前苏联的地震危险性

<正> 1 地震危险性评定历史Gorshkov(1937)所汇编的前苏联大陆最早的地震区划图.是世界上最早的这类图之一。这是最早的地震危险性预测图,因为它标识出了潜在地震危险地区:不仅已知历史地震的地区,而且还根据较早地震地区推断“地质相似区”。1957、1968和1978年的正式建筑规范采用了一些成功的地震区划图。许多年以来,苏联领土的所有地震区划工作均是在E.F.Savarenskiy,S.L.Solviev和M.A.Sadovskiy指导下,地震与地震工程部门委员会指挥和协调下进行的。该机构出版了一部有关震源、方法、结果和参考文献方面的完整的说明书(ICSEE,1980)。Bune等(1974)和Reisner(1985)阐述了影响地震区划实践的思想史。通过对地震危险性预测结果与10年或20年后观测的进行比较,使得地震区划的定性控制理论得到了发展(Mokrushina和Shebalin,1982,1991)。分析了各个地区和整个区域的预报错误、     

厄瓜多尔的地震危险性

<正> 1 地震危险性评定历史在厄瓜多尔460年的历史上,地震扮演了一个很重要的角色,大约有8万人在地震灾害中丧生,其中包括1797年的Riobamba地震中死亡的4万人和1868年Ibarra地震中死亡的2.5万余人。在20世纪前,全国的总人口还不到100万,由此可知,地震死亡人数比例之大。随着仪器地震学的问世,本世纪在厄瓜多尔的俯冲带至少监测到六个Ms>7.5级的地震。其中最大的一次是1906年的震级Ms=8.8地震(Kanamori,McNally,1982),最近的一次大地震(1987年3月5日,Ms=6.9)发生在安第斯山脉的东部,这次地震严重地影响了厄瓜多尔唯一的输油管线,使其关闭六个月之久。由于整个国家收入的60％靠原油出口,为此这次破坏性地震对厄瓜多尔的经济产生了严重的副作用。尽管地震灾害的历史悠久,但直到本世     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

Flood area and damage estimation in Zhejiang,China

A GIS-based method to estimate flood area and damage is presented in this paper, which is oriented to developing countries like China, where labor is readily available for GIS data collecting, and tools such as, HEC-GeoRAS might not be readily available. At present local authorities in developing countries are often not predisposed to pay for commercial GIS platforms. To calculate flood area, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and a seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flooding is described. The flood damage estimation is calculated in raster format by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and relating this to other socioeconomic data. Several measures used to improve the geometric accuracy and computing efficiency are presented. The management issues related to the application of this method, including the cost-effectiveness of approximate method in practice and supplementing two technical lines (self-programming and adopting commercial GIS software) to each other, are also discussed. The applications show that this approach has practical significance to flood fighting and control in developing countries like China.     

Measures of the EU Agri-Environmental Protection Scheme (GAEPS) and their impacts on the visual acceptability of Finnish agricultural landscapes

As a member of the European Union, Finland has committed itself to creating an environmental policy for agriculture. The aims of this study were to evaluate visual impacts of the General Agri-Environmental Protection Scheme (GAEPS) and Supplementary Protection Scheme (SPS) and general attitudes towards some activities in those policies and furthermore to examine the suitability of the method of Alho et al. (2001) for the scenic beauty assessment. The study areas consisted of three original, untreated, and 15 modified rural landscapes representing a variety of different activities. The scenic beauty of the landscapes was evaluated through pairwise comparisons of the responses of 68 people. Furthermore, attitudes towards environmental values, water protection, buffer strips and subsidies to agriculture were obtained. The respondents found the maintained buffer strips more pleasing than unmaintained strips and considered that the quality of watercourses was increased by buffer strips along them. A suitable width for the buffer strip along main ditches, brooks and waterways was regarded, on average, to be wider than the current recommendations. Although the opinions of farmers were basically in line with the existing recommendations, farmers' opininons on the second and third most important effects of buffer strips, an increase in weeds and a decrease in cultivated land, clearly differed from those of the other respondents. Afforestation, lack of building maintenance and abandoned fields were considered to be the most important factors impacting rural landscapes. This study indicates that the Finnish Agri-Environmental Protection Schemes have had positive impacts on the visual quality of landscapes. Attitudes towards other impacts are contradictory. This study also showed the improvement of the Alho et al. (2001) method in these kinds of studies relative to other methods of pairwise comparisons.     

Preparation and implementation of seven ecological compensation plans for Dutch highways

First-generation compensation plans (CPs) for Dutch highway projects have been evaluated with respect to implementation of the compensation principle (1993), which aims to counterbalance the adverse ecological impacts of large-scale development projects. Decision-making on the seven projects took place between 1993 and 1995. Specifically, we considered: (a) the processes employed to prepare and implement the compensation plans; (b) the methods used to identify, plan, and execute the compensation measures; and (c) the results yielded by these methods. We conclude that the CPs were prepared fairly uniformly, particularly in terms of the processes and methodologies used to derive compensation measures. Five of the seven CPs had become operational by 2001 and initial experience is now being gained on land acquisition and transfer of compensation sites to nature conservation trusts. Further progress of CPs is likely to be seriously hampered by growing demand for land for development in general and associated increases in real estate prices. Several problems are addressed and recommendations made with respect to: (a) developing a legal basis for the compensation principle; (b) the relationship with re-allotment projects; (c) estimation of compensation costs; (d) an annual bias of CP budgets to account for rising costs; (e) contingency measures; and (f) criteria for CP (ex-post) evaluation.     

Characterisation of DNA probes for the analysis of metallothionein gene expression in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus)

DNA probes have been developed for subsequent use in monitoring the exposure of animals to heavy metal pollution in terrestrial environments using metallothionein (MT) gene expression in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). Three different bank vole sequences were characterised corresponding to the cDNA and the genomic DNA for MT-I and the genomic DNA for MT-II. Nucleotide sequence analysis indicates that the coding sequences of the bank vole MT-I and MT-II genes exhibit a very high degree of similarity (greater than 92%) to the corresponding genes of the Chinese hamster, the mouse and the rat. In common with other mammalian MT genes, both the MT-I and MT-II genes in the bank vole are interrupted by two introns, which are at identical positions as those in other rodent MT genes; furthermore, the sizes of these introns are similar to those in other rodents with the first intron being larger than the second and those in the MT-I gene being larger than those in the MT-II gene. The predicted amino acid sequence for the proteins shows that both proteins contain 20 cysteine residues at positions identical to those in other known mammalian MTs. The availability of these DNA sequences now provides a good opportunity to investigate MT gene expression and possible gene amplification in bank voles exposed to metal pollution.     

COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST LANDSLIDE GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN TIBET

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90年代世界近海铁矿石的贸易状况

从过去数十年全世界近海铁矿石的贸易增长状况,可反映出世界对钢材的需求量。而90年代全世界的钢材生产发生了什么变化?铁矿石生产国能否满足全世界对铁矿石的需求增长量?本文在回顾和分析过去40年全世界对钢材需求量和近海铁矿石贸易状况的基础上,对以上问题进行了讨论。