System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs

This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development.     

Solid waste management in European countries: a review of systems analysis techniques

In the past few decades, solid waste management systems in Europe have involved complex and multi-faceted trade-offs among a plethora of technological alternatives, economic instruments, and regulatory frameworks. These changes resulted in various environmental, economic, social, and regulatory impacts in waste management practices which not only complicate regional policy analysis, but also reshape the paradigm of global sustainable development. Systems analysis, a discipline that harmonizes these integrated solid waste management strategies, has been uniquely providing interdisciplinary support for decision making in this area. Systems engineering models and system assessment tools, both of which enrich the analytical framework of waste management, were designed specifically to handle particular types of problems. Though how to smooth out the barriers toward achieving appropriate systems synthesis and integration of these models and tools to aid in the solid waste management schemes prevalent in European countries still remains somewhat uncertain. This paper conducts a thorough literature review of models and tools illuminating possible overlapped boundaries in waste management practices in European countries and encompassing the pros and cons of waste management practices in each member state of the European Union. Whereas the Southern European Union (EU) countries need to develop further measures to implement more integrated solid waste management and reach EU directives, the Central EU countries need models and tools with which to rationalize their technological choices and management strategies. Nevertheless, considering systems analysis models and tools in a synergistic way would certainly provide opportunities to develop better solid waste management strategies leading to conformity with current standards and foster future perspectives for both the waste management industry and government agencies in European Union.     

Development of Customized Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Boreal Forests of Northeastern China

Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.     

A critical exploration of blood and environmental chromium concentration among oral cancer patients in an oral cancer prevalent area of Taiwan

The growing incidence of oral cancer (OC) in Taiwan has become a crucial public health concern. In particular, Changhua, a county in central Taiwan, carries persistently high OC incidence rate, with an alarmingly high male/female ratio of OC incidence. Previous epidemiological studies had found that the incidence is spatially correlated with the level of soil content to certain heavy metals in the central Taiwan area. Soil and the human body both intake environmental heavy metals, which can be absorbed through various ways. The soil metal concentration is an index of possible environmental exposure to heavy metal, and the blood metal concentration somewhat reflects the level of the exposure on the human body. Metallic carcinogen is likely to generate free radicals and play a role in many cancers, and many studies had reported that environmental exposure to heavy metals is an important risk factor for developing cancer. Studies on animals showed that chronic intake of chromium (Cr) could induce OC. This study aims to explore the association between the Cr concentration in the farm soil and in the blood of OC patients. We recruited 79 OC patients from Changhua County, with their lifestyle being adjusted in regression analysis. The results showed that the Cr concentration in the blood of OC patients is significantly higher than the background value, and is positively associated with the Cr concentration in the soil surrounding their residence (p-value < 0.023). Because Changhua County is only with moderate prevalence of the known OC habitual risk factors, an environmental factor related to heavy metal Cr exposure is suspected. Future investigations may verify the causal relation between Cr and OC.     

Weak indirect effects inherent to nitrogen biogeochemical cycling within anthropogenic ecosystems: A network environ analysis

Indirect effects are assumed to be the major causes of the complexity and stability of ecological networks. The complexity of urban-rural complexes (URCs) could also be attributed to the indirect effects associated with human activities. No studies, however, have quantified the strength of indirect effects in relation to urban biogeochemistry. A network environ analysis (NEA) was used for this study to investigate and compare indirect effects in relation to the nitrogen (N) cycling networks of 22 natural ecosystems and five URCs. Results show that indirect effects were proven to be weak for URC N cycling networks (accounting for only ∼2% of the overall effects measured in natural ecosystems). The weak indirect effects found provide a counterexample for the hypothesis that indirect effects are in fact the dominant components of biogeochemical networks. It also implies that human activity in itself does not always raise the complexity of ecological processes as previously suggested. Weak indirect effects also lead to perturbation fragility for URC N cycles (where the decay rate is greater in comparison to natural ecosystems by a factor of 13). In order to improve the robustness and efficiency of URC biogeochemical cycling, a knockout analysis was carried out. By comparing results after removing single interactions between natural ecosystems and URCs it was found that the loss of indirect effects require cooperative strategies to optimize N cycling networks within URCs.     

UV-B辐射增强对不同大麦品种生理特性的影响

通过大田试验,研究了UV-B辐射增强对不同生育期3个大麦(Hordeum vulgare)品种光合和蒸腾生理特性的影响。试验设对照(自然光)和辐射增强(辐照强度14.4 kJ.m-2.d-1)2个UV-B辐射水平。结果表明,UV-B辐射增强明显抑制大麦光合作用和蒸腾作用。与对照相比,UV-B辐射增强可降低叶片叶绿素含量、气孔导度、净光合速率和蒸腾速率,但对胞间CO2摩尔分数基本没有影响。不同大麦品种对UV-B辐射增强响应的敏感性存在差异,单2号对UV-B辐射增强较为敏感,而苏啤4号较不敏感。     

能源消费与中国可持续发展——以Hartwick准则为视角

能源是一种重要的生产要素,与经济可持续发展的关系密不可分.经济学家Hartwick于1977年提出了Hartwick准则,具有很高的理论价值.通过引入Hartwick准则及其相关理论成果,结合我国能源利用与经济发展的实际情况,在理论和实践两个方面研究能源枯竭对经济可持续发展的影响,从而为解决我国可持续发展中遇到的能源瓶颈得出一些研究结论和政策建议.     

An integrated approach: managing resources for post-disaster reconstruction

A lack of resources for post-disaster housing reconstruction significantly limits the prospects for successful recovery. Following the earthquake in Wenchuan, China, in May 2008, housing reconstruction was not immune to resource shortages and price inflation. Difficulties in sourcing materials and labour considerably impeded recovery. This paper provides evidence of the resourcing bottlenecks inherent in the post-Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction process. Its aim is to present an integrated planning framework for managing resources for post-disaster housing rebuilding. The results are drawn from in-field surveys that highlight the areas where stakeholders need to concentrate effort, including revising legislation and policy, enhancing capacity for rebuilding in the construction industry, strengthening the transportation network, restructuring market mechanisms, and incorporating environmental considerations into overall planning. Although the case study presented here is country-specific, it is hoped that the findings provide a basis for future research to identify resourcing constraints and solutions in other disaster contexts.