Comparing computing formulas for estimating concentration ratios

The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance on the choice of computing formulas (estimators) for estimating average concentration ratios and other ratio-type measures of radionuclides and other environmental contaminant transfers between ecosystem components. Mathematical expressions for the expected value of three commonly used estimators (arithmetic mean of ratios, geometric mean of ratios, and the ratio of means) are obtained when the multivariate lognormal distribution is assumed. These expressions are used to explain why these estimators will not in general give the same estimate of the average concentration ratio. They illustrate that the magnitude of the discrepancies depends on the magnitude of measurement biases, and on the variance and correlations associated with spatial heterogeneity and measurement errors. This paper also reports on a computer simulation study that compares the accuracy of eight computing formulas for estimating a ratio relationship that is constant over time and/or space. Statistical models appropriate for both controlled spiking experiments and observational field studies for either normal or lognormal distributions are considered. Our results indicate that for either type of study the geometric mean is generally preferred if the lognormal distribution applies. However, the geometric mean has the disadvantage that its expected value depends on n, the number of measurements taken. Ricker's estimator, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{rt}}$, appears to perform worse than the other estimators studied when the observations are lognormal. All eight estimators appear to be equally accurate for the controlled spiking study when data are normally distributed. For observational field studies when data are normally distributed the ratio of means or slight modifications thereof are preferred to other estimators investigated. Before one chooses a computing formula for estimating a concentration ratio, thought should be given to what target value needs to be estimated to satisfy study objectives, and to whether the normal or lognormal distribution is a more realistic model. The geometric mean performs well for lognormal distributions, but comparison of geometric means or of a geometric mean with environmental limits can be misleading if n is small. The arithmetic mean of ratios is a conservative choice in that it will always give a larger estimate than will the geometric mean. It may also be severely biased when data are lognormal and the variances of measurement errors are large. The ratio of the means is a reasonable choice if the distribution is normal. The median of the observed ratios, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>md</mtext>}}$, is useful estimate since it is easily obtained and has an easily understood interpretation as the point above which and below which 50% of the observed ratios lie. Also, it is appropriate no matter what the distribution of the observed ratios may be. Confidence limits on the median are also easily obtained. Finally, while this paper emphasizes applications in radionuclide research, our results should be applicable to a wide range of environmental contaminants since many contaminants have approximately lognormal distributions.     

Influence of Chronic Man-made Pollution on Bromus inermis Genome Size

Russian Journal of Ecology - Technogenic pollution can accelerate microevolutionary processes in natural populations. We estimated the nuclear DNA content of 10 Bromus inermis Leyss. samples from...     

Chemical dusts, vapours, and fumes causing asthma

Allergic respiratory disease due to common allergens of organic origin is wwell known. Less familiar, but of increasing importance, are chemicals of organic and inorganic nature, met as dusts, vapours, and fumes. Their relevance is shown in occupational respiratory allergic disorders. Confirmation is given by “real life,” simulated, occupational-type provocation tests. Controlled exposure with minute amounts for brief periods, thus closely simulating allergic sensitivity, can precisely identify etiological causes in often complex exposures. The capacity of these widely different agents in different forms to elicit the different patterns of asthmatic reactions, is a pointed example of their potential role, as well as the role of chemical agents in general. The introduction into indoor environments of such materials demands consideration of their possible allergenic ffects and of the need to recognise the various forms of allergic respiratory reaction they may cause.     

Objectives and status of fabric filter performance study

In October 1977, Southwestern Public Service Company executed a contract with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that called for a study to assess the performance of a fabric filter system installed on a large utility boiler that utilizes low sulfur Western coal. The project is now into its second year and the objectives of this paper are to describe the scope and intent of the study, as well as to report progress to date. In addition, some of the difficulties that we have encountered are discussed. Although some of these problems have resulted in procedural changes, the intent of the study has not been altered. This paper describes work being done in specific areas with which both the EPA and Southwestern are connected. These include fabric assessment, data collection, selection and installation of instrumentation, and overall fabric filter system performance. Results of the first performance test are also reviewed and the installation of a pilot baghouse is discussed.     

