Planning Tools for Developing Comprehensive Regional Monitoring Programs

We present a planning framework that structures thelarge amount of interrelated information involved indeveloping regional monitoring programs. By regionalwe mean programs that recognize the importance ofprocesses that occur on larger geographic scales andthat cut across more than one ecosystem component. Theframework helps visualize functional relationshipsamong qualitative ingredients such as public concernsand more concrete details such as individual dataelements. It portrays the flow of information amongthe components of a regional program and ties eachaspect of the program to management decision-makingneeds. This makes it easier, during the planningprocess, to ensure that monitoring will actuallyproduce useful information. Further, the frameworksnovel, graphically oriented, and readily accessibleformat makes key information equally available to thewide range of participants (regulators, scientists,managers, public) whose input and support arenecessary for program success.     

Spatial properties of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea

Using existing monitoring data, the present study attempts to characterize spatial patterns of surface water nutrients in the Baltic Sea. The analysis was made for two different spatial scales, differences between and within sub-basins.Non-parametric methods were chosen to reduce problems with the distributional properties of the data. By dividing the data into four seasons care was taken as to seasonality. To avoid bias due to different laboratory analysis, only data from Nordic countries were used, whose results did not apparently depart from each other. Bias due to different sampling frequency was another problem. This was reduced by using only the last observation in each season for every station and year.The results suggested differences in the nutrient concentrations between basins. The two northernmost basins (Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea) had lower phosphate concentrations and higher silicate concentrations compared to the rest of the Sea. Bothnian Bay and the Gulf of Finland had higher nitrate concentrations.The concentration structure within basins was studied using transects in both latitudinal and longitudinal direction. A gradient for phosphate and nitrate was found in the Gulf of Finland, with lower concentrations at the mouth. The Bothnian Sea showed lower concentrations in the middle of the basin compared to the coasts. The highest concentrations of phosphate were found close to the Finnish coast and for silicate the highest concentrations were located near the Swedish coast. It was not possible to study variation in the west-east direction within the Baltic proper, due to data shortage. For the transects in the north-south direction no differences were detected for nitrate and silicate. Phosphate gave one significant result during autumn for the transect in the eastern part of the Baltic proper.This study revealed several problems associated with the data available. Uneven sampling in space and time put severe constraints on the study. A better design of the monitoring program is suggested, where spatial properties are considered explicitly. Revision of the program in this direction is needed for reasonable calculation of total amounts and concentrations representative for a basin.     

城镇化建设中的减灾思考

十六大以来，我国迎来了全面推进城镇化建设的一个黄金时期，在小城镇建设当中要以“以人为本”的理念为指导，走科学规划、合理布局的道路。这就必然要将减灾概念融入城镇建设当中，对可能发生的地震等灾害进行设防，建设充满人文关怀的小城镇．本文对小城镇的减灾工作的若干问题进行了探讨.     

兰州西固地区光化学烟雾污染气质模式

以兰州西固地区为研究对象,建立了描述该地区光化学烟雾污染的大气质量模拟模式——柱子模式。将该模式与实测数据进行了比较,结果表明,该模式基本上能够定量地描述当地所发生的光化学烟雾污染的主要污染物的时空分布及形成过程,可为污染评价、预测及污染治理提供依据。     

Detecting neural tube defects by amniocentesis between 11 and 15 weeks' gestation

Forty-two open neural tube defects (NTDs) were identified in our series of 7440 amniocenteses tested between 11 and 15 weeks of gestation. Using a cut-off of ≥2.0 MOM, the detection rate for open NTDs was 95 per cent; 100 per cent each for anencephaly and spina bifida; and 78 per cent for encephalocele. Two encephaloceles had AFP levels less than 2.0 MOM and negative AChEs. Thirty-four (81 per cent) of these NTDs were tested between 13 and 15 weeks and 8 (19 per cent) before 13 weeks. There were 0.6 per cent false positives by AFP (excluding serious abnormalities and fetal death) and 0.1 per cent after AChE. The likelihood of an open NTD after an elevated AFP (≥2.0 MOM) was 24 and 77 per cent for any serious abnormality. These results, when combined with an earlier study, indicate that amniotic fluid AFP appears to be as sensitive a test for open NTDs between 13 and 15 weeks as between 16 and 20 weeks. Additional experience is necessary to determine this before 13 weeks.     

