System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Major Forest Types and the Evolution of Sustainable Forestry in China

In this article, we introduce China’s major forest types and discuss the historical development of forest management in China, including actions taken over the last decade toward achieving SMF. Major challenges are identified, and a strategy for SFM implementation in China is presented. China’s forests consist of a wide variety of types with distinctive distributional patterns shaped by complex topography and multiple climate regimes. How to manage this wide array of forest resources has challenged forest managers and policy-makers since the founding of the country. Excessive exploitation of China's forest resources from the 1950s to the late 1990s contributed to environmental problems and calamities, such as floods, soil erosion, and desertification. At the start of the new millennium, the Chinese government decided to shift its emphasis from timber production towards the achievement of sustainable forest management (SFM). With a series of endeavors such as the implementation of the “Six Key Forestry Projects” and the reform of forest tenure policies, and the adoption of a classification system for China's forests, a beginning has been made at reversing the trend of environmental degradation that occurred throughout the latter half of the last century. At the same time, huge challenges remain to be tackled for the development of forestry in China.     

Application of China’s National Forest Continuous Inventory Database

The maintenance of a timely, reliable and accurate spatial database on current forest ecosystem conditions and changes is essential to characterize and assess forest resources and support sustainable forest management. Information for such a database can be obtained only through a continuous forest inventory. The National Forest Continuous Inventory (NFCI) is the first level of China’s three-tiered inventory system. The NFCI is administered by the State Forestry Administration; data are acquired by five inventory institutions around the country. Several important components of the database include land type, forest classification and ageclass/ age-group. The NFCI database in China is constructed based on 5-year inventory periods, resulting in some of the data not being timely when reports are issued. To address this problem, a forest growth simulation model has been developed to update the database for years between the periodic inventories. In order to aid in forest plan design and management, a three-dimensional virtual reality system of forest landscapes for selected units in the database (compartment or sub-compartment) has also been developed based on Virtual Reality Modeling Language. In addition, a transparent internet publishing system for a spatial database based on open source WebGIS (UMN Map Server) has been designed and utilized to enhance public understanding and encourage free participation of interested parties in the development, implementation, and planning of sustainable forest management.     

Recovery of biomass wastes by hydrolysis in sub-critical water

The recovery of waste substances is important not only for the prevention of environmental issues, but also for the rational utilization of natural resources. Hydrolysis reaction in sub-critical water is a promising method for the treatment of organic wastes and has been attracting worldwide attention. In this paper, sub-critical water hydrolysis was employed as a method for producing amino acids, reducing sugars, bio-oil and gas fuels from biomass wastes. The current statuses of these useful chemicals production from biomass wastes by hydrolysis in sub-critical water were reviewed. The review indicates that sub-critical water hydrolysis can be an efficient process for recovering useful chemicals from biomass wastes. This method is renewable, sustainable, efficient, and safe for the environment.     

Formulation of criteria for pollution control on cement products produced from solid wastes in China

The process of producing cement products from solid waste can increase the level of pollutants in the cement products. Therefore, it is very important to establish a pollution control standard for cement products to protect the environment and human health. This paper presents acceptance limits for the availability of heavy metals in cement products which have been produced from solid wastes and explains how the limits have been calculated. The approach and method used to formulate these criteria were based on EN 12920. The typical exposure scenarios used in this paper involve concrete being used for drinking water supply pipelines and concrete pavements and are based on an analysis of typical applications of cement in China, and the potential for contact with water. The parameters of a tank test which was based on NEN 7375 were set in accordance with the environmental conditions of typical scenarios in China. Mechanisms controlling the release of heavy metals in concrete and a model for that release were obtained using the leaching test. Finally, based on acceptance criteria for drinking water and groundwater quality in China, limit values for the availability of heavy metals in concrete were calculated.     

