System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Theoretical equation of gas desorption of particle coal under the non-uniform pressure condition and its analytical solution

Based on the second Fick’s law, the theoretical equation of gas desorption of particle coal under the non-uniform pressure condition was developed in this paper. The analytical solution of the theoretical equation and the method of gas desorption quantity of particle coal under non-uniform pressure condition were obtained.     

系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

温压装药安全性分析及数据管理系统

温压炸药作为一种较新型的武器弹药,学界对其研究主要集中在弹药性能和毁伤效果的提高上,缺乏对温压炸药装药安全性的分析.温压炸药装药又是一项极具危险性的作业工艺,本文针对温压武器装药系统,采用事故树分析方法对温压装药进行危险性分析,提出温压装药火灾爆炸安全模式,之后由反应温压武器及其制品的危险性能和用于对其生产、储运系统进行安全评价数学模型出发,编程建立了一个实用、系统的温压武器装药安全数据管理信息系统,为温压武器生产企业的实际装药安全生产管理、危险控制,提供一定的理论依据与数据支持.     

水分散封闭异氰酸酯研究进展

封闭异氰酸酯由于亲水性较差难以分散于水中,通过亲水改性可以使其具有优异的水分散性,但是较高的解封温度及成本使其难以投入实际应用.对水分散封闭异氰酸酯的研究进展进行综述,并对其应用进行了说明,从实际出发对水分散封闭异氰酸酯的发展趋势做出展望.     

排烟风量变化对隧道集中排烟效率的影响

隧道集中排烟系统的排烟风量是影响火灾烟气抽排效果的关键参数.量化评价烟气抽排效果有利于排烟风机的优化选型.基于FDS的火灾燃烧过程的化学反应式得到隧道火灾烟气的质量生产速率,提出了排烟效率和排烟效能两个表征集中排烟系统烟控能力的计算公式.用基于大涡模拟的FDS软件对隧道火灾烟气进行数值模拟计算.对比研究表明,随着排烟风量的增大,机械排烟效率增大,机械排烟效能反而降低.风机排烟风量增大使多个排烟阀处发生吸穿现象,但风流短路并未降低整个排烟系统的排烟效率.根据研究结果给出了合理的风机排烟风量设计区间,确定三阳路道路隧道集中排烟系统的最佳排烟风量为170 m3/s,对应的排烟效率为96.3％.     

新型多功能森林消防人员睡袋的研究

针对目前我国在森林草原防火工作中,森林消防人员在森林火灾扑救中携行装备落后、繁重的状况,为保护扑火队员免受寒冻之苦,减轻单兵负荷,提高扑火效率,根据我国森林消防工作特点和实际需要,研制出了森林消防多功能睡袋,该实用新型睡袋具有多种功能、多种用途,可用作单人睡袋、背包、担架和吊床。设计合理,使用方便、快捷,质量轻,便于携带,可折叠成背包,是适合于森林消防人员使用的野外装备用具。     

Effect of spark duration on explosion parameters of methane/air mixtures in closed vessels

The paper outlines an experimental study on influence of the spark duration and the vessel volume on explosion parameters of premixed methane–air mixtures in the closed explosion vessels. The main findings from these experiments are: For the weaker ignition the spark durations in the range from 6.5 μs to 40.6 μs had little impact on explosion parameters for premixed methane–air mixtures in the 5 L vessel or 20 L vessel; For the same ignitions and volume fractions of methane in air the explosion pressures and the flame temperatures in both vessels of 5 L and 20 L were approximately the same, but the rates of pressure rises in both vessels of 5 L and 20 L were different; The explosion indexes obtained from the measured pressure time histories for both vessels of 5 L and 20 L were approximately equal; For the weaker ignition with the fixed spark duration 45 μs the ignition energies in the range from 54 mJ to 430 mJ had little impact on the explosion parameters; For the same ignition and the volume fractions of methane in air, the vessel volumes had a significant impact on the flame temperatures near the vessel wall; The flame temperatures near the vessel wall decreased as the vessel volumes increased.     

分析裂解技术在砂型铸造空气污染控制中的应用研究

采用分析裂解技术模拟砂型铸造过程中原材料的热解过程,并采用GC-FID/MS等对分析裂解产生的挥发性有机物与危险性空气污染物进行了分析.通过与实际铸造过程中产生的空气污染物的对比发现,分析裂解与实际铸造过程中产生的空气污染物在种类与构成上都十分相似,主要由苯、甲苯和酚组成.此外,采用分析裂解技术比较不同原材料的空气污染物产生量,可以准确地预测使用不同原材料进行铸造生产时的空气污染物相对变化趋势.分析裂解与实际铸造的空气污染物检测结果均表明,与传统的酚醛树脂黏合剂相比,采用新型的无萘型酚醛树脂黏合剂进行铸造,可减少50%以上的多环芳烃污染物;采用动物蛋白质胶型黏合剂可减少90%以上的危险性空气污染物.与传统的在试验性铸造厂进行小规模实际铸造,并对空气污染物进行检测以获取原材料空气污染物清单的方法相比,分析裂解技术可以更为快速和准确地建立原材料的空气污染物清单,比较不同原材料的空气污染物的相对变化趋势,从而为铸造企业选用合适的清洁原材料以及新型清洁原材料的研究和改进提供理论指导和科学依据.     

名古屋废物减量化对我国污染减排的启示

日本国名古屋市以削减废物最终处置量为目的,积极采取各种减量化措施,取得了良好的减排效果,本文详细介绍了名古屋市废物减量化措施,并借鉴其成功经验,结合我国污染减排工作实际,提出了我国应从建立完善的法律法规体系、强化政府的主导地位、提高科研与产业化能力、加大信息公开力度、支持公众参与等方面积极促进污染减排工作的全面实施。