Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

The use of nanovermiculite catalyst in the study of removal of the organic load and degradation of atrazine via ozone process in RPB reactor

Abstract

The main objective of this study is the degradation of a synthetic solution of atrazine by a modified vermiculite catalyzed ozonation, in a rotating packed bed (RPB) reactor. A 0.5?L RPB reactor was used to perform the experiments, using a Central Composite Design (CCD) response surface to construct the quadratic model based on the factors: pH, catalyst concentration and reactor rotation frequency. The response variable was the removal of the organic load measured in terms of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD). After the complete quadratic model was constructed through the response surface, the COD degradation process had an optimal removal of 41% under the following conditions: pH 8.0, rotation of 1150?rpm and catalyst concentration 0.66?g L^?1.     

Attenuation potentials of royal jelly against hydroxyurea-induced infertility through inhibiting oxidation and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines in male rats

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Hydroxyurea (HDU), a class of antineoplastic drugs, has a powerful efficacy in the treatment of several types of malignancies. However, it has...     

Petroleum and hazardous chemical spills in Newark Bay, New Jersey, USA from 1982 to 1991

Newark Bay, New Jersey, is particularly vulnerable to ecological damage from petroleum and chemical spills, as a result of the enclosed nature and shallow depth of the bay, the high frequency of shipping traffic, and the numerous chemical and petroleum transfer terminals located alongs its shores. To evaluate the potential impacts to the natural resources of this coastal estuarine ecosystem, chemical and petroleum accidents reported to the US Coast Guard (USCG) between 1982 and 1991 were compiled to determine the frequency and volume of these incidents in Newark Bay and in each of its major tributaries. Records obtained from the USCG National Response Center's computerized database indicated that more than 1453 accidental incidents, resulting in the release of more than 18 million US gallons of hazardous materials and petroleum products, occurred throughout Newark Bay during this period of time. The bulk of the materials released to the aquatic environment consisted of petroleum products, specifically No. 6 Fuel Oil (103 spills, 12 829 272 US gal) and gasoline (207 spills, 48 816 US gal). The majority of the reported incidents occurred in the Arthur Kill and its tributaries, as well as in the Kill Van Kull and the Passaic River. The results of this study indicated that the accidental discharge of petroleum and hazardous chemicals represents a significant source of chemical pollution in Newark Bay. Based on the frequency of spills and the volume of materials released to the aquatic environment, it is likely that these events are having a deleterious effect on the Newark Bay ecosystem.     

Assessment of hazards associated with pesticide container disposal and of rinsing procedures as a means of enabling disposal of pesticide containers in sanitary landfills

To study problems associated with pesticide container disposal, a small vegetable production area in southwestern Ontario, the Thedford Marsh, was selected as the site for a model study. A container collection system was organized during the 1981 growing season, with collections being made from the ca. 50 growers on the marsh twice each month. In addition to the regular collection program a cleanup service for empty pesticide containers stored on farms or discarded on public lands also was initiated. More than 3600 containers were collected and disposed of at an authorized landfill site. Ca. 2/3 were herbicide containers, ca. 1/4 were insecticide containers, and 3% were fungicide containers. Unrinsed containers contained as much as 5 1/2% of the original contents with an average of 1%. Containers rinsed by the triple rinse method or using rinsing devices (E-Z Rinse, JET Rinse) generally contained less than 0.1% of the original content. Some formulations presented rinsing problems due to settling and caking. The results indicated that, while unacceptable quantities of pesticide residues remain in unrinsed containers, most rinsed pesticide containers will be acceptable for disposal at municipal sanitary landfill sites.