垃圾渗滤液中氨氮去除技术评价及应用

垃圾卫生填埋过程中会产生有毒有害的垃圾渗滤液。垃圾渗滤液中的高氨氮对环境及后续生物处理过程造成了严重的影响。本文介绍了几种去除垃圾渗滤液氨氮的技术,并对这些技术进行了评估,分析了这些技术工程应用的特点,同时指出了垃圾渗滤液中氨氮去除技术工程应用的发展方向。     

Anomalous Ba/Ca signals associated with low temperature stresses in Porites corals from Daya Bay, northern South China Sea

Barium to calcium (Ba/Ca) ratio in corals has been considered as a useful geochemical proxy for upwelling, river flood and other oceanic processes. However, recent studies indicated that additional environmental or biological factors can influence the incorporation of Ba into coral skeletons. In this study, Ba/Ca ratios of two Porites corals collected from Daya Bay, northern South China Sea were analyzed. Ba/Ca signals in the two corals were ‘anomalous’ in comparison with Ba behaviors seen in other near-shore corals influenced by upwelling or riverine runoff. Our Ba/Ca profiles displayed similar and remarkable patterns characterized by low and randomly fluctuating background signals periodically interrupted by sharp and large synchronous peaks, clearly indicating an environmental forcing. Further analysis indicated that the Ba/Ca profiles were not correlated with previously claimed environmental factors such as precipitation, coastal upwelling, anthropogenic activities or phytoplankton blooms in other areas. The maxima of Ba/Ca appeared to occur in the period of Sr/Ca maxima, coinciding with the winter minimum temperatures, which suggests that the anomalous high Ba/Ca signals were related to winter-time low sea surface temperature. We speculated that the Ba/Ca peaks in corals of the Daya Bay were most likely the results of enrichment of Ba-rich particles in their skeletons when coral polyps retracted under the stresses of anomalous winter low temperatures. In this case, Ba/Ca ratio in relatively high-latitude corals can be a potential proxy for tracing the low temperature stress.     

全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对其它有机污染物在沉积物上吸附的影响

采用平衡振荡实验方法,研究了不同浓度的全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对两种有机污染物(硝基苯和菲)在沉积物上吸附的影响.结果表明,单组分PFOS在沉积物上是非线性吸附;与其它有机污染物共存时,随着PFOS浓度的升高,硝基苯的吸附量先减少后增加,而菲的吸附量则先增加后减少.PFOS对其它有机污染物吸附的影响规律与有机污染物的...     

葡多酚对口服乙醇小鼠肝细胞PCNA和Bcl-2表达的影响

为观察葡多酚(GPC)对小鼠乙醇性肝损伤的防护作用,将每天经口灌胃给予4 g·(kg·bw)-1乙醇的小鼠同时分别给予不同剂量的GPC,30 d后处死小鼠;取肝组织用MTT法检测各组小鼠肝细胞的增殖活性,用免疫组化法和图像分析方法检测PCNA和Bcl-2表达水平.结果显示:GPC高剂量组16 h的肝细胞增殖活性为0.4...     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in effluents from wastewater treatment plants and receiving streams in Tianjin, China

Surface water, suspended particulate matter, pore water, and sediment samples were collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Yongding New River, South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal, which receive most of wastewater from industrial city of Tianjin. PAH concentrations in effluent samples of wastewater treatment plants (WTP) discharging into the South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal were quantified for the first time. The results showed that the discharge of the WTPs recently only contributed to the PAH contamination in the canals near the outlets of the WTPs. PAH levels in sediments of the streams were greatly higher than those in soils by riverbank probably due to receiving large amounts of untreated wastewater. Unusually high benz[a] anthracene concentration strongly influenced the seasonal and spatial variation of total PAH concentrations in South Drainage Canal. Paired samples t test of ??Nap, Fl, Phe, Fluo and ??Nap, Phe, Fluo, Chry concentrations, which were dominant components in the air samples from non-heating and heating season, respectively, in the suspended particulate matters from the streams showed that PAH source from air deposition was more important for Yongding New River than that for South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal. Source apportionment based on PAH profiles indicated that coal combustion was the major PAH contamination source, and coke oven sources and wood combustion also contributed to the PAH contamination of the streams. This was further indicated by organic petrography analysis.