An Application of a Modified Ecological Footprint Method and Structural Path Analysis in a Comparative Institutional Study

This paper presents an application of a modified ecological footprint method, using a regional, disturbance-based approach. In contrast to conventional institutional ecological footprint calculations, energy and land use resulting from all upstream production processes are explored by employing an input-output framework. Ecological footprints are calculated for two research institutions: the School of Physics (SoP) at the University of Sydney, and the Sustainable Ecosystems (CSE) Department of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. These are broken down further in terms of land disturbance and greenhouse gas emissions, and as a function of production layer. To enable the use of the results in policy formulation, the ecological footprints are decomposed into detailed contributing paths, which are ranked according to their importance, using structural path analysis. The paper demonstrates that a considerable proportion of impacts occur upstream in industrial production. Thus a significant result of the study is the weight of obscure paths in the total footprints and, therefore, the importance of conducting an holistic assessment in order to ensure all upstream contributions are captured in the final impact of the institution.     

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Congenital myotonic dystrophy: An often unsuspected cause of severe polyhydramnios

Two cases of severe polyhydramnios are presented in which the unsuspected diagnosis of myotonic dystrophy was made in the patient and the fetus.     

The response of a mid- and high latitude peat bog to predicted climate change: methane production in a 12-month peat incubation

There are fears that global warming will lead to degradation of peatlands, higher emissions of greenhouse gases from peat, and accelerated warming. Anaerobic decomposition of organic soils produces methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas. Two peat bogs differing in mean annual temperature, Velke Darko (VD, Czech Republic, 7.2 °C), and Stor Åmyran (SA, Sweden, 4.0 °C), were selected for a comparative study of how organic soils in different climatic zones will respond to warmer and drier conditions. Twenty peat cores from each bog were incubated in growth chambers. Under present-day summer conditions, VD produced 14 times more CH₄ than SA. Two different warming scenarios were used. Peat-core replicates were kept at temperatures of 11 versus 16 °C, and 11 versus 22 °C. From 11 to 16 °C, the CH₄ production slightly decreased at SA, and slightly increased at VD. From 11 to 22 °C, the CH₄ production increased 9 times at SA, but slightly decreased at VD. After an 8-month incubation, peat cores under drying conditions (water table at ?14 cm) were compared to samples with original water table (?2 cm). Drying conditions led to a steeper reduction in CH₄ production at VD, compared to SA. The CH₄ production decreased more than 100 times at VD. Then, the combined effect of simultaneous warming and drying at 11 and 22 °C was studied. We did not find any significant effect of interactions between increasing temperature and decreasing water table level. Overall, the warmer site VD responded more strongly to the simulated climate change than the colder site SA.     

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100

This paper reviews the effects of past forest management on carbon stocks in the United States, and the challenges for managing forest carbon resources in the 21st century. Forests in the United States were in approximate carbon balance with the atmosphere from 1600-1800. Utilization and land clearing caused a large pulse of forest carbon emissions during the 19th century, followed by regrowth and net forest carbon sequestration in the 20th century. Recent data and knowledge of the general behavior of forests after disturbance suggest that the rate of forest carbon sequestration is declining. A goal of an additional 100 to 200 Tg C/yr of forest carbon sequestration is achievable, but would require investment in inventory and monitoring, development of technology and practices, and assistance for land managers.     

Fetal death secondary to needle laceration during 2nd trimester aminiocentesis: A case report

A case of fetal death secondary to a needle laceration during a second trimester amniocentesis is presented. The need for careful pathologic evaluation of fetuses lost subsequent to these procedures is stressed.     

Framework for participative reflection on the accomplishment of transdisciplinary research programs

In response to the increasingly complex social–ecological issues facing society, there is a growing trend to conduct environmental research in large collaborative programs. This approach is described as transdisciplinary research as it transcends formal disciplinary boundaries, explicitly acknowledges that many different perspectives are relevant to the resolution of complex problems, and actively involves the users of research. This poses challenges for the evaluation of “impact” as any evaluation process must take into consideration the different expectations, values, culture, language and reward structures of the main participating groups, the funders, researchers and end users. How can these participating groups learn about the progress of a transdisciplinary research program in a way that is purposeful and structured, continues through the life of the program, and includes explicit feedback mechanisms that facilitate adaptation during the course of the program? This paper presents a framework for co-reflecting on the accomplishment of transdisciplinary research programs. The framework incorporates the perspectives of funders, researchers and users, and recognizes that while they place different emphasis on measures of achievement such as efficiency, rigor and relevance, ultimate accomplishment in terms of translating knowledge into practice requires that the needs and expectations of all three groups are adequately addressed. What emerges from the framework is the importance of early investment in processes, behaviors and relationships that foster social learning and the co-production of the knowledge and understanding that are required to ensure relevance; while maintaining emphasis in the traditional areas of formally testing evidence and mentoring young researchers to ensure rigor and build confidence and capacity in transdisciplinary approaches.