Estimating fine particulate matter component concentrations and size distributions using satellite-retrieved fractional aerosol optical depth: part 2--a case study

We use the fractional aerosol optical depth (AOD) values derived from Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) aerosol component measurements, along with aerosol transport model constraints, to estimate ground-level concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass and its major constituents in the continental United States. Regression models using fractional AODs predict PM2.5 mass and sulfate (SO4) concentrations in both the eastern and western United States, and nitrate (NO3) concentrations in the western United States reasonably well, compared with the available ground-level U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) measurements. These models show substantially improved predictive power when compared with similar models using total-column AOD as a single predictor, especially in the western United States. The relative contributions of the MISR aerosol components in these regression models are used to estimate size distributions of EPA PM2.5 species. This method captures the overall shapes of the size distributions of PM2.5 mass and SO4 particles in the east and west, and NO3 particles in the west. However, the estimated PM2.5 and SO4 mode diameters are smaller than those previously reported by monitoring studies conducted at ground level. This is likely due to the satellite sampling bias caused by the inability to retrieve aerosols through cloud cover, and the impact of particle hygroscopicity on measured particle size distributions at ground level.     

Analysis of the impact of the forest fires in August 2007 on air quality of Athens using multi-sensor aerosol remote sensing data,meteorology and surface observations

Data from multiple satellite remote sensors are integrated with ground measurements and meteorological data to study the impact of Greek forest fires in August 2007 on the air quality in Athens. Two pollution episodes were identified by ground PM₁₀ measurements between August 23 and September 4. In the first episode, Evia and Peloponnese fires contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. In the second episode, transport of industrial pollution from Italy and Western Europe as well as forest fires in Albania contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. Local air pollution sources also contributed to the observed particle levels during these episodes. Satellite data provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of particle concentrations, thus they can be used identify pollution sources. In spite of a few weaknesses in current satellite data products identified in this analysis, combining satellite aerosol remote sensing data with trajectory models and ground measurements is a powerful tool to study intensive particle pollution events such as forest fires.     

The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.     

The political economy of certificates for land use in Germany – experimental evidence

Certificate trading schemes have been discussed as a cost-efficient means of reducing urban land consumption in Germany by capping and reallocating permissions to conduct building projects. However, in contrast to the established cap & trade systems for emissions, reputation-seeking politicians would be in charge of buying and trading certificates – an aspect not considered to date. We thus present a laboratory experiment that captures politicians’ incentives connected to electoral cycles in a cap & trade scheme for land consumption, whereby tradable certificates are auctioned and grandfathered in equal shares. We find the cap & trade system to be efficient at large; yet, there are several politically relevant distortions that are aggravated by self-serving incentives. We thus identify potential problems to a cap & trade system for urban land consumption that could substantially reduce both its assumed superior efficiency and its political feasibility.     

On international equity in reducing emissions from deforestation

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) can be an effective and efficient means of mitigating climate change. However, the perceived equity in the distribution of financial incentives for REDD could also emerge as a critical issue in international negotiations. The design of reference levels, which provide the benchmark for crediting emissions reductions, affects the economic incentives for national participation in a REDD mechanism and thus the overall willingness to reach an agreement on REDD. This paper compares the equity impacts of five proposed reference level designs using a partial-equilibrium model. Tradeoffs among equity, environmental effectiveness and cost-efficiency indicate the proposals trigger similar aggregate emissions reductions but lead to different outcomes in efficiency and alternative measures of equity. If equity across countries is measured as the financial incentive provided relative to a country's forest carbon stock, then a REDD mechanism compensating a uniform share of at-risk carbon stocks is the most equitable. On the other hand, if equity is evaluated as the financial incentive relative to the opportunity costs of participating in REDD, then the most equitable approach would be compensating emissions reductions but withholding a part of the payments to compensate for carbon stocks, which also encourages broader country participation under our model.     

Signal-transfer modeling for regional assessment of forest responses to environmental changes in the southeastern United States

Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species and eastern deciduous forests. Outputs, such as forest production, evapotranspiration and carbon pools, may be compared statistically for alternative equilibrium or transient scenarios providing a statistical basis for decision making in regional assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Response of Mercury Contamination in Fish to Decreased Aqueous Concentrations and Loading of Inorganic Mercury in a Small Stream

Approximately 250 000 kg of mercury was lost towater and soils at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Y-12 Plantin Oak Ridge, Tennessee in the 1950s and early 1960s. A creek originating within the plant receivedcontinuous inputs of waterborne mercury, predominantlyas dissolved inorganic mercury, from groundwater,streambed contamination, and sump and process waterdischarges to the contaminated storm sewer network.These produce aqueous total mercury concentrations of1–2 g L^-1 in the upper reaches of the stream,decreasing to about 0.1–0.2 g L^-1 in its lowerreaches. A program to reduce mercury concentrationsin the creek identified specific sources (buildingsumps, contaminated springwater seeps, foundationdrains, and contaminated piping) and rerouted wateraround contaminated portions of the drain system orcollected and treated mercury-contaminated waterbefore discharging it. As a result, waterbornemercury concentrations in the creek and total mercuryloading were reduced from 1.8 g L^-1 to0.6 g L^-1 and 100 to 20 g d^-1, respectively, in the last 5 yr.Mean mercury concentrations in fish nearest sourceareas in the creek headwaters decreased at roughly thesame rate as waterborne total mercury concentrationsover the past five years, but at the facility boundarydownstream the decline in mercury bioaccumulation wasmuch less. At sites 5–15 km farther downstream, nodecrease was evident. Dissolved methylmercury tendedto increase with distance downstream in a patterninverse to that noted for its dissolved inorganicmercury precursor.Improvements in water quality and modification ofweirs to allow the passage of fish have resulted inthe establishment of large populations of fish inmercury-contaminated headwater areas previously devoidof fish. It may be that the accumulation, retention,and eventual downstream transport of this reservoir ofbiologically incorporated methylmercury has acted tobuffer against expected reductions in mercury in fishat downstream sites.