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N. H. Ravindranath Rajiv K. Chaturvedi N. V. Joshi R. Sukumar Jayant Sathaye 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):211-227
Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National
level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change
are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m2/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian
forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based
on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially
on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across
different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However,
under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The
cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years
2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation
potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential
increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108. 相似文献
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Introduction
Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation.Method
The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.Results
The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations.Conclusions
The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. 相似文献828.
Mayhew DR Simpson HM Wood KM Lonero L Clinton KM Johnson AG 《Journal of Safety Research》2011,42(4):267-275
Introduction
A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.Study 1
A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.Results
Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.Study 2
A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.Results
The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.Impact on industry
These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs. 相似文献829.
Objective
The objective of this study was to evaluate repeated patient handling injuries following a multi-factor ergonomic intervention program among health care workers.Methods
This was a quasi-experimental study which had an intervention group and a non-randomized control group. Data were collected from six hospitals in Saskatchewan, Canada from September 1, 2001 to December 1, 2006.Results
A total of 1,480 individuals who had a previous injury were eligible for the study. Medium and small size hospitals in the intervention group had significantly fewer repeated injuries than in the control group. Multivariate analysis showed that the intervention group had 38.1% lower odds of having repeated injury compared to the control group, after adjusting for hospital size.Conclusions
The work-related repeated injury after a multi-factor intervention program was reduced. The synergistic relationships between components of multi-factor intervention and applicability of injury prevention programs to different settings need to be further explored.Impact on Industry
Implementing a multi-factor program with the right equipment and training can lower the risk of injury among health care workers. 相似文献830.