Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.     

Population dynamics of naturalised Manila clams <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis> in British coastal waters

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum was introduced to Poole Harbour (lat 50°N) on the south coast of England in 1988 as a novel species for aquaculture. Contrary to expectations, this species naturalised. We report on individual growth patterns, recruitment, mortality and production within this population. On the intertidal mudflats the abundance of clams (>5 mm in length) varied seasonally between 18 and 56 individuals m⁻². There appear to be two recruitment events per year and there were 6 year classes in the population. A mid-summer decline in abundance was partly due to increased mortality but probably also a result of down-shore migration in response to high water temperatures and the development of anoxic conditions. A winter fishery removes c 75% of clams of fishable size (maximum shell length ≥40 mm) and c 20% of the annual production. The fishery depresses the maximum age and size attained by the clams but appears to be sustainable. Clam mortality due to factors other than fishing is highest in late-winter to early spring. The growth of the clams is intermediate in comparison with many published studies but remarkably good given their intertidal position. As on the coasts of the Adriatic Sea, where the clam is also non-native, the Manila clam has thrived in a shallow, eutrophic, lagoon-like system on the English coast. While the Poole Harbour population is currently Europe’s most northerly reported self-sustaining, naturalised population, given forecasts of increasing air and sea temperatures it might be expected that this species will eventually spread to more sites around the coasts of Northern Europe with associated economic and ecological consequences.     

The nesting of the Pacific ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea on Playa Nancite,Costa Rica

A study of the nesting of the Pacific ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea was undertaken in Costa Rica on Playa Nancite — one of two beaches on which the authors had, the previous year, discovered large nesting aggregations of this species. During the 3 1/2-month period of this study, approximately 288,000 turtles nested on the 1300 m-long beach. About 99% of these nested during 3 periods of mass-nesting (arribadas). The predictability of the arribadas was investigated by observing and recording environmental parameters with which they may be correlated. The mass-nesting phenomenon, aspects of nesting behavior, and the adaptive advantages of mass-nesting are discussed. During the period of study, nearly 2,000 turtles were tagged, 102 of which were subsequently recovered. Carapace lengths and widths of 251 tagged turtles were measured. The emergence of hatchlings was recorded daily and, from these data, the incubation period and an indication of egg and hatchling survival was obtained. The activities of the various predators on eggs, hatchlings, and adults are described.     

Using forest inventory data to assess fisher resting habitat suitability in California.

The fisher (Martes pennanti) is a forest-dwelling carnivore whose current distribution and association with late-seral forest conditions make it vulnerable to stand-altering human activities or natural disturbances. Fishers select a variety of structures for daily resting bouts. These habitat elements, together with foraging and reproductive (denning) habitat, constitute the habitat requirements of fishers. We develop a model capable of predicting the suitability of fisher resting habitat using standard forest vegetation inventory data. The inventory data were derived from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA), a nationwide probability-based sample used to estimate forest characteristics. We developed the model by comparing vegetation and topographic data at 75 randomly selected fisher resting structures in the southern Sierra Nevada with 232 forest inventory plots. We collected vegetation data at fisher resting locations using the FIA vegetation sampling protocol and centering the 1-ha FIA plot on the resting structure. To distinguish used and available inventory plots, we used nonparametric logistic regression to evaluate a set of a priori biological models. The top model represented a dominant portion of the Akaike weights (0.87), explained 31.5% of the deviance, and included the following variables: average canopy closure, basal area of trees <51 cm diameter breast height (dbh), average hardwood dbh, maximum tree dbh, percentage slope, and the dbh of the largest conifer snag. Our use of routinely collected forest inventory data allows the assessment and monitoring of change in fisher resting habitat suitability over large regions with no additional sampling effort. Although models were constrained to include only variables available from the list of those measured using the FIA protocol, we did not find this to be a shortcoming. The model makes it possible to compare average resting habitat suitability values before and after forest management treatments, among administrative units, across regions and over time. Considering hundreds of plot estimates as a sample of habitat conditions over large spatial scales can bring a broad perspective, at high resolution, and efficiency to the assessment and monitoring of wildlife habitat.     

Brevetoxin exposure in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) associated with Karenia brevis blooms in Sarasota Bay, Florida

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) face a variety of threats, including risk of exposure to brevetoxins produced by blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis. This study investigated brevetoxin exposure in a population of dolphins inhabiting Sarasota Bay, Florida, USA (27°N, 82°W), utilizing tissues from dolphins recovered between 1994 and 2003. Brevetoxin levels detected by ELISA in tissues, gastric samples and excreta from dolphin carcasses (n = 19) associated with K. brevis blooms were compared with with levels in carcasses (n = 16) associated with background K. brevis conditions. In the K. brevis-exposed set, 84% of dolphin carcasses recovered during K. brevis blooms had detectable brevetoxin levels, with values ranging between 7 and 2,896 ng PbTx-3 eq g⁻¹. Over 50% of dolphin carcasses recovered during non-bloom conditions also tested positive by ELISA for brevetoxins, with concentrations ranging from 6 to 44 ng PbTx-3 eq g⁻¹. Control samples from the east coast of Florida were negative by the ELISA. Results from this study establish baseline brevetoxin body burdens in a dolphin population frequently exposed to K. brevis blooms, and data indicate that dolphin carcasses not associated with large-scale mortality events can contain levels of brevetoxins comparable to carcasses stranding during such events.     