Mutagenic and carcinogenic potency of extracts of diesel and related environmental emissions: Study design, sample generation, collection, and preparation

A major diesel emissions research program has been initiated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to assess the human health risk associated with increased use of diesel automobiles. This program is intended to establish the mutagenic and carcinogenic potency of complex organics associated with diesel particles as well as comparative particle-bound organics from other environmental emissions for which human epidemiological data are available. The mobile source samples selected for this study were collected from a heavy-duty diesel engine, a series of light-duty diesel passenger cars, and a gasoline catalyst automobile. The comparative source samples incorporated into the study were cigarette smoke condensate, coke oven emissions, roofing tar emissions, and benzo(a)pyrene. The samples were tested using three mutagenic assays and four carcinogenic assays as prescribed by a test matrix. This report describes the study design, particle generation, and sample collection and preparation. A brief summary of the bioassays is also included.     

The additivity of multiple doses of a liver carcinogen in rats

The temporal pattern and dose-rate dependence of liver cancer in rats fed 2-fluorenylacetamide (2-FAA) was compared to analytical formulas derived from a specific model. The model was based on the idea that carcinogens have two distinct actions on cells: (1) transformation and (2) acceleration of progression. Transformed cells are by definition progressing toward cancer, but their rate of progression may depend on several factors, specifically, the amount of carcinogen. In the experiments the carcinogen was removed from the diet after various times and the rate of tumor progression was estimated from the time of tumor occurrence. The results were consistent with the idea that 2-FAA accelerated the progression of the cancers. The model provides a simple explanation of Druckrey's law in that the temporal occurrence of tumors induced by a carcinogen represents the acceleration of a naturally occurring disease progression.     

Plutonium in sheep faeces as an indicator of deposition on vegetation

In order to study the deposition on vegetation of plutonium arising from the testing of nuclear weapons and discharges from nuclear facilities, sheep faeces were collected from the South-west and North of England. The plutonium content of faeces has been shown to be a reproducible and sensitive indicator of deposition on herbage and, with this technique, plutonium discharged from the Sellafield Works of British Nuclear Fuels LImited can be detected 60 km from the site. On moorland pastures the concentration of ^239+240Pu in faeces, expressed as activity per gram of ash, is roughly equal numerically to the deposit of plutonium on 1 m² of vegetation.Some of the plutonium ingested by a grazing sheep is absorbed and the highest concentrations are found in liver. The liver of a sheep grazing on pasture where the ^239+240Pu concentration in faeces was about 2 pCi (74 mBq) g⁻¹ of ash, was found to contain <1% of the Generalised Derived Limit for mutton and offal, and the meat <0·001%.     

Threshold and dose response estimation using the “filter model”

The “filter model” has been developed to explain the biologic effects of radiation and chemicals. We have examined nearly 300 sets of dose response data, of which 50 are presented here. Responses (induced by radiation and chemicals) which have been examined include in vitro survival studies on animal and plant tissues, induction of cellular aberrations and time to tumor or death. Similar data from in vivo studies has also been examined. All of the data appear to fit the model R = a lnD + b(lnD)² + c, where R is the response, a and b are parameters fitted by regression to a particular set of data, and c is the response at zero (or lowest) dose. By writing this model in exponential form, it can be seen that the response R results from multistage filtering (by net amounts a and b) of the initial dose, D. The threshold is obtained from this model as the point, $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}$, at which the second derivative becomes zero. This is given by $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}\text{=}\text{exp}\text{(1 ?}\text{a}\text{2b}\text{)}$ when a and b are oppositelt signed.     

Fertility and air pollution: Some empirical findings

This paper attempts to explain regional differences in fertility rates in the standard metropolitan statistical areas of the United States through socioeconomic factors and air pollution. An important feature of this study is that it uses the most recent data pertaining to a homogeneous sample of observations within a country rather than using data for different countries. Statistical results suggest that given other factors, fertility and the level of air pollution have an inverse relationship. This quantitative effect is statistically significant but the absolute impact is rather low. Our results also suggest that an increase in the level of income, relative education of females, temperature, and the availability of physicians would in the long run reduce fertility rates in the urban areas of the United States.     

Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.