Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 13— Applying the EPA Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment to a Set of Asbestos Lung Cancer Mortality Data

Abstract

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA-90) list 189 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) for which “safe” ambient concentrations are to be determined. The primary purpose of this paper is to develop two mathematical models, lognormal and logarithmic, that effectively express excess lung cancer mortality as a function of asbestos concentration for an example set of data and also to suggest using these two models for additional HAPs. The secondary purpose of this paper is to calculate a “safe” asbestos concentration by first assuming a default linear extrapolation (to one excess death per million people, as specified for carcinogenic HAPs). The resulting “safe” concentration is an impossible-to-achieve 1/1000 of present background asbestos concentrations. A letter to the editor and a response in this Journal issue use additional asbestos data that suggest that the “safe” concentration should be about 730 times higher than first calculated here and that a default nonlinear extrapolation should be used instead, with the “safe” concentration proportional to the desired mortality level raised to the 0.39 power. These results suggest that the most important problem in setting a “safe” concentration for each carcinogenic HAP is to determine the correct nonlinear extrapolation to use for each HAP.     

Use of AERMOD to Determine a Hydrogen Sulfide Emission Factor for Swine Operations by Inverse Modeling

This study was conducted to determine both optimal settings applied to the plume dispersion model, AERMOD, and a scalable emission factor for accurately determining the spatial distribution of hydrogen sulfide concentrations in the vicinity of swine concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). These operations emit hydrogen sulfide from both housing structures and waste lagoons. With ambient measurements made at 4 stations within 1 km of large swine CAFOs in Iowa, an inverse-modeling approach applied to AERMOD was used to determine hydrogen sulfide emission rates. CAFO buildings were treated as volume sources whereas nearby lagoons were modeled as area sources. The robust highest concentration (RHC), calculated for both measured and modeled concentrations, was used as the metric for adjusting the emission rate until the ratio of the two RHC levels was unity. Utilizing this approach, an average emission flux rate of 0.57 μg/m(2)-s was determined for swine CAFO lagoons. Using the average total animal weight (kg) of each CAFO, an average emission factor of 6.06 × 10(-7) μg/yr-m(2)-kg was calculated. From studies that measured either building or lagoon emission flux rates, building fluxes, on a floor area basis, were considered equal to lagoon flux rates. The emission factor was applied to all CAFOs surrounding the original 4 sites and surrounding an additional 6 sites in Iowa, producing an average modeled-to-measured RHC ratio of 1.24. When the emission factor was applied to AERMOD to simulate the spatial distribution of hydrogen sulfide around a hypothetical large swine CAFO (1M kg), concentrations 0.5 km from the CAFO were 35 ppb and dropped to 2 ppb within 6 km of the CAFO. These values compare to a level of 30 ppb that has been determined by the State of Iowa as a threshold level for ambient hydrogen sulfide levels.     

Persistence of diflubenzuron and bay sir 8514 in natural and sterile sandy loam and organic soils

Abstract

Disappearance rates of 10 ppm technical diflubenzuron (N(((4‐chloro‐phenyl)amino)carbonyl)‐2,6‐diflurobenzamide, Dimilin^®) and BAY SIR 8514 (2‐chloro‐N(((4‐trifluoromethoxyphenyl)amino)carbonyl)benzamide) applied on quartz sand to natural sandy loam and muck soils were significantly greater than for the corresponding sterilized soils, e.g. 47–51% vs. 68–87% BAY SIR 8514 and 2–12% vs. 80–87% diflubenzuron remaining at 12 wk, indicating that soil microorganisms play a major role in their degradation. Kinetic analysis of the data based on a first order dependence on the insecticide concentration showed that the rate constants for these disappearance reactions decreased with time.     

The Radial Distribution of Sulfur Dioxide Source Strength and Concentration in Nashville

This progress report describes the National Air Pollution Technical Information Center currently under development in the Division of Air Pollution, Public Health Service. It briefly reviews the report "Science, Government, and Information" (Weinberg Report) and the White House delegation of responsibility to the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare for handling air pollution technical information.     

Bioleaching of metals from spent lithium ion secondary batteries using Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans

Bioleaching of spent lithium ion secondary batteries, containing LiCoO2, was attempted in this investigation. The present study was carried out using chemolithotrophic and acidophilic bacteria Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans, which utilized elemental sulfur and ferrous ion as the energy source to produce metabolites like sulfuric acids and ferric ion in the leaching medium. These metabolites helped dissolve metals from spent batteries. Bio-dissolution of cobalt was found to be faster than lithium. The effect of initial Fe(II) concentration, initial pH and solid/liquid (w/v) ratio during bioleaching of spent battery wastes were studied in detail. Higher Fe(II) concentration showed a decrease in dissolution due co-precipitation of Fe(III) with the metals in the residues. The higher solid/liquid ratio (w/v) also affected the metal dissolution by arresting the cell growth due to increased metal concentration in the waste sample. An EDXA mapping was carried out to compare the solubility of both cobalt and lithium, and the slow dissolution rate was clearly found from the figures.     

Mutagenicity of chloroaniline/lignin metabolites in the salmonella/microsome assay

Abstract

Chloroanilines are constituents of many agrochemicals and have been found to be metabolized to succinic acid conjugates, e.g., succinamides and succinimides. The mutagenic potential of five chloroanilines and their succinamides and succinimide derivatives have been tested with two strains of Salmonella typhimurium (TA98 and TA100) with and without rat hepatic micro‐somal fraction. None of the compounds produced a dose response effect with a two‐fold increase in revertants indicating that these compounds are not mutagens or promutagens in these assays.     

Performance of Wet Scrubbers on Liquid and Solid Particulate Matter

A general discussion of packed scrubbers for particle collection is presented. Data on liquid entrainment separation, ammonium chloride fume collection, and clay particle collection are given.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.