Colony foundation and polygyny in the ant Formica podzolica

We document the variation in number of queens occurring naturally in founding, immature and mature nests of the ant Formica podzolica, and compare development of colonies and survivorship of queens in experimental nests started with 1–16 foundresses. Number of queens per nest was associated with stage of colony development. Most nests were monogynous, but 20% of immature nests (n = 66) and 25% of mature nests (n = 92) were oligogynous or polygynous. Colonies were usually established by single queens (i.e., haplometrosis), but colony establishment by multiple queens (i.e., pleometrotis) was also common, occurring in 27% of founding nests (n = 492). Foundress groups in the field were small ( = 1.47 ± 0.04 queens/nest), and large groups experienced high mortality and low productivity in artificial nests. Therefore, the many queens (up to 140) in some immature and mature colonies were probably secondarily pleometrotic. Experimental nests started with 1–4 queens were more successful than those initiated by 8 or 16 queens. Small groups (2–4 queens) produced more pupae before the first nests reared workers than single foundresses or larger groups (8 or 16 queens). Although single foundresses were less productive than queens in small groups, they experienced greater survivorship and less weight loss than queens in pleometrotic associations. Besides low productivity, queen mortality and weight loss were greatest in large groups.     

Naturally occurring radionuclides in drinking water: An exercise in risk benefit analysis

The scientific background information describing the occurrence, measurement, health effects, treatment technology, risk assessment and economic consequences of the presence of naturally occurring radionuclides in drinking water are described for 60,000 public drinking water supplies. The relevant data for the occurrence of radium, uranium and radon in drinking water supplies are discussed and analysed. Radon is of importance because it is released in the process of taking showers and baths and in washing dishes and clothes. Its progeny is then inhaled, leading to the risk of lung cancer. Radium and uranium can both cause bone cancer. The range of average occurrence of natural radioactivity in drinking water is as follows:²²⁶Ra, 0.3 to 0.8 pCi L^–1;²²⁸Ra, 0.4 to 1.0 pCi L^–1; uranium, 0.3 to 2.0 pCi L^–1 and²²²Rn, 500 to 600 pCi L^–1. The estimated lifetime risks due to the mean groundwater concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides are:²²⁶Ra and^228Ra, 1.0 10^–5; uranium, 2.0 × 10^–6 and radon, 4.0 × 10^–4. The cost to reduce total radium levels to 5.0 pCi L^–1 is about $9 million. An equivalent expenditure would be required to reduce radon levels to about 4,000 pCi L^–1, or uranium levels to about 100 pCi L^–1. The problem of maximizing the total mortality and the reduction per unit dollar outlay per unit dollar cost for the uranium/radon case is examined.The thoughts and ideas expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the US Environmental Protection Agency.This paper is published as a contribution to discussion on this problem and not as a paper providing new research data.     

Environmental economics: An evolutionary critique and a plea for pluralism

Environmental economics is a contradiction in terms. The contradiction is intuitive to the puzzled lay person inquiring about the nature of our subdiscipline. It is explicit to those who think of environmental systems in terms of complex, evolving interconnectedness and identify the economic model with the atomistic and mechanistic assumptions of classical mechanics. Within the subdiscipline, we try to resolve the contradiction by internalizing externalities, by matching market feedbacks with environmental relations. While acknowledging that insights can be drawn from the market view of environmental problems, I argue in this essay that (1) the contradiction is nerver resolved; (2) multiple, incongruous perspectives are all we have for understanding the interface between economic and environmental systems; and (3) environmental economics will thrive with a return to philosophical pluralism, to the open acceptance of the contradiction.     

Ecological impacts on the limpet Lottia gigantea populations: human pressure over a broad scale on island and mainland intertidal zones

Here long-term monitoring data taken at 33 sites in southern and central California coast and islands were used to evaluate the size structure of the large intertidal limpet, Lottia gigantea in restricted-access and in easily accessible intertidal zones that encompass a wide range of ecological variables. Using multi-dimensional analysis of population size structures, we found that sites on islands and strictly protected mainland sites have significantly larger median limpet sizes and a greater range of limpet sizes than unprotected mainland sites, while no pattern occurs in latitudinal or regional comparison of sites. Although intertidal predators such as oystercatchers were not the primary focus of the monitoring efforts, extensive natural history notes taken during sampling visits support the argument that predation was not a primary cause for the size structure differences. Finally, substratum differences were determined not to have biased the observation of larger limpets in protected sites. In regard to human interactions with limpets, we conclude that the degree of enforcement against poaching is the better predictor of limpet size structure than proximity to population centers or visitation to intertidal sites.