Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface

The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.     

Integrated regional modelling and scenario development to evaluate future water demand under global change conditions

Within climate change impact research, the consideration of socioeconomic processes remains a challenge. Socioeconomic systems must be equipped to react and adapt to global change. However, any reasonable development or assessment of sustainable adaptation strategies requires a comprehensive consideration of human-environment interactions. This requirement can be met through multi-agent simulation, as demonstrated in the interdisciplinary project GLOWA-Danube (GLObal change of the WAter Cycle; ). GLOWA-Danube has developed an integrated decision support tool for water and land use management in the Upper Danube catchment (parts of Germany and Austria, 77,000 km²). The scientific disciplines invoked in the project have implemented sixteen natural and social science models, which are embedded in the simulation framework DANUBIA. Within DANUBIA, a multi-agent simulation approach is used to represent relevant socioeconomic processes. The structure and results of three of these multi-agent models, WaterSupply, Household and Tourism, are presented in this paper. A main focus of the paper is on the development of global change scenarios (climate and society) and their application to the presented models. The results of different simulation runs demonstrate the potential of multi-agent models to represent feedbacks between different water users and the environment. Moreover, the interactive usage of the framework allows to define and vary scenario assumptions so as to assess the impact of potential interventions. It is shown that integrated modelling and scenario design not only provide valuable information, but also offer a platform for discussing complex human-environment-interactions with stakeholders.     

纳米二氧化钛在老化环境条件下对铜诱导毒性的影响

纳米二氧化钛颗粒(nTiO₂)可以通过吸附表层水中共生重金属来改变它们对淡水无脊椎动物的毒性。然而,影响这种交互过程的几种环境因子的相对重要性仍不清楚。因此,本研究通过连续72 h的培养试验,评估了老化对Cu与nTiO₂对大型蚤Daphnia magna联合急性毒性的影响。在老化过程中,对老化时间以及离子强度、pH值和不同质量有机物质等因子都进行了考察。研究结果表明,尽管影响效应的大小不同,nTiO₂的存在往往减少了老化后Cu对大型蚤的诱发毒性,在没有nTiO₂的情况下,Cu对大型蚤急性毒性的EC₅₀值提高了3倍之多。此外,各种形态Cu的形成受到介质中的离子组成、pH值以及有机添加剂存在的影响,这一过程受到极大的调控,并随着老化时间对大型蚤生态毒性的响应有一定影响。尽管如此,该研究的结论对nTiO₂在淡水生态系统中不同环境条件下,改变重金属诱发毒性的潜在作用提供了有力的支持。然而,这种模式需要进一步验证,比如结合不同性质的重金属离子与不同的环境因素,如紫外线照射。
精选自Ricki R. Rosenfeldt, Frank Seitz, Ann-Cathrin Haigis, Johanna H?ger, Jochen P. Zubrod, Ralf Schulz, Mirco Bundschuh. Nanosized titanium dioxide influences copper induced toxicity during aging as a function of environmental conditions. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1766–1774, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3325
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3325/full
     

Habitat structure affects intraguild predation

Intraguild predation is thought to be ubiquitous in natural food webs. Yet, theory on intraguild predation predicts the intraguild prey to persist only under limited conditions. This gap between theory and empirical observations needs scrutiny. One reason might be that theory has focused on equilibrium dynamics and a limited set of species (usually three) that interact in well-mixed populations in unstructured habitats, and these assumptions will often not hold in natural systems. In this review, we focus on the effects of habitat structure on intraguild predation. Habitat structure could reduce encounter rates between predators and prey and could create refuges for prey. In both cases, habitat structure could reduce the strength of intraguild interactions, thereby facilitating species coexistence. A meta-analysis of studies on manipulation of habitat structure shows that intraguild prey indeed suffer less from intraguild predation in structured habitats. This was further confirmed by a meta-analysis in which studies on intraguild predation were classified according to habitat structure. Intraguild predation reduced densities of the intraguild prey significantly more in habitats with little structure than in habitats rich in structure. The effect of intraguild predation on the shared prey was negative, and not significantly affected by habitat structure. We conclude that habitat structure may increase persistence of the intraguild prey by decreasing the strength of the interaction between intraguild predator and intraguild prey.     

Modelling concentrations of airborne primary and secondary PM10 and PM2.5 with the BelEUROS-model in Belgium

The Eulerian Chemistry-Transport Model BelEUROS was used to calculate the concentrations of airborne PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 over Europe. Both primary as well as secondary particulate matter in the respirable size-range was taken into account. Especially PM_2.5 aerosols are often formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursor compounds. Comprehensive computer codes for the calculation of gas phase chemical reactions and thermodynamic equilibria between compounds in the gas-phase and the particulate phase had been implemented into the BelEUROS-model. Calculated concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 are compared to observations, including both the spatial and daily, temporal distribution of particulate matter in Belgium for certain monitoring locations and periods. The concentrations of the secondary compounds ammonium, nitrate and sulfate have also been compared to observed values. BelEUROS was found to reproduce the observed concentrations rather well. The model was applied to assess the contribution of emissions derived from the sector agriculture in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium, to PM₁₀- and PM_2.5-concentrations. The results demonstrate the importance of ammonia emissions in the formation of secondary particulate matter. Hence, future European emission abatement policy should consider more the role of ammonia in the formation of secondary particles.     

Evaluation of factors influencing soluble microbial product in submerged MBR through hybrid ASM model

In this study, a mathematical model was established to predict the formation of the soluble microbial product (SMP) in a submerged membrane bioreactor. The developed model was calibrated under the reference condition. Simulation results were in good agreement with the measured results under the reference condition. The calibrated model was then used in the scenario studies to evaluate the effect of three chosen operating parameters: hydraulic retention time (HRT), dissolved oxygen concentration, and sludge retention time (SRT). Simulation results revealed that the SMP dominated the soluble organic substances in the supernatant. The scenario studies also revealed that the HRT can be decreased to 1 h without deteriorating the effluent quality; dissolved oxygen concentration in the reactor can be kept at 2–3 mg/L to maintain the effluent quality, reduce the content of SMP, and minimize operating costs; the optimal SRT can be controlled to 10–15 d to achieve complete nitrification process, less membrane fouling potential, and acceptable organic removal efficiency.     

Macrozoobenthos diversity in an oxygen minimum zone off northern Namibia

A benthological survey in the Benguela upwelling area off northern Namibia (located at 17.3°S and water depth ranging between 26 and 117 m) showed the concentration of dissolved oxygen and the accumulation of organic-rich sediments to control macrozoobenthic community patterns. In contrast to highly biodiverse nearshore areas with well-structured shell deposits of the brachiopod Discinisca tenuis (Sowerby 1847), the benthic community in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) decreased strongly in species numbers. Nevertheless, a well-established community ranging from 13 to 31 species persisted. Species densities (300–3,350 ind m⁻²) and biomass (4–109 g afdw/m²) were surprisingly high for areas with near bottom oxygen concentrations from 0.06 to 0.88 ml l⁻¹. In contrast to OMZ’s of other upwelling areas, where the benthic macrofauna is generally dominated by small-bodied polychaetes, off Namibia larger key organisms like the bivalve Nuculana bicuspidata (Gould 1845) and the snail Nassarius vinctus (Marrett 1877) accounted for a large proportion of the macrozoobenthos >1 mm. This is supposed to have a distinct effect on the functional properties of the sediments.

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