On international equity in reducing emissions from deforestation

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) can be an effective and efficient means of mitigating climate change. However, the perceived equity in the distribution of financial incentives for REDD could also emerge as a critical issue in international negotiations. The design of reference levels, which provide the benchmark for crediting emissions reductions, affects the economic incentives for national participation in a REDD mechanism and thus the overall willingness to reach an agreement on REDD. This paper compares the equity impacts of five proposed reference level designs using a partial-equilibrium model. Tradeoffs among equity, environmental effectiveness and cost-efficiency indicate the proposals trigger similar aggregate emissions reductions but lead to different outcomes in efficiency and alternative measures of equity. If equity across countries is measured as the financial incentive provided relative to a country's forest carbon stock, then a REDD mechanism compensating a uniform share of at-risk carbon stocks is the most equitable. On the other hand, if equity is evaluated as the financial incentive relative to the opportunity costs of participating in REDD, then the most equitable approach would be compensating emissions reductions but withholding a part of the payments to compensate for carbon stocks, which also encourages broader country participation under our model.     

The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.     

Analysis of the impact of the forest fires in August 2007 on air quality of Athens using multi-sensor aerosol remote sensing data,meteorology and surface observations

Data from multiple satellite remote sensors are integrated with ground measurements and meteorological data to study the impact of Greek forest fires in August 2007 on the air quality in Athens. Two pollution episodes were identified by ground PM₁₀ measurements between August 23 and September 4. In the first episode, Evia and Peloponnese fires contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. In the second episode, transport of industrial pollution from Italy and Western Europe as well as forest fires in Albania contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. Local air pollution sources also contributed to the observed particle levels during these episodes. Satellite data provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of particle concentrations, thus they can be used identify pollution sources. In spite of a few weaknesses in current satellite data products identified in this analysis, combining satellite aerosol remote sensing data with trajectory models and ground measurements is a powerful tool to study intensive particle pollution events such as forest fires.     

Political influence on non-cooperative international climate policy

We analyze non-cooperative international climate policy in a setting of political competition by national interest groups. In the first stage, countries decide whether to link their domestic emission permit markets to an international market, which only forms if it is supported by all countries. In the second stage, countries non-cooperatively decide on the number of tradable emission allowances. In both stages, special interest groups try to sway the government in their favor. We find that (i) both the choice of regime and the levels of domestic and global emissions only depend on the aggregate levels of organized stakes in all countries and not on their distribution among individual interest groups and (ii) an increase in lobbying influence by a particular lobby group may backfire by inducing a change towards the lobby group's less preferred regime.     

PSII activity and pigment dynamics of Symbiodinium in two Indo-Pacific corals exposed to short-term high-light stress

This study examined the capacity for photoprotection and repair of photo-inactivated photosystem II in the same Symbiodinium clade associated with two coexisting coral species during high-light stress in order to test for the modulation of the symbiont’s photobiological response by the coral host. After 4 days exposure to in situ irradiance, symbionts of the bleaching-sensitive Pocillopora damicornis showed rapid synthesis of photoprotective pigments (by 44 %) and strongly enhanced rates of xanthophyll cycling (by 446 %) while being insufficient to prevent photoinhibition (sustained loss in F _v/F _m at night) and loss of symbionts after 4 days. By contrast, Pavona decussata showed no significant changes in F _v/F _m, symbiont density or xanthophyll cycling. Given the association with the same Symbiodinium clade in both coral species, our findings suggest that symbionts in the two species examined may experience different in hospite light conditions as a result of different biometric properties of the coral host.     

Multiscale Plume Transport from the Collapse of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001

The collapse of the world trade center (WTC) produced enhanced levels of airborne contaminants in New York City and nearby areas on September 11, 2001 through December, 2001. This catastrophic event revealed the vulnerability of the urban environment, and the inability of many existing air monitoring systems to operate efficiently in a crisis. The contaminants released circulated within the street canyons, but were also lifted above the urban canopy and transported over large distances, reflecting the fact that pollutant transport affects multiple scales, from single buildings through city blocks to mesoscales. In this study, ground-and space-based observations were combined with numerical weather forecast fields to initialize fine-scale numerical simulations. The effort is aimed at reconstructing pollutant dispersion from the WTC in New York City to surrounding areas, to provide means for eventually evaluating its effect on population and environment. Atmospheric dynamics were calculated with the multi-grid Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), covering scales from 250 m to 300 km and contaminant transport was studied using the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport (HYPACT) model that accepts RAMS meteorological output. The RAMS/HYPACT results were tested against PM2.5 observations from the roofs of public schools in New York City (NYC), Landsat images, and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) retrievals. Calculations accurately reproduced locations and timing of PM2.5 peak aerosol concentrations, as well as plume directionality. By comparing calculated and observed concentrations, the effective magnitude of the aerosol source was estimated. The simulated pollutant distributions are being used to characterize levels of human exposure and associated environmental health impacts.