The probabilistic niche model reveals substantial variation in the niche structure of empirical food webs

The structure of food webs, complex networks of interspecies feeding interactions, plays a crucial role in ecosystem resilience and function, and understanding food web structure remains a central problem in ecology. Previous studies have shown that key features of empirical food webs can be reproduced by low-dimensional "niche" models. Here we examine the form and variability of food web niche structure by fitting a probabilistic niche model to 37 empirical food webs, a much larger number of food webs than used in previous studies. The model relaxes previous assumptions about parameter distributions and hierarchy and returns parameter estimates for each species in each web. The model significantly outperforms previous niche model variants and also performs well for several webs where a body-size-based niche model performs poorly, implying that traits other than body size are important in structuring these webs' niche space. Parameter estimates frequently violate previous models' assumptions: in 19 of 37 webs, parameter values are not significantly hierarchical, 32 of 37 webs have nonuniform niche value distributions, and 15 of 37 webs lack a correlation between niche width and niche position. Extending the model to a two-dimensional niche space yields networks with a mixture of one- and two-dimensional niches and provides a significantly better fit for webs with a large number of species and links. These results confirm that food webs are strongly niche-structured but reveal substantial variation in the form of the niche structuring, a result with fundamental implications for ecosystem resilience and function.     

Seedling growth responses to soil resources in the understory of a wet tropical forest

Plant growth responses to resources may be an important mechanism that influences species' distributions, coexistence, and community structure. Irradiance is considered the most important resource for seedling growth in the understory of wet tropical forests, but multiple soil nutrients and species have yet to be examined simultaneously with irradiance under field conditions. To identify potentially limiting resources, we modeled tree seedling growth as a function of irradiance and soil nutrients across five sites, spanning a soil fertility gradient in old-growth, wet tropical forests at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. We measured an array of soil nutrients including total nitrogen (total N), inorganic N (nitrate [NO3-] and ammonium [NH4+]), phosphate (PO4-), and sum of base cations (SBC; potassium, magnesium, and calcium). Shade in the forest understory did not preclude seedling growth correlations with soil nutrients. Irradiance was a significant predictor of growth in 52% of the species, inorganic N in 54% (NO3- in 32%; NH4+ in 34%), total N in 47%, SBC in 39%, and PO4- in 29%. Overall, growth was correlated with both irradiance and soil nutrients in 45% of species and with soil nutrients only in an additional 48%; rarely was irradiance alone correlated with growth. Contrary to expectations, the magnitudes of growth effects, assessed as the maximum growth response to significant resources for each species, were similar for irradiance and most soil nutrients. Among species whose growth correlated with soil nutrients, the rank importance of nutrient effects was SBC, followed by N (total N, NO3-, and/or NH4+) and PO4-. Species' growth responsiveness (i.e., magnitudes of effect) to irradiance and soil nutrients was negatively correlated with species' shade tolerance (survival under 1% full sun). In this broad survey of species and resources, the nearly ubiquitous effects of soil nutrients on seedling growth challenge the idea that soil nutrients are less important than irradiance in the light-limited understory of wet tropical forests.     

Flue gas desulphurization for hot recycle Oxyfuel combustion: Experiences from the 30 MWth Oxyfuel pilot plant in Schwarze Pumpe

Significant differences exist in the flue gas composition in hot recycle Oxyfuel conditions as e.g. the high CO₂ partial pressure (>90 vol%, dry), the very high SO₂ concentration and the high water content (approx. 30 vol%). Therefore certain design and operation criteria have to be observed for the flue gas desulphurization with forced oxidation under Oxyfuel combustion conditions. Several performance tests have been executed at the 30 MW_th Oxyfuel pilot plant in Schwarze Pumpe to evaluate the main performance parameters and to assess the influence of the major operation parameters. The results show that there are no fundamental problems for the operation of the flue gas desulphurization unit under Oxyfuel combustion conditions. High removal rates could be reached and no negative impact of the high CO₂ partial pressure was observed under the tested operating conditions. No major differences in the gypsum quality have been observed between air firing and Oxyfuel conditions.     

Movements and wintering areas of breeding age Thick-billed Murre <Emphasis Type="Italic">Uria lomvia</Emphasis> from two colonies in Nunavut,Canada

The non-breeding movements of marine birds were poorly known until recently, but this information is essential to understanding the risk to different geographical populations from events on the wintering grounds. We tracked the migration routes and wintering areas of Thick-billed Murre Uria lomvia from two breeding colonies in eastern Canada: Coats Island in northern Hudson Bay and The Minarets, Baffin Island, during the period August 2007–May 2008 using geolocation loggers. Birds from The Minarets moved south rapidly post-breeding and wintered principally off Newfoundland and southern Labrador, or between Newfoundland and southern Greenland, remaining south of 55°N until at least the spring equinox. Those from Coats Island remained in Hudson Bay until at least mid-November, after which they moved rapidly through Hudson Strait to winter in southern Davis Strait and the northern Labrador Sea, mostly north of 55°N. Many individuals stayed throughout the winter in areas of heavy ice cover. Adults from the two colonies appear to be completely segregated in winter and those from Coats Island probably did not enter the area of the winter hunt in Newfoundland. Unexpectedly, some birds from The Minarets wintered in waters beyond the continental slope and outside the distribution of pack ice, demonstrating that particular individuals can be wholly pelagic throughout the winter. Coats Island birds returned through Hudson Strait as soon as open water areas became available in spring. Their sojourn in Hudson Bay coincided very closely with the occurrence of areas with <90% ice cover. In spite of the relatively large error in positions obtained from geolocation loggers, our results demonstrated the value of these devices by uncovering a number of previously unknown aspects of Thick-billed Murre non-breeding ecology in the Northwest Atlantic. Comparison of the non-breeding ecology based on SST experienced in winter show that the winter niche is broader than hitherto assumed, demonstrating that separate populations may experience different selection in the face of climate change.     

Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

Functional autoregressive forecasting of long-term seabed evolution

There is a need for decadal predictions of the seabed evolution, for example to inform resurvey strategies when maintaining navigation channels. The understanding of the physical processes involved in morphological evolution, and the viability of process models to accurately model evolution over these time scales, are currently limited. As a result, statistical approaches are used to supply long-term forecasts. In this paper, we introduce a novel statistical approach for this problem: the autoregressive Hilbertian model (ARH). This model naturally assesses the time evolution of spatially-distributed measurements. We apply the technique to a coastal area in the East Anglian coast over the period 1846 to 2002, and compare with two other statistical methods used recently for seabed prediction: the autoregressive model and the EOF model. We evaluate the performance of the three methods by comparing observations and predictions for 2002. The ARH model enables a reduction of 10% of the root mean squared errors. Finally, we compute the variability in the predictions related to time sampling using the jackknife, a method that uses subsamples to quantify uncertainties.     

To preserve or to develop? East Bay dredging project,South Caicos,Turks and Caicos Islands

The Turks and Caicos Islands are currently in the midst of an economic revolution from a marine-based provisional economy to a tourism economy. East Bay, South Caicos, is currently under construction with plans for a 160-unit condominium complex. Included in the project plan is removal of seagrass beds in front of the development to make a sandy beach for tourists. The aims of this study were to (i) describe the bathymetry and benthic habitat coverage of East Bay before dredging takes place and (ii) perform an economic valuation on the turtle grass beds that will be dredged using ecosystem valuation and emergy analysis techniques. The bathymetry survey revealed shallow waters (<1.5 m) until the reef drop off (～650 m offshore). Benthic habitat exhibits zonation following the general progression: sand plain, algal plain, seagrass, coral rubble and seagrass, rock and turf algae, and reef flat. Ecosystem services valued the proposed dredging area at USD $28,807 per year, compared to emergy analysis, which valued the proposed dredging site at USD $32,060 per year. The baselines presented in the study may facilitate a quantitative assessment of dredging impacts on turtle grass once dredging is complete and an economical cost-benefit-analysis of the dredging project to see whether the economic gains outweigh the ecological costs of dredging in front of the East Bay development.     

Long-term changes of heavy metal and sulphur concentrations in ecosystems of the Taymyr Peninsula (Russian Federation) North of the Norilsk Industrial Complex

The Norilsk industrial ore smelting complex (Taymyr Peninsula, Russian Federation) has significantly impacted many components of local terrestrial and aquatic environments. Whether it has had a major impact on the wider Russian Arctic remains controversial as studies are scarce. From 1986 to 2004, data on heavy metal (Cu, Ni, Zn, Hg, Cd and Hg) concentrations in fish (burbot), moss, lichens, periphyton, hydric soils and snow in and around Norilsk and the most northern parts of the Taymyr Peninsula were analysed. Very high concentrations of Cu (203 μg L?1 ± 51 μg L?1) and Ni (113 μg L?1 ± 15 μg L?1) were found in the water of the Schuchya River close to Norilsk. Heavy metal concentrations in burbot liver were highest in Lake Pyasino near Norilsk compared to other study regions that were >100 km distant. From 1989-1996, Cu (121 μg L?1 ± 39 μg L?1 SD), Zn (150 μg L?1) ± 70 μg L?1) and Ni (149 μg L?1 ± 72 μg L?1) snow concentrations were greatest in Norilsk, but were low elsewhere. By 2004, these concentrations had dropped significantly, especially for Cu-74 μg L?1 (±18.7 μg L?1 SD), Zn-81.7 μg L?1 (± 31.3 μg L?1 SD) and Ni-80 μg L?1(±18.0 μg L?1 SD). Norilsk and its surroundings are subject to heavy pollution from the Norilsk metallurgical industry but these are absent from the greater Arctic region due to the prevailing winds and the Byrranga Mountains. Pollution abatement measures have been made so further investigations are necessary in order to assess their efficiency.     

In situ polar organic chemical integrative sampling (POCIS) of steroidal estrogens in sewage treatment works discharge and river water

A passive sampler (the polar organic chemical integrative sampler; POCIS) was assessed for its ability to sample natural estrogens (17β-estradiol, E2; estrone, E1 and estriol, E3) and the synthetic estrogen (17α-ethynylestradiol, EE2) in the outlet of a sewage treatment works over several weeks. The performance of the POCIS was investigated and optimised in the laboratory before field deployment with high recoveries (66-99%) were achieved for all estrogens. Moreover, it was shown that POCIS does not exhibit any preferential selectivity towards any of the target compounds. The sampling rates of E1, E2 and E3 were 0.018 ± 0.009, 0.025 ± 0.014 and 0.033 ± 0.019 L d(-1), respectively. Following field deployments of 28 days in the discharge of a sewage works, POCIS was shown to enhance the sensitivity of estrogen detection, especially for E3, and provide time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of E1, E2 and E3, ranging from undetectable to 12 ng L(-1) upstream of the outflow of a sewage treatment works, 13 to 91 ng L(-1) at the outflow and 8 to 39 ng L(-1) downstream of the outflow. This revealed that E1, E2 and E3 are not completely removed during sewage treatment, with concentrations most likely being maintained by contributions from conjugated estrogen analogues. Grab water samples showed considerable variation in the concentrations of estrogens over a longer period (6 months). The results confirm that POCIS is an effective and non-discriminatory method for the detection of low concentrations of estrogens in the aquatic environment.