Prenatal diagnosis of herlitz junctional epidermolysis bullosa by amniocentesis

Herlitz junctional epidermolysis bullosa (HJEB) is a severe blistering disorder which usually results in death during infancy. We have previously shown that the anchoring filament protein laminin-5 (kalinin/nicein), which mediates keratinocyte attachment and dermal–epidermal cohesion, is abnormally expressed in individuals with HJEB. Laminin-5 was detected by Western blot analysis in amniotic fluid from 44 consecutive normal secondtrimester control pregnancies, but was undetectable in second-trimester amniotic fluid from four pregnancies with fetuses affected by HJEB. In one case of severe non-Herlitz JEB, laminin-5 was detected in both amniotic fluid and skin. In human amniotic fluid, the laminin-5 a3 subunit was processed to a major 165 kD species and a minor 145 kD species and the β2 subunit was partially processed to 105 kD. Although laminin-5 was covalently associated with laminin-6 (K-laminin) in amniotic membrane, no covalent interaction was detected in amniotic fluid. Laminin-5 from amniotic fluid strongly supported keratinocyte attachment. These results suggest that Western blot analysis of second-trimester amniotic fluid is useful in determining the prenatal diagnosis of HJEB and that laminin-5 may serve a physiologically important function in amniotic fluid.     

Prenatal exclusion of stickler syndrome

Stickler syndrome is an autosomal dominant disorder of the connective tissue which includes ocular and systemic manifestations. We report on a large kindred in which we were able to demonstrate very tight linkage between the disease and the type II collagen gene (COL2A1) (LOD score 3·91 at θ=0). In a family in which the father and one of his daughters were severely affected, DNA analysis from a chorionic villus sample demonstrated that the fetus possessed the normal allele of COL2A1. Thereafter a normal child was born.     

Incremental cost-effectiveness of incorporating oestriol evaluation in down syndrome screening programmes

As screening for Down syndrome becomes increasingly sophisticated, it is important to evaluate the newer technologies in terms of their cost-effectiveness. One recent addition to Down syndrome screening programmes is maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), especially when used in conjunction with maternal serum α-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin. Using assumptions used in a California proposal to justify an expanded screening programme for Down syndrome, we calculated both the average and the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃. Using the base case assumptions, including an $8 fee for the uE₃, the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃ to the proposed California programme is $119 100 per case detected, a value that compares favourably with other Down syndrome screening programmes. The sensitivity analysis supports this conclusion over a wide range of assumptions. However, because of the uncertainty with some key data, it is still too early to fully support the inclusion of uE₃ in Down syndrome screening programmes.     

Transvaginal chorionic villus sampling

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) with either transcervical catheters or transabdominal needles is a widely-accepted method for prenatal diagnosis. However, there exists a small subset of patients in whom sampling is difficult or impossible with either route because of individual anatomic variations. A new method of chorionic villus biopsy has been developed to circumvent these problems, utilizing transvaginal chorionic needle aspiration guided by an intravaginal ultrasound probe. This technique was performed successfully in 15 patients in whom villi could not be obtained by either of the conventional methods. This method now makes CVS possible in essentially all women regardless of their uterine anatomy or placental placement; it may also prove useful for very early chorionic sampling.     

Trisomy 7 in chorionic villi: Follow-up studies of pregnancy,normal child,and placental clonal anomalies

Cytogenetic study of chorionic villi sampled because of advanced maternal age revealed, after overnight culture, an apparently non-mosaic trisomy 7. Amniocentesis showed exclusively normal mitoses, and the pregnancy continued normally. One hundred mitoses from cord blood of the normal newborn revealed a non-mosaic 46,XX complement. No cells with a proven trisomy 7 were found in cultures from either of two biopsies of the morphologically normal placenta, but the peripheral biopsy showed in multiple cultures an abnormal clone: 47,XX, + 20,-2,-21, + t(2;21)(p13;q22). To our knowledge, this is the first case of non-mosaic trisomy 7 detected on CVS which has had follow-up studies of amniotic fluid, cord blood, and term placenta.