System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs

This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development.     

Solid waste management in European countries: a review of systems analysis techniques

In the past few decades, solid waste management systems in Europe have involved complex and multi-faceted trade-offs among a plethora of technological alternatives, economic instruments, and regulatory frameworks. These changes resulted in various environmental, economic, social, and regulatory impacts in waste management practices which not only complicate regional policy analysis, but also reshape the paradigm of global sustainable development. Systems analysis, a discipline that harmonizes these integrated solid waste management strategies, has been uniquely providing interdisciplinary support for decision making in this area. Systems engineering models and system assessment tools, both of which enrich the analytical framework of waste management, were designed specifically to handle particular types of problems. Though how to smooth out the barriers toward achieving appropriate systems synthesis and integration of these models and tools to aid in the solid waste management schemes prevalent in European countries still remains somewhat uncertain. This paper conducts a thorough literature review of models and tools illuminating possible overlapped boundaries in waste management practices in European countries and encompassing the pros and cons of waste management practices in each member state of the European Union. Whereas the Southern European Union (EU) countries need to develop further measures to implement more integrated solid waste management and reach EU directives, the Central EU countries need models and tools with which to rationalize their technological choices and management strategies. Nevertheless, considering systems analysis models and tools in a synergistic way would certainly provide opportunities to develop better solid waste management strategies leading to conformity with current standards and foster future perspectives for both the waste management industry and government agencies in European Union.     

Development of Customized Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Boreal Forests of Northeastern China

Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.     

基于动态SDG模型的间歇过程HAZOP方法研究

危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）是目前应用最为广泛的安全评价方法之一。然而,通过对国内外已实施的生产过程安全评价方法及相关计算机辅助安全评价软件调查发现,目前对间歇过程HAZOP分析的研究还较少。因此,将Petfi网与符号定向图（SDG）相结合,以SDG模型为主,Petri网模型为辅,建立专门针对间歇过程HAZOP分析的动态SDG模型。由于Petfi网可以准确描述间歇过程的离散事件特性,而SDG能够恰当描述间歇过程的连续特性,二者结合使该模型成为间歇过程HAZOP分析的有力工具。     

安庆市对外服务能力发展分析——基于城市经济活动基本部分扩展的视角

城市的全部经济活动可分为基本活动部分和非基本活动部分.城市的基本活动部分是城市对外服务部分,也是城市发展的主要内部驱动力.以安庆市为例,以2001-2007年城市经济活动基本部分的扩展为切入点,用城市经济活动基本部门从业人数的扩展描述城市外向功能量的发展,再用城市流强度量化城市对外服务功能.结果表明,安庆市近几年对外服务能力呈明显增长态势,城市经济活动基本部分的扩展决定了城市对外服务能力的增长,并且城市第二产业的对外服务能力较强.     

A critical exploration of blood and environmental chromium concentration among oral cancer patients in an oral cancer prevalent area of Taiwan

The growing incidence of oral cancer (OC) in Taiwan has become a crucial public health concern. In particular, Changhua, a county in central Taiwan, carries persistently high OC incidence rate, with an alarmingly high male/female ratio of OC incidence. Previous epidemiological studies had found that the incidence is spatially correlated with the level of soil content to certain heavy metals in the central Taiwan area. Soil and the human body both intake environmental heavy metals, which can be absorbed through various ways. The soil metal concentration is an index of possible environmental exposure to heavy metal, and the blood metal concentration somewhat reflects the level of the exposure on the human body. Metallic carcinogen is likely to generate free radicals and play a role in many cancers, and many studies had reported that environmental exposure to heavy metals is an important risk factor for developing cancer. Studies on animals showed that chronic intake of chromium (Cr) could induce OC. This study aims to explore the association between the Cr concentration in the farm soil and in the blood of OC patients. We recruited 79 OC patients from Changhua County, with their lifestyle being adjusted in regression analysis. The results showed that the Cr concentration in the blood of OC patients is significantly higher than the background value, and is positively associated with the Cr concentration in the soil surrounding their residence (p-value < 0.023). Because Changhua County is only with moderate prevalence of the known OC habitual risk factors, an environmental factor related to heavy metal Cr exposure is suspected. Future investigations may verify the causal relation between Cr and OC.     

Weak indirect effects inherent to nitrogen biogeochemical cycling within anthropogenic ecosystems: A network environ analysis

Indirect effects are assumed to be the major causes of the complexity and stability of ecological networks. The complexity of urban-rural complexes (URCs) could also be attributed to the indirect effects associated with human activities. No studies, however, have quantified the strength of indirect effects in relation to urban biogeochemistry. A network environ analysis (NEA) was used for this study to investigate and compare indirect effects in relation to the nitrogen (N) cycling networks of 22 natural ecosystems and five URCs. Results show that indirect effects were proven to be weak for URC N cycling networks (accounting for only ∼2% of the overall effects measured in natural ecosystems). The weak indirect effects found provide a counterexample for the hypothesis that indirect effects are in fact the dominant components of biogeochemical networks. It also implies that human activity in itself does not always raise the complexity of ecological processes as previously suggested. Weak indirect effects also lead to perturbation fragility for URC N cycles (where the decay rate is greater in comparison to natural ecosystems by a factor of 13). In order to improve the robustness and efficiency of URC biogeochemical cycling, a knockout analysis was carried out. By comparing results after removing single interactions between natural ecosystems and URCs it was found that the loss of indirect effects require cooperative strategies to optimize N cycling networks within URCs.     

人工湿地植物生物质资源能源化利用潜力评估

通过测定不同人工湿地植物的纤维素组分和热值,并采用NaOH–酶解工艺研究不同人工湿地植物水解液组分,对在人工湿地技术体系中起重要作用的湿地植物能源化利用潜力进行系统评估.结果显示,15种人工湿地植物的纤维素含量在19.78%～36.9%之间,半纤维素含量在4.51%～19.67%之间,木质素含量在10.79%～20.47%之间,具有与玉米秸秆相当的热值,其热值在14.002～17.839 MJ/kg之间.在NaOH–酶解工艺条件下,不同人工湿地植物水解液中存在5种糖类组分,主要为葡萄糖和木糖.研究表明,人工湿地植物是一种较好的生物质资源,可通过生物质固体成型燃料技术、沼气技术和燃料乙醇技术加以利用,进而建立人工湿地植物生物质资源能源化藕联利用模式.图2表2参22