. Hyperkeratosis was the most serious skin lesion with the highest occurrence rate, then depigmentation and pigmentation in decreasing order. With increasing severity of the disease, ranging from skin lesion with single hyperkeratosis 1° to hyperkeratosis 3° with depigmentation 3° and pigmentation 3°, the results showed that arsenic concentrations in head hair had increased. Arsenic concentrations in hair were positively correlated with the arsenic concentrations in drinking water obtained from local wells.     

Effects of Social Structure and Prey Dynamics on Extinction Risk in Gray Wolves

Extinction models based on diffusion theory generally fail to incorporate two important aspects of population biology—social structure and prey dynamics. We include these aspects in an individual-based extinction model for small, isolated populations of the gray wolf (Canis lupus). Our model predicts mean times to extinction significantly longer than those predicted by more general (diffusion) models. According to our model, an isolated population of 50 wolves has a 95% chance of surviving just 9 years and only a 30% chance of surviving beyond 100 years. Reflecting the influence of social structure, a wolf population initially comprising 50 individuals is expected to persist only a few years longer, on average (71 years), than is a population initially comprising just a single reproductive pair (62 years). In contrast, substantially greater average prey abundance leads to dramatically longer expected persistence times. Autocorrelated prey dynamics result in a more complex distribution of extinction times than predicted by many extinction models. We contend that demographic stochasticity may pose the greatest threat to small, isolated wolf populations, although environmental stochasticity and genetic effects may compound this threat. Our work highlights the importance of considering social structure and resource dynamics in the development of population viability analyses.