Biological parameters used in setting captive‐breeding quotas for Indonesia's breeding facilities

The commercial captive breeding of wildlife is often seen as a potential conservation tool to relieve pressure on wild populations, but laundering of wild‐sourced specimens as captive bred can seriously undermine conservation efforts and provide a false sense of sustainability. Indonesia is at the center of such controversy; therefore, we examined Indonesia's captive‐breeding production plan (CBPP) for 2016. We compared the biological parameters used in the CBPP with parameters in the literature and with parameters suggested by experts on each species and identified shortcomings of the CBPP. Production quotas for 99 out of 129 species were based on inaccurate or unrealistic biological parameters and production quotas deviated more than 10% from what parameters in the literature allow for. For 38 species, the quota exceeded the number of animals that can be bred based on the biological parameters (range 100–540%) calculated with equations in the CBPP. We calculated a lower reproductive output for 88 species based on published biological parameters compared with the parameters used in the CBPP. The equations used in the production plan did not appear to account for other factors (e.g., different survival rate for juveniles compared to adult animals) involved in breeding the proposed large numbers of specimens. We recommend the CBPP be adjusted so that realistic published biological parameters are applied and captive‐breeding quotas are not allocated to species if their captive breeding is unlikely to be successful or no breeding stock is available. The shortcomings in the current CBPP create loopholes that mean mammals, reptiles, and amphibians from Indonesia declared captive bred may have been sourced from the wild.     

Humans use social information to adjust their quorum thresholds adaptively in a simulated predator detection experiment

Quorum sensing is used in many biological systems to increase decision accuracy. In quorum sensing, the probability that an individual adopts a behavior is a nonlinear function of the number of other individuals adopting this behavior. From an optimal decision-making perspective, individuals should adjust their quorum threshold to the particulars of the decision problem. Recent work predicts that a key factor here is the quality of social information. In particular, it is predicted that individuals should adjust their quorum thresholds such that it lies in between the average true and false positive rate of the other group members. We here test this prediction with a predator detection experiment. First, human groups observed a group of animals (projected on a white screen) in which a predator was present or absent, and each individual made an independent decision to escape or not. Second, individuals received social information on the decisions of their group members, after which individuals decided again. This social information, however, did not represent their own decisions but consisted of responses that either came from a high-performing group (i.e., many individuals detecting the predator) or from a low-performing group (i.e., few individuals detecting the predator). We found that individuals adaptively adjust their quorum threshold to the quality of the social information: when receiving social information from high-performing groups, individuals employed higher quorum thresholds than when receiving information from low-performing groups. Our study demonstrates that humans can quickly evaluate the quality of publicly available information and adaptively adjust their decision rules.     

Primary NO2 emissions and their impact on air quality in traffic environments in Germany

Background

The decreasing NO_X concentrations at urban measurement stations in Germany are in agreement with the reduction of NO_X emissions from vehicular traffic. However, the measured NO₂ concentrations are stagnating nationwide. In 2010, at more than the half of the urban measurement stations in Germany, annual mean values for NO₂ exceeded the new Europe-wide limit value of 40 μg/m³ (20 ppbv) NO₂. Similar findings are reported from many other member states of the European Union.

Results

The observed trend of the airborne NO₂ concentrations has different reasons. Firstly, the NO₂/NO_x emission ratio has increased significantly during the last two decades. Furthermore, secondary NO₂, caused by the titration reactions of NO with ozone (O₃) and peroxy radicals (RO₂), is responsible for the major fraction (approximately 70%) of the measured NO₂. However, secondary NO₂ shows a highly nonlinear dependency on NO_x and thus, is decreasing much more slowly than expected from the decreasing NO_x levels. Based on the results from the present study, the increased NO₂/NO_X emission ratio can only explain a minor fraction of the observed high airborne NO₂ concentration in the city center.

Conclusions

A further reduction of primary NO₂ emissions, due to improved exhaust gas treatment, will not have a strong influence on urban NO₂ levels, and a further significant reduction of the NO_X emissions, in particular from vehicular traffic, is necessary in order to meet the annual mean limit value for NO₂ of about 20 ppb in the future.     

A simple model which predicts some non-linear features between atmospheric sulphur and sulphur emissions

This paper develops a simple model and suggests a plausible chemico-physical mechanism for a non-linear response between atmospheric sulphur and sulphur emissions. It contains simplified representations of transport, deposition and conversion processes and uses a proxy in-cloud oxidant-limited reaction along a pathway connecting an emission source with a receptor site. Individual pathway responses to emissions show linear behaviour above a threshold. However, by averaging the values of SO2 at the receptor site from different pathways a continuous non-linear relationship is obtained. As emissions reduce, distant emission sources become less significant contributors of sulphur dioxide at a receptor site but their emissions are still counted in an emission inventory, leading to an apparent non-linearity. Sulphate is always found to contribute a signal to the receptor site total. This model goes someway to explaining a proposed 'crossover' between observed proportions of wet and dry deposited sulphur in the UK as emissions have been reduced.