Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

Contamination and vertical distribution of As,Cd, Cr,Cu, Pb,Tl, and Zn in paddy soil irrigated with untreated leachate from tailings retention ponds

The contamination and vertical distribution of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Tl, and Zn in paddy soil irrigated with untreated leachate from the tailings retention pond were investigated. As, Cr, Cu, and Zn were slightly contaminated in the surface soil and hence their vertical distribution was not obvious. However, Cd and Pb were highly contaminated in the surface soil, while their concentrations decreased with depth, being negatively correlated with pH and positively with total organic matter. Tl was considerably contaminated in the surface soil and a V-shaped vertical distribution was observed where the concentration increased to a maximum at about 30 cm depth and decreased thereafter. The findings revealed that the regular irrigation with untreated leachate from the tailings retention ponds could cause considerable contamination of Cd, Pb, and Tl, and thus tailings should be stringently treated before disposal to minimize their potential environmental impacts on the surroundings.     

中国环境基准研究重点方向探讨

环境基准是环境标准的科学依据,在国家环境质量评价和风险管理体系中处于基础地位。它主要是依据特定对象在环境介质中的暴露数据,以及与环境要素的剂量效应关系数据,通过科学判断得出的,涉及环境化学、毒理学、生态学、流行病学、生物学和风险评估等前沿学科领域。国家环境基准研究是一个长期的系统工程,本文基于环境基准研究的学科特点和国际前沿,结合国家科技需求和相关领域的研究现状,综合分析并提出了未来中国环境基准研究的重点研究方向:1)环境基准的理论与方法学;2)环境基准基础数据库;3)基准目标污染物的筛选甄别和优先排序技术;4)水体营养物基准;5)生物测试与毒性评价技术;6)人体暴露评价理论与相关技术;7)环境基准的审核和校对;8)环境基准与标准转化理论及其对环境管理支撑技术。本文从环境基准学科发展的角度,阐述了与环境基准研究紧密相关的8个重点研究方面的国内外研究进展、关键科学问题以及未来重点研究内容。同时指出,这些重要的研究方向是环境基准研究的根本,未来环境基准的长期战略发展必将是建立在各个重要方向长足发展的基础之上,环境基准研究也必带动这些方向的共同蓬勃发展,为环境地球化学、毒理学、生态学等学科领域发展注入活力。     

被动加标在水生生态风险评价中的应用——以多氯联苯分配系数的测定为例

准确的水生生态风险评价需要可靠的毒性数据,而其获取要求在一定时间范围内,水体中污染物的浓度保持恒定。对疏水性有机污染物进行水体生物毒性测试时,通常采用有机溶剂加标,然而该方式可能因为污染物的挥发和降解、容器壁吸附、生物摄取等问题,水体中污染物浓度持续下降,导致污染物的浓度-效应关系难以明确。近期为了克服这些问题,被动加标用于替代溶剂加标,通过污染物在加标体系中平衡分配来维持精确和恒定的水体浓度,同时还可通过测定加标聚合物中污染物的浓度来监测水体浓度。首先介绍了被动加标方法及其材料选择,讨论了该方法在生态风险评价中的主要应用,包括分配系数的测定、体外细胞测试、体内生物积累及毒性测试,以及沉积物毒性评价等。然后,以测定代表污染物多氯联苯在聚二甲基硅氧烷与水间的分配系数为例,详细说明被动加标的操作流程。最后,讨论了被动加标方法的优缺点,并对其在水生生态风险中的应用前景进行了展望。     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

Geostatistical analysis and risk assessment on soil total nitrogen and total soil phosphorus in the Dongting Lake plain area, China

Nonpoint-source pollution and water body eutrophication have become increasing concerns for scientists and policymakers. Nitrogen and phosphorus affect environmental pollution, especially lake eutrophication. To assess the environmental risk of soil total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) pollution, a typical ecological unit of Dongting Lake plain was selected as the experimental site. To verify the stationary of the data, a moving windows technique was adopted. Our results showed that Box-Cox transformation achieved normality in the data set and dampened the effect of outliers. The best theoretical model for semivariogram of TN and TP was a spherical model. The ordinary kriging estimates of TN and TP concentrations were mapped. The integrative comparisons of semivariogram parameters with different trends to the kriging prediction errors of TN and TP indicated that the two-order trend is preferable. Kriging SDs provided valuable information that will increase the accuracy of TN and TP mapping. The probability kriging method is useful to assess the risk of N and P pollution by providing the conditional probability of N and P concentrations exceeding the threshold concentrations of 3.2 and 1.05 g/kg, respectively. The probability distribution of TN and TP at different levels will be helpful to conduct risk assessment, optimize fertilization, and control the pollution of N and P.     

Water Hyacinth in China: A Sustainability Science-Based Management Framework

The invasion of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) has resulted in enormous ecological and economic consequences worldwide. Although the spread of this weed in Africa, Australia, and North America has been well documented, its invasion in China is yet to be fully documented. Here we report that since its introduction about seven decades ago, water hyacinth has infested many water bodies across almost half of China’s territory, causing a decline of native biodiversity, alteration of ecosystem services, deterioration of aquatic environments, and spread of diseases affecting human health. Water hyacinth infestations have also led to enormous economic losses in China by impeding water flows, paralyzing navigation, and damaging irrigation and hydroelectricity facilities. To effectively control the rampage of water hyacinth in China, we propose a sustainability science-based management framework that explicitly incorporates principles from landscape ecology and Integrated Pest Management. This framework emphasizes multiple-scale long-term monitoring and research, integration among different control techniques, combination of control with utilization, and landscape-level adaptive management. Sustainability science represents a new, transdisciplinary paradigm that integrates scientific research, technological innovation, and socioeconomic development of particular regions. Our proposed management framework is aimed to broaden the currently dominant biological control-centered view in China and to illustrate how sustainability science can be used to guide the research and management of water hyacinth.     

用清洁生产的理念防治农业污染的初步探讨

农业发展面临的农业污染问题,已成为制约农业可持续发展的＂瓶颈＂.农业污染问题已经成为影响农村经济发展,以及农村社会和谐发展的重要因素之一.在论述农业清洁生产涵义的基础上,探讨了农业清洁生产防治农业污染问题.以新疆绿洲农业为例,论述了农业污染现状及发展农业清洁生产的必要性,分析探讨了发展农业清洁生产存在的问题和障碍,并提出了对策和建议.