COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

Body condition and immune response in wild zebra finches: effects of capture, confinement and captive-rearing

Behavioural ecologists attempt to predict fitness in birds from estimates of body condition and immune capacity. We investigated how the stresses associated with capture, confinement and captive-rearing of wild zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) affected different elements of the immune system and body condition. Wild birds had higher heterophil:lymphocyte ratios and total leucocyte counts than aviary birds, presumably an outcome of mounting specific resistance to pathogens, but this response diminished significantly within 10 days of confinement. Wild birds had lower phytohaemagglutinin-A (PHA) responses than their aviary-bred counterparts possibly because energetic costs limited a general resistance response. Wild birds were heavier and had higher haematocrits than their aviary counterparts, but had less fat, although just 10 days of captivity significantly increased fat levels. Measures of body condition were of limited use for predicting immune responsiveness. We conclude that the different elements of the immune system and body condition respond independently, and often unpredictably, to many ecological and behavioural stressors.