An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

黑碳对土壤和沉积物中菲的吸附解吸行为及生物可利用性的影响

利用淡水单孔蚓Monopylephorus limosus的生物富集实验,研究了黑碳对土壤和沉积物中多环芳烃类有机化合物菲生物可利用性的影响,同时研究了黑碳对菲吸附和解吸行为的影响,并用"双元平衡解吸(DED)模型"对解吸行为进行了预测.结果表明,土壤和沉积物中黑碳的存在直接导致了菲在颤蚓体内的生物累积因子(BSAF)的降低,其原因在于菲在黑碳沉积物样品中的不可逆吸附程度的显著增强.研究发现,土壤和沉积物中菲的生物可利用性与土壤和沉积物中菲的吸附相浓度无关而与孔隙水浓度密切相关.     

VP型宽频带倾斜仪的同震响应衰减关系研究∗

基于徐州台和常熟台 2 套 VP 型宽频带倾斜仪记录到的 186 次同震形变波,统计分析其振幅-震级特征,分区对比研究其衰减关系,结合观测资料计算仪器特征参数,通过岩芯试验获取场地基岩性质,综合分析仪器观测效能。结果表明：(1)相比于常熟台,徐州台的 NS 向和 EW 向拟合均较为稳定,记震能力更好;(2)不同构造分区中拟合的振幅-震级关系,随着震中距增大,最大振幅幅值呈指数上升且拟合程度显著增强;(3)仪器基墩稳定性对同震响应存在一定的影响,基墩稳定性好,观测数据年零漂小,同震记录相对稳定;不同岩性的基墩对同震记录的敏感性存在差异,同震响应振幅与基墩弹性模量成反比。     

利用Cu-Fe复合金属氧化物净化水中的磷

研究了利用Cu-Fe复合金属氧化物净化水中磷的过程。实验结果表明,在吸附剂的制备过程中,加入Cu可以显著提高吸附剂对水中磷的净化效率,Cu的适宜加入量为Cu/Fe摩尔比1∶2。在磷净化过程中,p H值对Cu-Fe复合金属氧化物的净化效率有显著影响,较低的p H值有利于磷的净化;水中磷的净化率随吸附剂用量的增加而增加,适宜的投加量为0.2 g/100 m L;吸附剂对水中磷的净化速度较快,磷的吸附率在5 min内达到87.08%,吸附2 h达到平衡,磷的净化率为98.85%;Cu-Fe复合金属氧化物净化水中磷的吸附等温线符合Langmuir方程,磷的最大吸附量为11.36 mg/g。     

北京市污水处理厂出水中雌二醇的概率生态风险评价

随着北京市再生水补给河湖规模扩大,污水处理厂出水中雌激素活性物质引起的受纳水体生态风险日益受到关注。以雌二醇为例,利用物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)模型和联合概率曲线(joint probability curve,JPC)方法开展北京市污水处理厂出水的概率生态风险评价研究。通过文献调研整理了北京市约430个物种,利用美国环境保护署ECOTOX数据库获取了其中7个物种的雌二醇毒性数据,构建了正态分布、对数正态分布、Logistic分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布、Burr III型分布和Gumbel分布等7个SSD模型,评价了北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及"混凝-沉淀-过滤-臭氧"、"超滤-臭氧"和"超滤-活性炭-臭氧"3种深度处理工艺组合出水的生态风险。结果表明,利用北京市7个物种雌二醇毒性数据构建的SSD模型具有合理性,SSD模型选择对生态风险评价结果的影响较大,对数正态分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布和Burr III型均是可接受的SSD模型,其中拟合效果最佳的Burr III型分布模型给出了最保守的风险估计。Burr III型分布模型的模拟结果显示,北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及3种深度处理工艺组合出水的总体风险期望值分别为0.070、0.040、0.036和0.026,该结果可以为北京市未来水生态保护目标的设定以及污水处理工艺的升级改造提供决策参考。     

陕西秦岭南麓316国道沿线地质灾害防治对策研究

穿越于秦岭南麓汉台区北部中低山区的316国道沿线地质环境条件复杂,地质灾害类型多样。每年汛期地质灾害频发,数百至数万方的危岩体常将路面掩埋,少则堵塞交通数小时,多则数天,过往车辆及行人的财产受到严重威胁。由于316国道为我国南北运输的重要通道,社会影响较大。为此,该文在汉台区1:50 000地质灾害详细调查项目的基础上,将316国道作为重点地段进行专题研究,分析316国道沿线地质灾害的类型、发育特征、成因,并提出了相应的防治对策。调查分析认为316国道沿线地质灾害类型主要为崩塌、滑坡和泥石流;孕育地质灾害发育的不稳定边坡坡型、坡向、坡高、宽度和厚度等决定地质灾害的发育特征;降雨和人类工程活动是地质灾害的主要诱发因素。最后,提出了以监测预警和卸荷减载、铺设柔性防护网、设置抗滑桩等为主的防治对策,为汉中市国土资源局汉台分局等相关部门地质灾害的防范提供决策与依据,也为公路沿线地质灾害的防治提供技术支撑。     

吉林省“十三五”期间污染物减排对策及建议

通过分析吉林省"十二五"期间总量减排取得的成效及存在的问题,提出吉林省"十三五"污染物总量控制政策及对策措施。此项研究是吉林省"十三五"规划前期研究的重要内容,对于吉林省今后的环境管理和总量控制规划的工作思路、发展方向的调整和转变,提高总量控制规划的可操作水平,促进新时期全省环境保护工作的开展方面都有借鉴意义。     

Phosphorus speciation and effects of environmental factors on release of phosphorus from sediments obtained from Taihu Lake,Tien Lake,and East Lake

Phosphorus is considered the primary nutrient limiting eutrophication. The release of phosphorus from sediments not only provides hydrophytes with essential nutrients, but can also produce entrophication in lakes. In this study, the sediment characteristics, phosphorus speciation, and environmental factors affecting phosphorus release from sediments from Taihu Lake, Tien Lake, and East Lake were investigated. The results indicated that phosphorus levels of sediments ranged from 647 ± 67 to 2343 ± 122 mg/kg. Inorganic phosphorus comprised the majority of total phosphorus. The main phosphorus speciation of sediments obtained from Taihu Lake and Tien Lake was Residual-P, and the main phosphorus speciation of sediment obtained from East Lake was NaOH-P. Phosphorus release occurred in acidic and alkaline conditions but more frequently under alkaline conditions. The amount of phosphorus released from the sediments increased as the disturbing intensity rose. In addition, less phosphorus was released in natural than anaerobic conditions. The amount of phosphorus released was elevated as temperature increased.