流域经济与海洋经济联动发展研究

陆海联动是发展海洋经济的新思维，也是解决沿海地区海陆经济发展和环境矛盾的一个有效措施，而流域是陆域上最接近海洋的部分，实施流域经济与海洋经济联动发展是实现陆海统筹发展的前提；促进流域 海洋联动发展、将内陆 流域 海洋互动作为区域经济发展思路是实现陆海联动的最佳途径。在分析流域经济与海洋经济联动发展的背景、意义、基础、效应等的基础上，以长江经济带为例，运用灰色关联分析方法，定量刻画了流域经济与海洋经济的关联程度，指出流域经济与海洋经济的关联度、海洋第三产业与流域第三产业关联度以及海洋主要产业与基本流域第二产业关联度等都非常高。最后从规划编制、建立流域 海洋互动产业网、发展海洋科技以及生态环境保护等方面，提出了促进流域经济与海洋经济联动发展的建议     

Natural and anthropogenic influences on heavy metals in airborne particles over the Korean Peninsula

Six monitoring stations were selected to characterize the variations in airborne concentrations of heavy metals in South Korea between 1999 and 2012. Three stations represented higher concentrations, and three represented lower concentrations. The heavy metals monitored at these stations include cadmium, chromium, copper, iron (Fe), lead, manganese (Mn), and nickel. During the study period, concentrations of heavy metals at many stations, including those around the Seoul metropolitan area, showed a decreasing trend. However, concentrations of Mn and Fe that are primarily of crustal origin increased at four of the six stations. Some stations were significantly affected by emissions from the local industrial complex (IC), and heavy metal concentrations at those stations were relatively high even in summer. Many heavy metal concentrations were higher in spring than in winter, but wintertime concentrations of Cr and Pb were higher at the stations representing lower concentrations due to the dominant influence of combustion emissions. At stations less affected by emissions from the IC, concentrations of Fe and Mn that are predominantly crustal in origin were higher in spring, when Asian dust (AD) events are most frequent. Although Mn concentrations were also high at stations within the steelmaking IC during AD periods, they were much higher during non-AD periods due to local emissions. Variations in heavy metal concentrations, which are heavily influenced by emissions from the IC, warrant individual analysis because their emission characteristics differ from those of typical cases.     

Environmental performance evaluation of large-scale municipal solid waste incinerators using data envelopment analysis

Limited to insufficient land resources, incinerators are considered in many countries such as Japan and Germany as the major technology for a waste management scheme capable of dealing with the increasing demand for municipal and industrial solid waste treatment in urban regions. The evaluation of these municipal incinerators in terms of secondary pollution potential, cost-effectiveness, and operational efficiency has become a new focus in the highly interdisciplinary area of production economics, systems analysis, and waste management. This paper aims to demonstrate the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) – a production economics tool – to evaluate performance-based efficiencies of 19 large-scale municipal incinerators in Taiwan with different operational conditions. A 4-year operational data set from 2002 to 2005 was collected in support of DEA modeling using Monte Carlo simulation to outline the possibility distributions of operational efficiency of these incinerators. Uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation provides a balance between simplifications of our analysis and the soundness of capturing the essential random features that complicate solid waste management systems. To cope with future challenges, efforts in the DEA modeling, systems analysis, and prediction of the performance of large-scale municipal solid waste incinerators under normal operation and special conditions were directed toward generating a compromised assessment procedure. Our research findings will eventually lead to the identification of the optimal management strategies for promoting the quality of solid waste incineration, not only in Taiwan, but also elsewhere in the world.     

基于置信区间的风暴潮灾害损失预警及对策研究

在运用因子分析法和熵值法对中国沿海11个省、自治区、直辖市进行风暴潮风险区划的基础上,运用置信区间法计算出各个区划内不同风暴潮等级对应的风暴潮经济损失、养殖业损失的置信区间。分析风暴潮置信区间结果,旨在有助于在增水等自然数据情况合理准确的预测基础上,对各个风险区划进行风险预警。并从防灾意识与产业结构调整两个方面提出了对策建议,力求使风暴潮造成的收入等经济损失最小化、保障沿海地区经济与社会的安全。     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

四川彭县银厂沟峡谷自然景观成因初探

四川省彭县银厂沟峡谷全长21公里,峡谷和原始森林保存完整。时隐时现的“彩虹”出现于峡谷两岸的瀑布上。区内自然景观丰富多彩。本文根据旅游地质调查工作成果,对自然景观的成因作了初步探讨。     

Lexicographic preference in biodiversity valuation: Tests of inconsistencies and willingness to pay

Previous contingent valuation (CV) studies on biodiversity have indicated that as much as one-quarter of the respondents show lexicographic preferences when facing biodiversity-money trade-offs. This behaviour is incompatible with welfare theory underlying CV, and thus questions the validity and reliability of the outcome of CV of changes in biodiversity. However, it is difficult from CV responses to distinguish between strict and modified lexicographic preferences, and those attaching a high value to biodiversity. This paper adds to the empirical evidence showing that what at first hand seems to represent strict lexicographic preferences is at most representing modified lexicographic preferences, and probably rather represent just high valuation of biodiversity. Data on both hypothetical and actual willingness to pay (WTP) from a CV study on biodiversity were used to perform tests of inconsistent attitudes to estimate the maximum share of non-compensatory preferences for biodiversity. The results show that there are very few respondents in the group that consistently state high preference for biodiversity preservation and show clear reluctance to trade-off biodiversity with other goods. However, this group also had higher WTP, both hypothetical and actual, than the reference group. This is consistent with exchange preferences and steep indifference curves. Thus, people with lexicographic preferences for biodiversity are probably less numerous than previously indicated.     

杭州啤酒厂清洁生产示范工程回顾评价和追踪评价

通过对杭州啤酒厂清洁生产示范工程的回顾评价和追踪评价，不仅可再现以往的成果，而且可了解该示范工程的进一步发展情况，有利于对示范工程长期效益进行评估和示范工程的成败进行总结，因此，这是一项务实的制度。     

关于环境保护的可持续发展

阐述了可持续性发展的定义和内涵，介绍了可持续性发展概念产生的历史背景和该概念不断完善和补充的过程。并论述了经济增长、环境保护与可持续性发展的关系，最后，提出了实施可持续发展战略应注意的一些问题。     

W_q方法及σ_H方法在华东地区中强震预报中的应用

应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标